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The Russian Election Compendium
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
November 20, 1995, No. 11
To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including a "betting chart." Individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.
I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December 1995
| A. Individuals | Likelihood | Change From Last Month |
| Graham Allison (11/1): Director SDI Project |
85% | |
| Sergei Grigoriev (11/1): SDI Project Fellow Former Spokesman for Gorbachev |
75% | |
| John Lloyd (8/17) Former Moscow Bureau Chief Financial Times |
75% | |
| Matthew Lantz (11/20) SDI Project |
75% | |
| B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections: | ||
CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC) REGISTERS 43 PARTIES INCLUDING YABLOKO AND DERZHAVA. 43 parties will appear on the ballot for December 17 election. 2600 candidates were registered for 225 single member districts. This averages to 12 candidates per seat. A random drawing to decide the order of party appearances on the ballot determined: Women of Russia is first; Derzhava is second; Our Home is Russia (NDR) is 17; Yabloko is 19; Russia's Democratic Choice is 23; the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CP-RF) is 25; the Congress of Russian Communities (KRO) is 31; the Liberal Democratic Party is 33, and the Agrarian Party is 41. (OMRI 11/6, 11/13, 11/16)
TELEVISION CAMPAIGNING BEGINS. Each political party will have one hour of free television time between November 15 and December 15. Time slot assignments for the 43 parties were drawn by lot; the Rybkin bloc drew the first slot and the radical Communists-Workers' Party-for the Soviet Union will appear last. Parties may buy additional air time at up to $20-30,000/minute. Originally Ostankino, the state-run TV, sought to have parties debate one another during their spots, but parties vehemently rejected this proposal seeking to program their own time.
Larger parties are using paid advertising. A number of ads have been declared illegal by the non-binding Judicial Chamber for Informational Disputes. LDPR ads cause frequent complaints. Russian ads are polished and do not cover issues in detail. One KRO commercial has money being placed in an outstretched hand, with an announcer stating,"They warned the bureaucrats not to take bribes." The next scene has a jail cell closing with GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED'S voice saying, "We already warned you." (OMRI 11/7,10,15,16, NYT 11/16)
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C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary Elections:
MOVEMENT TO HALT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION GATHERS STEAM: Throughout Russia, individuals are trying to stop the December 17 parliamentary elections. On November 7 a group of leading businessmen launched a crusade to postpone elections. They fear a Communist victory will set back reforms. They seek the Russian Constitutional Court to declare the election invalid. Industrialist KAKA BENDUKIDZE announced in the event of a Communist landslide, he would flee the country. These industrialists believe the greatest outcry over canceled elections will emerge from the West, not from within Russia. (Financial Times 11/6,11/7)
Meanwhile, a group of Duma members has also asked the Constitutional Court to rule on the constitutionality of the election law. These deputies, led by liberal IRINA KHAKAMADA and VYACHESLAV NIKONOV argue the 5% hurdle should be lowered to allow more parties into the Duma so that more of the population is represented. Fears exist that with 43 registered parties over 50% of the population will vote for parties not clearing the 5% hurdle. The deputies also seek a run-off election system in place so one cannot gain a seat with as little as 10-15% of the vote. (OMRI 11/1, 11/3, Financial Times 11/10)
The Russian Supreme Court asked the Russian Constitutional Court to address the issue. The Constitutional Court will decide whether to hear the case during week of November 20. If heard, a ruling may take time. Many are afraid that any ruling will undermine the results of the elections. Large parties have denounced the appeal to the Court. Yabloko leader GRIGORY YAVLINSKY warned postponing elections could mean for centuries. Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV suggested social unrest would occur if elections were not held. KRO leader SERGEI GLAZYEV said to change the law would undermine the elections. Prime Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN stated the elections to the State Duma must take place on time in accordance with the Constitution. (Financial Times 11/14, OMRI 11/7, 11/10)
