The Russian Election Compendium

RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
December 8, 1995, No. 12

Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government

To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including a "betting chart." Individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.

I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December 1995

A. Individuals	Likelihood	Change From Last Month
Graham Allison (12/7): Director SDI Project	95%	+10%
Sergei Grigoriev (12/7): SDI Project Fellow Former Spokesman for Gorbachev	85%	+10%
John Lloyd Former Moscow Bureau Chief Financial Times
Matthew Lantz (12/7) SDI Project	95%	+20%
B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections:

- CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC) CHIEF NIKOLAI RYABOV ON THE ELECTIONS: 43 parties will appear on the ballot for the December 17 election. 5675 candidates will compete for the 225 list seats, while 2700 candidates will compete for the 225 single member districts. This includes 1000 candidates registered as independents for the single member districts. Seven blocs have the greatest presence in the regions. The LDPR is running 187 single district candidates; the Communists (CP- RF) are running 131; Our Home is Russia (NDR) - 108; Congress of Russian Communities (KRO) - 90; the Agrarians - 90; Russia's Democratic Choice - 75; and Yabloko - 71. There are an average of 12 candidates per district. Women make up 10% of the candidates. Current deputies are 7% of all candidates, Muscovites are greater than 20% of the candidates. 5% of the candidates are under 30, 30% are between the ages of 40 and 50, and 4% are older than 60. 374 billion rubles ($83 million) will be spent on campaigning. Over 104 million individuals are registered to vote. RYABOV went on to say, "I am certain that current legislation, along with proper activities of election observers, excludes any chance of falsification." (Interfax 11/28, OMRI supl. 12/1)

- RUSSIAN COURT REFUSES TO HEAR CASE ON OVERTURNING ELECTION LAW: The Russian Constitutional Court continued its tradition of avoiding conflict by refusing to hear the case brought by over 100 Duma deputies that attempted to strike down the 5% hurdle in the elections law. Many feared a court hearing so close to the vote would jeopardize the election. No explanation was given by the Court as to why it would not hear the law, but at least one Justice was unhappy with the ruling. Justice ERNEST AMETISTOV claims the ruling was based on expediency, not principle. The only way the court can turn down a case, according to AMETISTOV, is when the issue is not a constitutional matter, clearly this case is. (Financial Times, Washington Post, OMRI, 11/21, Interfax 11/28)

- MEDIA CAMPAIGN CONTINUES: The first series of free TV appearances have met with tepid reviews. Nezavisimaya Gazeta called the first wave "boring and banal" with most parties having nothing to say. The Moscow Times called the speeches long on sincerity and short on fantasy. Both Russian public TV (ORT) and Russian TV are airing one hour of free air time a day for the parties. Most times are allocated in 7« minute slots. What the free TV messages have lacked for fantasy, the paid commercial have made up. The porno-political genre has been invented by VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY's LDPR (see section III below). As of November 28, 20 of the 43 parties had purchased paid air time for December. Ironically, the most popular party, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, has not purchased commercial time. (NG 11/17, MT 11/16, Financial Times 12/1, OMRI supl. 11/28)

- FINANCES AND THE ELECTION. The CEC announced the amount of funds in the campaign accounts of various parties. Many of the numbers appear questionable. Highest was the LDPR with $2.2 million. Then came Russia's Democratic Choice with $666,666; Rybkin Bloc - $288,888; Women of Russia - $151,111; Agrarians - $57,777; KRO - $56,222; Beer Lovers - $53,333; CP-RF $52,888. Our Home is Russia claimed to have only the funds given to it by the CEC ($17,777) of which it had not spent any. This assertion raised more than a few eyebrows, since the NDR campaign has been so extravagant thus far - hosting Western singers and German Supermodel fashion shows. Accordingly, the CEC threatened to investigate NDR's funds, which prompted NDR to revise its estimates. Much campaign financing goes unreported through cash transactions. (Interfax 11/22, 11/24, OMRI supl. 11/28, NYT 12/6)

