The Russian Election Compendium

RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
November 1, 1995, No. 10

Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government

To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including a "betting chart." Individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.

I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December 1995

A. Individuals	Likelihood	Change From Last Month
Graham Allison (11/1): Director SDI Project	85%
Sergei Grigoriev (11/1): SDI Project Fellow Former Spokesman for Gorbachev	75%
John Lloyd (8/17) Former Moscow Bureau Chief Financial Times	75%
Matthew Lantz (11/1) SDI Project	75%	-10%
B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections:

PARTY SIGNATURE GATHERING COMES TO A CLOSE. 43 parties submitted signature lists to the Central Election Commission (CEC) by the October 22nd deadline. In order to campaign, each party had to submit 200,000 signatures, with no more than 7% from any one district. The CEC will now review the lists and announce on November 2nd which parties meet the requirements to campaign for the December 17th election. Many parties hired consultants to collect signatures. Costs for such services ranged from 23¢ to a few dollars per signature. CEC Chair NIKOLAI RYABOV claimed the process had been marred by gross violations including intimidation and bribery. In some cases parties helped like-minded parties gather signatures in the regions to thwart their opponent's efforts. (OMRI 10/23,10/18,10/6, FT 10/21-2, Kommersant Daily 10/10)

CEC APPROVES ELECTION LISTS FOR 19 BLOCS. Our Home is Russia, Women of Russia, Congress of Russian Communities, the Communist Party of Russian Federation, the Agrarian Party of Russian, the Rybkin bloc, the Free Trade Unions and Industrialists, and Russia's Democratic Choice all had their party lists approved by the CEC and may now begin officially campaigning. (OMRI 10/23, 10/31)

RUSSIAN PUBLIC TV (ORT) ANNOUNCES COSTS OF ELECTION COMMERCIALS. One minute between 19:00 and 22:00 will cost $20,500. On weekends, one minute will cost $24,500. In the morning or late evening, one minute will cost between $1500 and $7000. Radio is expected to cost between $240 and $1500 per minute. Each approved party will also be guaranteed thirty minutes of free air time between November 15th and December 15th. (Kommersant Daily 10/10)

CAMPAIGNING SEES MOVEMENT AWAY FROM PROFESSIONAL POLITICAL CONSULTANTS. Political consultants are not being used as often in these elections. As parties have gained more experience and prices for consulting services have gone up, the parties have stayed in house to create their own campaign strategies. In this election many of the parties want to stress face-to-face contact over image making. Consultants claim after bad results, the parties will return. (Moscow Times 9/24)

C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary Elections:

CEC BANS YABLOKO AND DERZHAVA FROM PARTICIPATING IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. On Sunday, October 27th the CEC announced the Yabloko and Derzhava blocs would not be allowed to participate in the election because of changes to their electoral lists. Both parties have appealed to the Supreme Court for a ruling. Russia's Democratic Choice announced if Yabloko was not allowed to participate, it would not either, effectively removing all democratic parties from the election. This would invalidate the elections in the eyes of many Russians and in the international arena. Yabloko's main competitors, the Communists, Our Home is Russia, and the Congress of Russian Communities all condemned the CEC action, claiming an election without Yabloko would not be a true election. The CEC voted against Yabloko 10-3 with 3 abstentions. (See individual parties below for more details.) (various sources including NYT, FT, BG, and OMRI, 10/27-31)

COST LIMITS OF ELECTION TOO LOW? A Kommersant Daily editorial claimed that it is unrealistic to expect parties to stay within cost limits established by the CEC. Currently, parties can only spend $2 million on their campaigns. But with each district expected to cost between $150,000 and $200,000 and TV advertisement space costing over $20,000 per minute, the campaign spending ceiling is unrealistically low and will force illegal activity. The most likely abuses of the law will come from buying votes and bribing TV officials. The CEC claims it does not have the time to monitor all parties' spending and assumes the parties will monitor each other. (Kommersant Daily 10/13, Moscow Times 9/24)

PLETHORA OF PARTIES COULD BE CONFUSING TO VOTERS. 43 parties submitted signatures to the CEC. In the Moscow Oblast, which does not include city of Moscow, 230 candidates are running for 11 district seats. Many fear voters will have too many choices. The popular Communist Party of the Russian Federation is particularly worried because more than one Communist party may appear on the list. The proliferation of parties stems from the fact that parties are disqualified if an election partner leaves their bloc after the CEC has approved the candidate list. Therefore, parties have tried to campaign on their own. (Nevavisimaya Gazeta 10/24, OMRI 10/23)

WILL THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION HAVE A VOICE IN THE NEW DUMA? Fears are arising that the large number of parties will only allow four or five parties to clear the 5% hurdle to get into the Duma. This could leave as much as 50-70% of the population voting for parties that are not represented in the Duma. In the 1993 election, only 9% cast votes for parties not clearing the 5% hurdle. (OMRI 10/27,10/23)