On the other side, Federation Council Chairman VLADIMIR SHUMEIKO believes no major unrest will occur if the elections are cancelled. Finally, President YELTSIN said vaguely he does not want the elections postponed, but would like to see improvements made to the electoral law before the elections. (Monitor 11/3, OMRI 11/14, 11/15)
APATHETIC YOUTH VOTING. In 1993 20% of 18-24 year olds in Russia voted; this year the trend looks comparable. Only 4% of Russians under 35 belong to political parties. 75% under 35 say they are not interested in politics or government. This reflects a lack of civic education and the fact BORIS YELTSIN is an uninspiring leader for youth. The Washington based International Foundation for Electoral Systems is working with the CEC to develop a "Rock the Vote" campaign similar to the one run in the United States. (Washington Post 11/12)
II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June
| A. Individual | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison | 50% | -10% |
| Sergei Grigoriev | 50% | -10% |
| John Lloyd | 55% | |
| Matthew Lantz | 45% | +5% |
DATE SET FOR RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. The Federation Council (upper house) voted 123-0 to set the presidential election on June 16, 1996, four days after President YELTSIN'S term expires. A 50% vote (90 votes) was needed. Chairman of the Federation Council, VLADIMIR SHUMEIKO, hurried the vote to end speculation that the elections might not be held at all. (OMRI 11/16)
Although still in the hospital, President BORIS YELTSIN remains in charge of the country. A dispute occurred earlier this month, when Prime Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN stated that he was taking control of the "power ministries" while Yeltsin was incapacitated. Yeltsin's entourage quickly disputed this claim. Yeltsin appeared on TV twice this month, once slurring his words, and later in more control. Most assessments now believe the Russian president is recovering. However, one newspaper pointed out that as of November 1, the president had missed 36 days for illness since the start of the year and had taken 48 days for vacation. (various sources 11-1-11/17, Obschaya Gazeta 11/1)
III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Graham Allison | John Lloyd | ||
| Communist Party (CP-RF) | 20% | CP-RF | 25% |
| Yabloko (Yavlinsky) | 19% | NDR | 7% |
| Our Home (NDR) | 15% | Yabloko | 7% |
| Congress of R. Communities | 12% | KRO | 7% |
| (Lebed-KRO) | |||
| Agrarian Party | 10% | ||
| LDPR (Zhirinovsky) | 6% | ||
| Women of Russia | 5% | ||
| Russia's Choice (Gaidar) | 5% | ||
| Sergei Grigoriev | Matthew Lantz | ||
| Communist Party (CP-RF) | 26% | CP-RF | 28% |
| Agrarian Party | 20% | Yabloko | 15% |
| KRO (Lebed) | 20% | Agrarian | 14% |
| Women of Russia | 12% | KRO | 12% |
| Yabloko (Yavlinsky) | 9% | NDR | 9% |
| NDR (Chernomyrdin) | 8% | LDPR | 7% |
| LDPR (Zhirinovsky) | 5% | Women of R | 6% |
| Industrialists (Volsky) | 5% | RChoice | 3% |
| Others | 6% | ||
| B. New Evidence: |
OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (NDR) (Pro-government/ Chernomyrdin): NDR has hit the campaign trail. It is selling itself as constructive workers, while opponents only offer negative solutions. Posters show CHERNOMYRDIN with his hands forming the roof of a house the party will build for the country. NDR has used Western singers like Kool and the Gang and Hammer at campaign rallies and has pursued populist political policies such as raising social payments, compensating those who lost money in investment scams, and widening exceptions for conscription. CHERNOMYRDIN and Moscow Mayor YURI LUZHKOV appeared together at a rally in Moscow this month claiming the economy was finally improving. (OMRI 11/10, OMRI supl. 11/17, NYT 11/16, Financial Times 11/17)
CHERNOMYRDIN also supported the reinstatement of Yabloko and has criticized attempts to use the Constitutional Court to postpone elections. "If the Supreme Court and some Duma members believe the (election) law is unconstitutional, they should have made their appeal earlier." (OMRI supl. 11/14)
Rumors of cooperations between NDR and the Communists appeared earlier this month. CHERNOMYRDIN and Communist leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV met and discussed their mutual interest in opposing groups who want to discredit the election law. Articles pointed out that unlike YELTSIN, CHERNOMYRDIN has not warned of a Communist take over. Both leaders were on the old Central Committee, and the parties could benefit from cooperation. NDR needs the Communists' popular support, and the CP-RF needs to work with the prime minister in the next Duma. Neither leader has announced any formal cooperation, which leads one to think these rumors might be nothing more than pragmatic politicians discussing the future. (OMRI 11/3, Moskovsky Komosolets 11/11)
NDR gained the support of the 500,000 member Union of Pensioners this month. its leader praised CHERNOMYRDIN for taking a constructive and serious approach to government. (OMRI supl. 11/14)
COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (CP-RF) (Left/Gennady Zyuganov): Early in the month rumors suggested cooperation between the CP-RF and the Congress of Russian Communities (KRO). ZYUGANOV claimed there was a strong basis for cooperation and was in regular contact with KRO leaders. KRO leaders later scuttled the initiative. (INTERFAX 11/1, OMRI 11/2) Communists across the nation celebrated the 78th anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution. 100,000 individuals attended rallies. Speaking at the rally in Moscow, ZYUGANOV said the situation today in Russia was similar to the pre- revolutionary conditions of 1917. This time, however, the Communists would take power through democratic means. (OMRI 11/8, NYT 11/8)
Because of the party's popularity, many observers are discussing just what the CP-RF stands for in today's Russia. ZYUGANOV understands the Bolshevik system was a failure, advocates a multi-party system, endorses freedom of religion and choice, meets with Western businessmen, and encourages foreign investment. He has been called flexible and pragmatic with an excellent understanding of the electorate and Russia. On the other hand, the party's economic policies call for the basic branches of industry - food production, oil and gas, metallurgy and petro-chemicals to be included in the state sector. Controlling inflation is important, but the party believes today's policies suffocate individuals. The CP-RF advocates tariffs to protect firms. Although seeking foreign investment, the party does not declare how foreign investors in industries to be re-nationalized would be compensated. (NYT 11/8, Economist 11/18, Monitor 11/8, Washington Post 11/12)
Finally, ZYUGANOV warned against cancelling elections. He claimed postponing elections would result in painful upheavals. (OMRI 11/17)
CONGRESS OF RUSSIAN COMMUNITIES (KRO) (Moderate Nationalist/Yuri Skokov, Alexander Lebed, Sergei Glazyev): KRO backed away from a potential alliance from the Communists. Spokesman VLADIMIR KLIMOV stated it would be a tactical mistake to ally now that the campaign had started. (OMRI 11/3)
KRO has continued its fiery rhetoric throughout the month. Party leader YURI SKOKOV claimed, "The President's anarchic administration has run out of steam and should be replaced." He also denounced CHERNOMYRDIN saying he should be jailed for not paying salaries. "NDR and CHERNOMYRDIN are the enemy." GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED advocated military force if necessary to protect Russians living abroad. Such rhetoric has played well with the electorate. (Financial Times 11/4, OMRI 11/8, OMRI supl. 11/17)
At their mid-November party conference, KRO initiated a referendum to be placed on the ballot that amended the Constitution to strengthen popular oversight over authorities. SKOKOV called the referendum "more important than the election." (OMRI 11/13, 11/15)
Former Soviet President MIKHAIL GORBACHEV assessed KRO's leaders. He called SKOKOV "secretive, inclined to intrigue, and a technocrat who is suffering from Bonapartism." LEBED, on the other hand, is "a man of morals, who has strong attributes and needs to be smoothed a little." He is not ready to be president. (OMRI supl. 11/10)
Pravda described KRO's recent success as a combination of three elements: Russia's gloomy economic outlook, KRO's patriotic/democratic ideology, and its leadership. KRO has an open democratic structure that allows smaller parties and individual leaders to join it. It is the most Western-like party is Russia and represents an evolution of Russian political parties. It does not support a narrow ideology, rather it is oriented toward defining problems and choosing appropriate solutions. (OMRI 11/14)
YABLOKO (Reformist/Grigory Yavlinsky): On November 4, the Russian Supreme Court avoided an electoral crisis when it overruled the CEC's ban of Yabloko. The CEC registered Yabloko on November 6. YAVLINSKY said of the ruling, "There is still hope for democracy in Russia, but there will be many problems ahead, a threat still exists." His words proved prescient when a movement emerged to change the election laws five weeks before elections. YAVLINSKY argued against postponing the elections claiming, "Any delay would deal a devastating blow to the hopes of building democracy. That in turn would undermine stability in the country and the hopes of lasting economic reform." (OMRI, 11/6, 11/7, NYT 11/5, Financial Times 11/13)
YAVLINSKY claims his party is popular because it is only party that appeals to the middle class that lost out in the reforms. The Communists have a similar appeal. They attract to the blue collar workers, while Yabloko appeals to teachers, scientists, and other skilled workers. (Monitor 11/6)
Earlier in the month, the Democratic Russia Bloc, announced it was instructing its 73 regional organizations to back the Yabloko movement. (Nevavisimaya Gazeta 11/2).