- INTERNET USED TO PREVENT RUSSIAN ELECTION FRAUD: The Center for Mass Media Studies and other Russian on-line groups have combined efforts to create an independent public watch network to deter election fraud. The "Elections '95" database will have available public regulations, legislation, and factual data which can be accessed by internet users to ensure that the election laws are being carried out properly. (Moscow Times 11/16)

C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary Elections:

- ALEXANDER SOBYANIN CLAIMS MANY PARTIES FALSIFIED SIGNATURES: SOBYANIN states only 12 of the 43 parties are running more than 40 candidates in the single member districts. To run in a single member district a candidate needs to collect 5000 signatures, which can then be applied toward a party's 200,000 signature requirement. If all parties needed 200,000 signatures to register, why are only 12 of them running a significant number of regional candidates? SOBYANIN claims the parties purchased the lists and provided false documents to the CEC in Moscow. (OMRI supl. 12/5)

- DEMOCRATS COMPETE AGAINST EACH OTHER IN REGIONS: Apparently failing to learn their lesson from two years ago, many regional democratic candidates risk splitting the reform vote by competing against one another. Although the Moscow leaders have stressed cooperation, regional activists have not always heeded their leaders' wishes. Even Yabloko leader GRIGORY YAVLINSKY admitted at a press conference on 12/5 some districts failed to put forward only one reform candidate. Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports in the majority of Moscow districts, three to four democrats are competing along side each other. Why? A number of reasons are likely. First, when the Moscow leaders choose a candidate, the rank and file candidates may resent being replaced and decide to run as independents. Second, some do not believe polls that they will lose and refuse to yield to a more viable candidate. Finally, some have received money to campaign and fear they will have to pay it back if they do not run. (OMRI supl 12/1, NG 11/29, Interfax 12/5)

- WHY SO MANY PARTIES? In 1993, 13 parties competed for the Duma elections, in this election 43 parties are competing. Why the proliferation? GLEB CHERKASOV writing in Segodnya claims in 1990 Democratic Russia and the Democratic Party of Russia had legitimate ideologies and real support groups. By 1993 the population had tired of politics, and parties began to represent a few permanent politicians who were full-time functionaries. Now party members are not interested in a party's doctrine, but merely where one stands on the party election list. The Communists and Agrarians are the closest thing to legitimate parties in Russia. YELTSIN recently complained about the number of parties saying, "Voters are totally confused. They cannot tell the parties apart." (OMRI supl. 11/21, Boston Globe 11/29)

- BOMB EXPLODES IN DUMA DEPUTY'S OFFICE: A grenade-type bomb exploded in the office of nationalist deputy NIKOLAI LYSENKO. No one was injured in the attack. Speculation surrounding the assault ranged from Chechen rebels; (LYSENKO is an outspoken critic of Chechen independence) to LYSENKO planting the bomb himself to garner support for his party's lagging political campaign. (Boston Globe 12/6)

II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June

A. Individual	Likelihood	Change From Last Week
Graham Allison	50%
Sergei Grigoriev	50%
John Lloyd
Matthew Lantz	45%

- NEW PARTY ESTABLISHED BY FEDERATION COUNCIL SPEAKER VLADIMIR SHUMEIKO TO SUPPORT INSTITUTION OF PRESIDENCY: The new party, called Russia Reforms - New Course, will support a presidential candidate (most likely YELTSIN if he runs). The party will provide a base of support for the head of state when dealing with politics and other decisions. SHUMEIKO claimed popular Sverdlovsk governor EDUARD ROSSEL had joined the bloc. At the moment, ROSSEL's status is still undetermined. (Interfax 11/24, OMRI 11/27)

III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?

A. Individuals
Graham Allison		John Lloyd
Communist Party (CP-RF)	20%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky)	19%
Our Home (NDR)	15%
Congress of R. Communities	12%
(Lebed-KRO)
Agrarian Party	10%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky)	6%
Women of Russia	5%
Russia's Choice (Gaidar)	5%
Sergei Grigoriev		Matthew Lantz
Communist Party (CP-RF)	22%	CP-RF	25%
KRO (Lebed)	15%	KRO	15%
Agrarian Party	12%	Yabloko	14%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky)	10%	NDR	9%
Women of Russia	9%	Agrarians	9%
NDR (Chernomyrdin)	8%	Women of R	8%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky)	7%	LDPR	7%
Russia's Choice	5%	RChoice	3%
		Independents	10%
B. Party Officials' Predictions:

- GEORGY SATAROV, presidential advisor: Maximum of five parties clear the 5% hurdle: CP-RF, NDR, Yabloko, KRO, and one other. (OMRI 12/1)

- GENNADY ZYUGAVOV, Chairman, CP-RF: In the next parliament will be: CP-RF, Agrarians, LDPR, Yabloko, NDR, KRO. (Interfax 11/18)

- ANATOLY LUKYANOV, leader, CP-RF: CP-RF/Agrarians 30%; National/Patriots (esp. KRO) 20%; Democrats 30%, LDPR clears hurdle, NDR slightly less. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)

- ALEXANDER VENGEROVSKY, Deputy Chief, LDPR: LDPR 1st; KRO 12%; CP- RF 8%; NDR next; Yabloko not in Duma. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)

- BORIS FEDOROV, Chairman, Forward Russia!: CP-RF 15%; Yabloko 10%; KRO 7%; NDR 4.9%; Russia's Choice not in Duma. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)

- BORIS ZOLOTUKHIN, Deputy Chief, Russia's Choice: six parties in Duma: Russia's Democratic Choice, Yabloko, CP-RF, Women of Russia, NDR, KRO. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)

- NIKOLAI KHARITONOV, Deputy Chief, Agrarian Party: Up to - of Duma controlled by Agrarians, CP-RF, and proponents of "great power" including My Fatherland, Derzhava, and Power to the People.; LDPR 11-13%; NDR 8-11%; Women of Russia 7-9%; Yabloko 7-8%. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 11/21)

-LEONID SEDOV, Deputy Director of All Russian Center for Russian Public Opinion; CP-RF 35%, Yabloko 17%, Women of Russia 16%, NDR 15%.

C. New Evidence:

- OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (NDR) (Pro-government/PM Victor Chernomyrdin): After repeated poor showings in the polls, NDR is beginning to use its advantage as the "party of power" to gain privileges while campaigning. It has utilized its connection with Russian public TV to run campaign ads disguised as documentaries. In one such 15 minute advertisement, voters are reminded that the Communists persecuted intellectuals. Another reminds voters that shelves were empty under Communism. Whether the new negative advertisements will enhance CHERNOMYRDIN's bloc's chances is debatable. In 1993, VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY did well despite the ruling party's attempted negative campaign against his party. (NYT 12/6) NDR bookkeeping has also come into question. Despite spending extravagantly on Western performers, NDR beer and chocolate, and campaign commercials, the party claimed to only have received its federal funds and not to have spent any of it yet. Once the CEC threatened to investigate NDR's records, a new statement was submitted. (NYT 12/6, OMRI supl. 12/5) The NDR campaign themes have stressed a party that promises only what it can fulfill and is not afraid of the responsibility of running the country. However, being the governing party, NDR is the only party that cannot take the universally popular opposition stance. NDR has been criticized for repeating the mistakes of the 1993 ruling party, Russia's Choice. It has underestimated the appeal of opposition forces and assumes the support of local elites in the regions will translate into popular support. Since many of the regional governors have been appointed by YELTSIN and not elected, they may not have the backing of their local constituencies. (OMRI supl. 11/28) Even members of the party have been critical of the NDR campaign strategy. KONSTANTIN TITOV, the governor of Samara, and the deputy chair of NDR gives the bloc a C+ for its regional campaigning efforts and advertisement. (OMRI 12/1) However, NDR campaign manager SERGEI BELAYEV defends his party's activities and warns of a potential Communist/Agrarian victory. "There are good people in the Agrarian and Communist parties, but they will bring to power others who will wring their necks and ours as well." (Moskovsky Novosti 12/1, OMRI supl. 12/1)

- COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (CP-RF) (Left/Gennady Zyuganov): As the election nears, polls show the CP-RF continuing to lead the other parties (see Section V below). Throughout the month party leader ZYUGANOV has given speeches stressing the Communist party economic and political platform. The CP-RF seeks to change economic policy to stimulate production; it recognizes multiple forms of property, but gives preference to collectivized property; it seeks to regulate prices on energy resources, and seeks state control over transportation, the energy fuel complex, and the defense industry. The party still seeks foreign investment in Russia. ZYUGANOV has stated he admires the Chinese economic model, and claims his party proposes a balanced and stable economic policy. (OMRI supl. 11/21, 12/5, Interfax 11/22) ZYUGANOV claims the reintegration of the former Soviet republics is inevitable, and recommends restoring full contact with Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan immediately without encroaching on their sovereignty. The other CIS states can ask to be accepted back, and Russia will deal with them on a case-by-case scenario. (Segodnya 11/29) To the West, ZYUGANOV continues to strike a more conciliatory tone. He promises no mass reversal of privatization and says the Western nations should not fear the Communists. He believes the shift to the left in the Duma is natural, like a pendulum. ZYUGANOV claims it "will be beneficial to all if reasonable-minded forces rather than radical-wing forces come to power and ensure stability." (OMRI supl. 12/5, Interfax 11/28) ZYUGANOV maintains his party is working with similar-minded parties in the regions. Agreements between the CP-RF, the Agrarian Party, and the smaller Power to the People bloc to run only one left-wing candidate per district have been reached in 54 single mandate districts. ZYUGANOV also claims, despite KRO party leader YURI SKOKOV's denial, the CP-RF continues to hold a dialogue with KRO. (Segodnya 11/16, Interfax 11/28). The free TV appearances by the CP-RF have been serious affairs. ZYUGANOV explains his economic programs, while his fellow party leaders stand stoically behind him. He advises the audience not to fear the Communists, but to fear provocateurs, swindlers, thieves, and loss of control over nuclear weapons. The CP-RF has thus far not run a paid TV advertisement, preferring to campaign face-to-face. (Moscow Times 11/16, Financial Times 12/1, Interfax 11/22)

- CONGRESS OF RUSSIAN COMMUNITIES (KRO) (Moderate Nationalist/Yuri Skokov, Alexander Lebed, Sergei Glazyev): KRO continues to advance in the polls as it prepares for the elections. Moskovsky Pravda praised KRO as the "most promising party to join the election fray." KRO has moved beyond its three primary leaders to gain support of prominent second and third echelon elites in many regions including politicians, trade union representatives, and journalists. KRO politician SERGEI GLAZYEV is using the regional branches of his party, the Democratic Party of Russia, to support the party in the regions. KRO weakest regional link is its single mandate candidates. Much of this regional support may only translate into list votes and not district seats. (Pravda 11/16) KRO's advertising campaign has won praise. In a notable campaign commercial, a voice says the Congress of Russian Communities warns all bureaucrats not to take bribes. The black and white picture shows an outstretched hand taking money. The picture then cuts to a color shot of GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED in full uniform. He says directly to the camera, "I strongly advise against it." KRO has also run front page advertisements in Moskovsky Komsomolets asking for voters' ideas and experiences to help KRO revitalize Russia. (Financial Times 12/1, OMRI supl. 11/21) Deputy Executive Committee Chair SERGEI PYKHTIN stated he believed voting should be compulsory in Russia, but would deny 10-12 million foreigners living in Russia the right to vote because they were not ethnic Russians. He would exclude non-Russian nationalities of the former Soviet Union who still live within Russia. (OMRI 11/30). An article in the newspaper Trud claimed KRO was winning support from the Communists. Members of the Communist party are apparently upset with ZYUGANOV for signing a non-aggression pact with Prime Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN. They are also supposedly displeased that the CP-RF has supported the budget thus far. The article claims local Communists have assisted in organizing regional speeches by KRO leader GENERAL LEBED. (OMRI 11/24) Both GENERAL LEBED and YURI SKOKOV have said over the last two weeks that they intend to run for president. This could imply tension underneath the surface within the KRO leadership. When asked about the issue, both leaders deny any difficulty and claim the story is fabricated by the press to discredit KRO's electoral chances. Officially, both leaders have vowed not to discuss the presidential elections until after the parliamentary elections, but both have neglected this rule. (OMRI 11/21)