Yabloko will appear as #19 on a ballot of 43 parties, in its first TV appearance YAVLINSKY thanked ORT for the seven and a half minutes of free air time, and then noted that with paid advertisement costing $20-30,000/minute, politicians were being forced to sell out to secure financial backing. (OMRI supl. 11/17)
AGRARIAN PARTY (Left - Mikhail Lapshin): The Agrarian party continues to base its support in the regions, particularly within state farms, where leaders are expected to deliver a heavy vote in favor of the party. In Belgorod, all candidates for governor are soliciting the party for an endorsement which is perceived to assure victory. Likewise, in Stavropol Krai, the ruling authorities have announced plans to back Agrarian candidates. (Segodnya 11/4, OMRI supl. 11/17)
Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN, sensing a strong showing in the elections, says his party will seek more cabinet positions in the new year. Currently, the party has two cabinet ministers, ALEXANDER NAZARCHUK, Agriculture Minister, and ALEXANDER ZAVERYUKHA, Deputy Prime Minister. LAPSHIN claims he would like his party to hold the positions of First Deputy Prime Minister (in charge of the economy), Economics Minister, or Finance Minister. (OMRI supl. 11/10)
LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA (LDPR) (Nationalist/Zhirinovsky): ZHIRINOVSKY began the month explaining that the LDPR did not have electoral alliances because they were the only true opposition party. (The LDPR has no members in the government.) He then went on to accuse YEGOR GAIDAR'S Russia's Democratic Choice of campaigning too early by wrapping groceries in campaign posters. The LDPR is also running ZHIRINOVSKY'S sister in the same district Foreign Minister ANDREI KOZYREV is running. According to ZHIRINOVSKY, KOZYREV is responsible for destroying Russia as a superpower, and must be defeated. (INTERFAX 11/1, OMRI supl. 11/3)
In an interview with former KGB official, Lt. Col. VICTOR VALENTINOV, on LDPR/KGB connections, PRISM reported VALENTINOV claims the LDPR was a government creation used to scare society and the West. As evidence for this theory, he points to the murky finances of the LDPR, that even tax officials cannot track. He asks how the LDPR got this money without redistributing property. He also notes in spite of extremist statements, the LDPR always tows the government line on major issues. Finally, the LDPR enjoys unhindered distribution of literature throughout Russia and has never been put on trial for its antics. VALENTINOV claims now that the CP-RF has risen to prominence as the new bugbear, the LDPR will fade. (Monitor Prism 11/3)
RUSSIA'S DEMOCRATIC CHOICE - UNITED DEMOCRATS (RDC) (Reformist/Yegor Gaidar): YEGOR GAIDAR's party is still in danger of not clearing the 5% hurdle. Lately, Gaidar has sold himself as a reformer with a human face. He now supports protection and state control over some large monopolies. Despite the fact some members of his Duma faction called for hearings on the election law, GAIDAR has come out against canceling elections stating, "To put off elections now would create a much worse situation than anything that could arise from the elections." GAIDAR and his party have also led the warning calls against a Communist victory. Fellow Deputy SERGEI YUSHENKOV addressed an anti-Communist rally held in opposition to the celebrations of the 1917 revolution. (OMRI supl. 11/14, Financial Times 11/14)
WOMEN OF RUSSIA: (Left-Center/YEKATERINA LAKHOVA) Women of Russia continue to do surprisingly well in opinion polls. The bloc is known as moderate, cautious, and practical. This has at times led to criticism of lacking a coherent policy. For example, the bloc voted to end the war in Chechnya but against a bill that cut off funds for the war. Still, the bloc remains popular and stands a good chance of clearing the 5% hurdle. (Izvestia 11/5, Sovetskaya Rossiya 11/11)