- YABLOKO (Reformist/Grigory Yavlinsky): Yabloko continues to be the only popular reform-oriented party in the elections. YAVLINSKY stands for free market reform without being tainted by unpopular policies. YAVLINSKY explained the popularity of his agenda to the New York Times saying, "You have to assure voters reforms will improve their lives." (NYT 12/1) The Yabloko leader explained his program to Russian voters on Russian TV. He advocates first and foremost reducing the Russian dependency on exports of raw material. He also seeks to correct privatization flaws and revive the far east. Finally, he seeks to rebuild the ties with the CIS. YAVLINSKY claimed not only could the current president not solve these problems, he could not even identify them. (OMRI 12/6) A month and a half after the Yabloko ban, the party seems to have suffered no permanent damage from the fiasco. However, conspiracy theories abound over the original intent of the ban. DMITRI OLSHANSKY, director of the Center for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting claims the ban was meant to serve one of four purposes: to encourage democratic parties to unite, to boost YAVLINSKY's popularity against the Communists, to show the West there is no alternative to the ailing Yeltsin, or to attempt to postpone the elections. (Vek no. 45, OMRI supl. 12/1) In late November, all of the Yabloko leaders attended a ceremony commemorating the start of the Chechen War. Yabloko leader VICTOR SHEINIS blamed the Duma for not backing a Yabloko initiative last November that would have prohibited funds for the war. YAVLINSKY stated the only a president who had no ties with the start of the war, could end the war. (OMRI 11/23) At the same rally, YAVLINSKY called for a coalition government, not of one party, but of like-minded groups that would follow the same path and not suffer infighting. Yabloko has been one of the most united blocs in the Duma. (OMRI 11/23) At a press conference on December 5, YAVLINSKY stated the Communists did not need to campaign because the current government policy of delaying pensions was doing their work for them. The poor NDR showing, according to YAVLINSKY, could result in the removal of CHERNOMRYDIN. YAVLINSKY believes the democrats will likely be the minority in the new Duma, and that there will be a basis for cooperation between democratic forces as the presidential campaign nears. (Interfax 12/5) Finally, Segodnya wrote an article claiming Yabloko has backing from most major reform newspapers including: Izvestiya, Obshchaya Gazeta, Moskovsky Novosti, and Moskovsky Komsomolets. (Segodnya 11/29)

- AGRARIAN PARTY (Left - Mikhail Lapshin): VASILY STARODUBTSEV, an Agrarian Party senior official, last week blamed the West for Russia's problems. "Western capitalists have given a special order to destroy our great country and its economy...(they) have been extremely successful." He went on to say land should belong to the entire nation, and that it is unacceptable to have any sale or purchase of land used for agricultural purposes. (OMRI supl. 12/5) Although both parties are promising to cooperate in single mandate races, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation appears to be cutting into the popularity of the Agrarian Party at the regional level. The CP-RF is more popular because voters prefer Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV to Agrarian leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN. (OMRI 12/1)

- LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA (LDPR) (Nationalist/Vladimir Zhirinovsky): The government paper Rossisky Vesti claims the LDPR belongs in a museum. Unlike the rest of the country the party has not evolved since its founding in 1990. The LDPR's success stems from its ability to attract publicity, its insatiable will for power, and ZHIRINOVSKY'S oratory abilities. ZHIRINOVSKY will have difficulty attracting his old electorate and winning a new one with KRO in the race. For years, the article claims, the LDPR ignored the regions and now it will lose support to KRO there. (11/28) Potential electoral troubles aside, ZHIRINOVSKY is still a master at causing scandals. In this campaign, his election commercials have inspired a name for a new genre, porno-political. In a series of ads, a sultry night club singer undresses herself in front of the patrons singing, "Only you make life interesting." Behind her, some of ZHIRINOVSKY's more memorable moments are seen, including throwing orange juice on the governor of Nizhnii Novgorod and striking a female deputy last September in the Duma. (Financial Times 12/1) ZHIRINOVSKY also made an appeal to church patrons while attending a conference on Russian in the 21st century. He claimed he sees the Orthodox Church as the basis for Russia's spiritual revival and that Orthodox Christianity should be the only state-recognized religion. (OMRI 12/5)

- RUSSIA'S DEMOCRATIC CHOICE - UNITED DEMOCRATS (RDC) (Reformist/Yegor Gaidar): Prospects for YEGOR GAIDAR's party to clear the 5% hurdle continue to look dim. However, GADAIR is still campaigning vigorously and warning of the dangers of returning the Communists to power. One RDC campaign poster has an old couple armed with pistols with the words "Communist Revanche?" above it. On TV GAIDAR acknowledged he was still blamed for many of the faults of current Russian society, even though he had been out of power for almost three years and had disagreed with many government policies. He stated he was often asked what he did with the state savings. He replies it was gone before I got there. (OMRI supl. 11/21, Moscow Times 11/16). While recognizing his party has lost support, GAIDAR believes his party will receive votes from the intelligentsia, entrepreneurs, private enterprise owners, and young people. He claims his party evaluates each policy on its own merit and therefore will sometimes vote with the government and other times against it. (OMRI supl. 11/28) An article in Novoe Vremya advised GAIDAR to hold on. In another ten years he will have a political resurrection when today's children who have never lived under Communist rule will be able to vote. Gaidar is only 40. (OMRI supl. 12/1)Financial Times 11/14)

- FORWARD RUSSIA! (Populist-Reformist/Boris Fedorov): Former Finance Minister BORIS FEDOROV has stepped up his populist rhetoric and campaign. In the last two weeks he has claimed the democrats have never been in power. The president and the prime minister were both senior officials in the old CPSU. The Agrarian Party should be held responsible for its share of the blame. Last year 27% of the budget went to the agriculture sector and grain productivity dropped by 23%. His negative campaigning has attacked a "monstrous present and a glorious future" politics of other parties. He also claimed Russia could not afford to take a chance on inexperienced politicians like Lebed. He proposed keeping generals in the army and out of politics. (OMRI supl. 12/5) At a party conference on December 2, party members signed a "Contract With Russia" promising to follow strict adherence to the Russian constitution and laws, to eliminate nomenklatura privileges, to impose tougher sanction on crime, and to hold a referendum within a year on a union with Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. (OMRI 12/4) One Forward Russia! billboard says 50,000,000 victims of civil war, collectivization, and repression would not vote for ZYUGANOV, - BORIS FEDOROV, FORWARD RUSSIA! (omri supl. 11/28)

IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?

A. Individuals
Graham Allison		Matthew Lantz		Sergei Grigoriev
Yavlinsky	15%	Cherno	30%	Lebed	30%
Lebed	15%	Lebed	20%	Zyuganov	15%
Chernomyrdin	15%	Yavlinsky	17%	Yavlinsky	10%
Yeltsin	10%	Yeltsin	5%	Chernomyrdin	10%
		Zyuganov	5%	Zhirinovsky	7%
		Zhirinovsky	3%	Yeltsin	<5%

- YELTSIN RELEASED FROM HOSPITAL TO A CONVALESCENCE HOME. Reports say his health is improving, but many believe he will not be able to run for a second term. Thus far, he has not taken an active part in the Duma election. (Financial Times 11/28)

- CANDIDATES PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: Numerous candidates are preparing themselves for a run for Russia's presidency. Many consider the Duma election as a primary of sorts for the June 16 presidential elections. Those who have expressed interest in running include: GRIGORY YAVLINSKY, who claims to already have 800,000 of the necessary 1,000,000 signatures; GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED, who stated contingent on the parliamentary elections, he would likely run; his KRO co-leader, YURI SKOKOV, which could lead to disruption in the KRO leadership; Prime Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN; former Vice President ALEXANDER RUTSKOI, who leads the Derzhava bloc; LDPR Chair VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY; Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV; film director and Democratic Party of Russia leader STANISLAV GOVORUKHIN; and former USSR President MIKHAIL GORBACHEV.(Komsomolskaya Pravda 11/15, OMRI 11/17)

V. Polling Results For Elections

A. Parliament and Party Polls:

- Obshchaya Gazeta predicted in its Nov. 16-22 issue with the 5% barrier in place the CP-RF, KRO, Yabloko, NDR,and perhaps the Agrarian party and the LDPR would earn places in the Duma.

- Vox Populi polled 400 Russian political, business, military, and intellectual elite to discover who they thought would attain seats in the new Duma. Reported in Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 11/21.

Party	% of polled who feel party will get into Duma
1. CP-RF	91.9%
2. NDR	84.0%
3. Yabloko	75.1%
4. LDPR	71.5%
5. Agrarians	68.0%
6. KRO	59.2%
7. Women of Russia	48.5%
8. Russia's Choice	28.7%
9. Forward Russia	7.3%

- The Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center, a group that ranks parties and individuals according to ten parameters such as party organization and charisma of party leaders, expects the following results for the parliamentary elections. Reported in Moskovskaya Pravda 11/21 and Interfax 11/22.

1. CP-RF	7.4%
2. KRO	7.1%
3. Women of Russia	6.6%
4. NDR (Cherno.)	6.5%
5. Yabloko	6.4%
6. LDPR	6.0%
7. Agrarian	5.9%

As for the popularity of the party troikas (the top three leaders of each party.)

1. KRO (Skokov, Lebed, Glazyev)
2. NDR (Chernomyrdin, Mikhailov, Rokhlin)
3. LDPR (Zhirinovsky, Abeltsev, Vengerosky)

- The Public Opinion Foundation claimed in Interfax on Nov. 27 that based on their polling, the CP-RF will be the undisputed winner of the election with 20-25% of the electorate voting for it. Far behind will be Yabloko, Women of Russia, NDR, KRO, and LDPR.

- A VCIOM poll studied the popularity of parties among differing demographics. The poll was conducted between Nov. 1994 and March 1995. Reported in OMRI supl. 12/1.

- The Agrarian Party and Yabloko are more popular among women.
- LDPR and Russia's Democratic Choice are more popular among men.
- Women of Russia, Russia's Democratic Choice, and LDPR collect
younger votes.
- CP-RF and the Agrarian Party collect older votes
- Russia's Democratic Choice and Yabloko voters are the most educated.
- LDPR and Agrarian voters are less well educated.
- LDPR, Agrarian, and Communist voters are the least educated.
- Reform parties are best represented in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
- Yabloko, CP-RF and LDPR do well in large cities.
- Women of Russia and CP-RF do well in small cities.
- The Agrarian Party and CP-RF do well in rural settings.
- The rich vote for Yabloko and Russia's Democratic Choice.
- The middle class votes for Yabloko.
- The poor vote for Women of Russia, CP-RF, and the LDPR.

- Vox Populi reported in the 12/2 Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the following parties would clear the 5% hurdle: CP-RF, NDR, KRO, Agrarians, LDPR, Women of Russia. Women of Russia and KRO improved dramatically since the last poll on 11/21, while Yabloko and Russia's Democratic Choice fell.

- The Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center predicts for the next six months, the influence of the CP-RF will decline while KRO's will increase. Reported in Choice of the Regions #2, 11/27.