DERZHAVA (Nationalist/Alexander Rutskoi): Like Yabloko, former Russian Vice President ALEXANDER RUTSKOI's nationalist bloc was reinstated after the Supreme Court declared the CEC ban illegal. Speaking in his first free air time spot, RUTSKOI declared, "We are inconvenient to the Communists and the Democrats." He promised if Derzhava gets the majority in the parliament, "All the talk and demagoguery in this parliament will end." He then cited all other factions currently in the Duma and asked the audience to find one completed task. (OMRI 11/6, OMRI supl. 11/17)
FORWARD RUSSIA! (Populist-Reformist/Boris Fedorov): Former Finance Minister BORIS FEDOROV urged the government to halt further privatization of the economy. "This must be stopped immediately...I think it is in the interests of the state to stop making a fool of itself and cancel the operation. Mr. CHERNOMYRDIN please stop this shameful thing." He also called for the 5% Duma barrier to be increased to 10% to avoid a more fragmented Duma. (Financial Times 11/7, OMRI supl. 11/10)
RYBKIN BLOC (Moderate-Left-Center/Ivan Rybkin) Duma Speaker IVAN RYBKIN'S bloc held a party congress on November 9. At the meeting the speaker distanced himself from CHERNOMYRDIN'S NDR. He called for tougher state control of the economy and said the state should play a more active role in fixing energy prices. His faction, because of its small size, advocates lowering the 5% barrier for entry into the Duma. (OMRI 11/2, OMRI supl. 11/10)
The Rybkin Bloc drew the first spot on free TV advertising. RYBKIN used his time to stress that his bloc contained 40 Duma members and that they had worked diligently to craft precise legislation over the session. He also predicted a surprise result for the elections that would depend on the votes of the regions. (OMRI supl. 11/17)
PARTY OF WORKERS' SELF GOVERNMENT (Left/ Svatoslav Fedorov) SVATOSLAV FEDOROV, the popular Russian eye doctor, is considered Russia's Ross Perot. He is a self-made, charismatic man. His economic ideas are leftist: he seeks to give ownership of each enterprise to the workers to increase productivity; he advocates prohibiting the export of raw materials, insisting the local producers to sell domestically at artificially low prices. The Government should fix salaries, prices, and pensions. Although his policies are not economically sound, FEDOROV may find a niche among the disgruntled. (Novoe Vremya, OMRI supl. 11/7)
IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?
| A. Individuals | |||||
| Graham Allison | Matthew Lantz | Sergei Grigoriev | |||
| Yavlinsky | 15% | Cherno | 30% | Lebed | 30% |
| Lebed | 15% | Lebed | 20% | Zyuganov | 15% |
| Chernomyrdin | 15% | Yavlinsky | 15% | Yavlinsky | 10% |
| Yeltsin | 15% | Yeltsin | 10% | Chernomyrdin | 10% |
| Zhirinovsky | 5% | Zhirinovsky | 7% | ||
| Zyuganov | 3% | Yeltsin | <5% |
WHO WINS PRESIDENCY DEPENDS ON COOPERATION AND ELECTION STRATEGY: An op-ed claimed that the ability of the super- parties (those in power, Nationalists, Democrats, and Communists) to agree on a single candidate and get that candidate past the first round elections will determine the next president. The article predicts those in power will switch allegiance to CHERNOMYRDIN if Yeltsin remains ill. YAVLINSKY will win the support of most, but not all, of the democrats. ZYUGANOV will have the support of the Communists, and LEBED or ZHIRINOVSKY will win the support of the nationalists depending on how they fare in the parliamentary elections. (Nevavisimaya Gazeta 11/1)
CLINTON BACKS CHERNOMYRDIN? A November 15 op-ed suggested Clinton is now giving up on YELTSIN in favor of the prime minister. The Clinton administration sees CHERNOMYRDIN as the best possible successor to Yeltsin, should Yeltsin not seek a second term. The article cited the supportive remarks Clinton made to the prime minister at the Rabin funeral. Should Chernomyrdin get Clinton's backing, it would significantly improve his presidential chances. (Komsomolskaya Pravda 11/15, OMRI 11/17)
V. Polling Results For Elections
The All Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion released a poll of 1368 respondents on the popularity of potential presidential candidates. Reported in Monitor on 11/2 and INTERFAX on 11/1.
| 1. Alexander Lebed | 31.9% |
| 2. Gennady Zyuganov | 23.1% |
| 3. Grigory Yavlinsky | 22.2% |
| 4. Victor Chernomyrdin | 20.5% |
| 5. Vladimir Zhirinovsky | 10.5% |
The All Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion announced results of a poll conducted on 10/26 assessing the popularity of electoral blocs. Reported in OMRI on 11/17.
| 1. CP-RF | 14% |
| 2. Our Home is Russia (NDR) | 7% |
| 3. Women of Russia | 6% |
The Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center released results of a poll of expert journalists on the most popular party reported in INTERFAX on 11/1.
| 1. CP-RF | |
| 2. KRO | |
| 3. NDR |
Sociologist Boris Grushin conducted a poll of 505 enterprise directors to determine which electoral bloc had the most support. Reported in OMRI on 11/17.
| Among parties with firm support: | ||
| 1.NDR | 17% | |
| 2.CP-RF | 15% | |
| 3. Yabloko | 5% | |
| 4.Forward Russia | 5% | |
| Grushin noted that 3 of the 4 blocs support electoral reform. | ||
The All Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion reported all major parties promise social-justice in their platforms. Justice is third to legality and human rights. How the parties promise justice differs. Reported in OMRI on 11/7
Russia's Democratic Choice claims the state must guarantee minimum standards. LDPR promises "anything to anyone." CP-RF and Agparty promise to resurrect the old-style social guarantees. NDR promises a strong state to protect citizens.
None say how they will pay for these social justices.
The All Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion discovered that 26% of Muscovites are certain they will not vote, while 18% of the rest of Russia feels this way.
The All Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion investigated who will vote according to age differences. Reported in OMRI on 11/10.
| Voters aged 67-89 | 71% will vote |
| aged 32-42 | 50% will vote |
| aged 25-31 | 40% will vote |
| aged 18-24 | 39% will vote |
LIS, a local polling agency in Yekaterinburg reports on local party preferences in OMRI on 11/10.
| 1. NDR | 14% |
| 2. Yabloko | 11% |
| 3. CP-RF | 11% |
Sevodnya asked 2400 individuals were asked to answer the following question: "How do you assess the election chances of ____________party/bloc?" (11/3)
| PARTIES | Will get majority in Duma | Will have strong position in Duma | Will barely get into Duma | No chance of getting in Duma | Don't know |
| NDR | 15% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 46% |
| CP-RF | 12% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 46% |
| KRO | 7% | 20% | 14% | 5% | 54% |
| Yabloko | 6% | 23% | 15% | 4% | 52% |
| Agrarians | 6% | 19% | 13% | 5% | 57% |
| LDPR | 6% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 46% |
| Russia's Choice | 5% | 18% | 18% | 10% | 49% |
| S. Fedorov | 5% | 17% | 16% | 5% | 57% |
| Women of Russia | 3% | 14% | 19% | 8% | 56% |
| Derzhava | 2% | 11% | 20% | 13% | 54% |
| Forward Russia! | 2% | 12% | 17% | 7% | 62% |
| Power to the People | 2% | 7% | 16% | 17% | 59% |
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