The most influential politicians will be:
1. Chernomyrdin
2. Yeltsin
3. Luzhkov (Moscow Mayor)
4. Lebed
5. Yavlinsky
6. Zyuganov
7. Skokov
8. Korzhakov (Yeltsin's bodyguard)
9. Soskovets (First Deputy Prime Minister)
10. Barsukov (Head of Federal Security Service)

- Pollster Dmitri Olshansky of the Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center says in OMRI on 12/5 that only 55% of Russia's 104 million registered voters will vote. Of those, 10% may spoil their ballot, so parties will compete for 45% of registered voters. The results in the list voting will be:

1. CP-RF	14%
2. NDR	8%
2. KRO	8%
2. Yabloko	8%
5. LDPR	7%
6. Women of Russia	6%
7. Russia's Choice	6%

The contest in the single member districts will be between NDR and the Communists.

- The Public Opinion Fund reported in Interfax on 12/6 a poll of 8996 Russians on the qualities the Russian public is looking for in a candidate. They were then asked which candidate most exhibits this quality.

1. Takes a responsible attitude toward governing (89%)

1. Lebed 27%
2. Yavlinsky 23%

2. Is honest and decent (68%)

1. Yavlinsky 28%
2. Lebed 27%

3. Is prepared to tell the truth

1. Lebed 32%
2. Zyuganov 28%

B. Other Polls:

- Vox Populi stated in the 11/23 Nezavisimaya Gazeta that 84% of polled Russian political, business, military, and intellectual elite support holding parliamentary and presidential elections on time.

- The Washington Based International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) reported a poll in OMRI supl. 11/24, that found:

- 40% of polled feel there should be several parties as opposed to one or many
- 6% are actual party members
- 41% see no difference between party platforms
- 58% feel parties address issues important to voters
- 25% said they would support a party candidate over an independent.

- The All Russian Public Opinion Center found the following results in a poll of 1601 participants conducted from 11/10-16 reported in Interfax on 11/22.

- 26% of Russians regard Chernomyrdin as an associate of Yeltsin
- 22% claim he is neither close nor far from Yeltsin
- 6% see Chernomyrdin as distancing himself from Yeltsin
- 12% claim they will vote for NDR

- A poll conducted by a local organization in the Briansk region found the follow issues mattered most to the voters. Reported in Choice of the Regions #2, 11/27.

1. Inflation 48%
2. Crime 43%
3. Declining Morals 36%

- An unattributed poll on campaign election viewership was reported by ITAR-TASS on 11/28.

- 13% of Muscovites always watch program on the elections
- 28% often watch programs on the elections
- 41% occasionally watch programs on the elections
- 17% object to such broadcasts

In 1993, 28% watched often, 16% watched occasionally, and 21% objected.

- 16% seek more political broadcasts
- 9% seek fewer political broadcasts
- 38% are satisfied with the current number of broadcasts.

- Vox Populi in the 11/30 Nezavisimaya Gazeta stated the results of polls taken over the past summer and fall that:

- 28% of Russians feel the Communist system is the system most suitable for
Russia. 54% disagree.
- 21% think the country might restore socialism under certain circumstances;
62% think such a return is impossible.
- 29% think Russia can pull out of its crisis if it reverts to an economy based
solely on the state. 43% think it can do so if Russia widens its private sector,
and 16% believe the current balance should be maintained.
- 52% prefer to be hired; 22% prefer to run their own business.
- 42% prefer to work for state companies; 41% prefer to work for other than
state companies, 16% prefer to work for private enterprises.
- 56% feel everyone should earn as much as possible even if that means
differences in income. 35% prefer the state to distribute public goods equally.
- 28% think is it more useful to have a system of views shared by all; 60%
prefer diversity of views.
- 45% think the multi-party system is good for society, 32% disagree.

- The Russia Public Opinion Fund announced results of a poll in Interfax on 12/6 that:

- 37% of Russian voters know who they will vote for and will go to the polls.
- 19% will go to the polls, but are undecided.
- 15% have not decided who they will vote for or if they will go to the polls.

- Vox Populi reported in the 12/7 Interfax, as many as 51% of Russian voters will go to the polls. 21% are not sure if they will attend, and 5% have no interest in politics. Many voters will decide who they will vote for on election day.