CEC OFFICIALS ANNOUNCE CRIMINAL LIST TO GREAT CONTROVERSY: The CEC announced a list of 87 individuals campaigning for Duma seats that had a criminal record. The list caused great controversy when it was discovered it included political dissidents from the Soviet era and did not include some candidates currently being investigated. Currently, parliamentarians become immune from the law once elected, making the Duma seats coveted by criminals. The CEC later admitted the list had errors in it. The party with the largest number of the list was the Liberal Democratic Party with 12, followed by Derzhava with 6. (Boston Globe, FT 10/26, OMRI 10/24, 10/4)

II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June

A. Individual	Likelihood	Change From Last Week
Graham Allison	50%	-10%
Sergei Grigoriev	50%	-10%
John Lloyd	55%
Matthew Lantz	40%	-5%

YELTSIN AGAIN HOSPITALIZED FOR HEART AILMENT. For the second time in three months, Boris Yeltsin has been hospitalized for a heart condition. The condition seems more serious than previously. No aides have been allowed to see the president. Only family members and his bodyguard ALEXANDER KORZHAKOV have gained admittance. Spokesmen claim Yeltsin's condition will require that he rests for the next month. Should Yeltsin die or become incapacitated, Prime Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN will become acting president and must declare presidential elections within three months. However, no independent body has the authority to declare Yeltsin incapacitated. Many fear the effects Yeltsin's condition will have on both the presidential and parliamentary elections. (various news sources, 10/28-10/31)

MICHAEL McFAUL ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. Stanford University professor Michael McFaul believes many senior figures are "definitely thinking of postponing the presidential elections indefinitely and establishing an authoritarian regime...Right now we're at an incredible precedent setting moment. Russia has never in its history had two consecutive elections for leaders on a federal level. If a second presidential election doesn't happen the chance to set that democratic precedent will be lost, the new leader will be under no obligation to play by the democratic rules, and what you will have is an authoritarian regime." (FT 10/31)

III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?

A. Individuals
Graham Allison		John Lloyd
Communist Party (CP-RF)	20%	CP-RF	25%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky)	19%	NDR	7%
Our Home (NDR)	15%	Yabloko	7%
Congress of R. Communities	12%	KRO	7%
(Lebed-KRO)
Agrarian Party	10%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky)	6%
Women of Russia	5%
Russia's Choice (Gaidar)	5%
Sergei Grigoriev		Matthew Lantz
Communist Party (CP-RF)	26%	CP-RF	28%
Agrarian Party	20%	Agrarian	14%
KRO (Lebed)	20%	Yabloko	14%
Women of Russia	12%	KRO	12%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky)	9%	NDR	10%
NDR (Chernomyrdin)	8%	LDPR	7%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky)	5%	Women of R	6%
Industrialists (Volsky)	5%	RChoice	3%
		Others	6%
B. New Evidence:

OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (NDR) (Chernomyrdin): It has been a difficult month for the "Party of Power." Prime Minister CHERNOMYRDIN assessed his party's activities on October 30th claiming NDR had seriously over estimated its preparedness for the upcoming elections. Forty of the bloc's 261 candidates had withdrawn; only 60% of the bloc's single district candidates were still loyal to NDR. The bloc has dedicated leaders only in 45 of Russia's 89 regions. Chernomyrdin stated the bloc had expected too much from power positions and recruiting stars and had neglected organization. In response to this, SERGEI BELAYEV, the campaign manager, will be instructed to run the campaign focused on getting out government pensions and compensating those defrauded by banks. (INTERFAX 10/30)

BELAYEV claims the party will avoid a populist image, despite its setbacks and expects to win 8-12% of the vote. The advertising strategy for the bloc will stress no politically motivated sharp changes of course. The bloc's symbol is a house with a Russian flag for its roof, and the slogan is "If your home is precious to you." (OMRI 10/2, 10/27)

Adhering to the strategy of professionalism in government, CHERNOMYRDIN asked for a non-aggression pact with the Duma in order to get legislation through the parliament. NDR leaders also met with YELTSIN to demonstrate there was no rift between them. Yeltsin will not endorse any party, but challenged NDR to work for a democratic majority in the Duma. (OMRI, 10/12, 10/16)

COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (CP-RF)(Gennady Zyuganov): The CP-RF continues to lead in the polls and expectations for the upcoming parliamentary election. The party was the first to submit its signature list, one of the first to have the list approved, and the first to qualify for CEC government funding for its campaign. The CP-RF campaign is still being waged on the ground at a person-to-person level. (OMRI 10/10)

Because of the party's popularity, other factions have begun to attack the Communists. Most notably, President YELTSIN claimed to have dealings with all parties expect the Communists and Agrarians, who posed the largest threat to society. The CP-RF threatened to sue the President for breaking the law that says government figures cannot campaign for or against a political party. CEC head NIKOLAI RYABOV defended the president saying the law did not apply to him. Also attacking the Communists was Russia's Democratic Choice leader YEGOR GAIDAR stating, "It takes complete ignorance to confuse our Communists with the ex-Communist parties of Eastern Europe. The greatest impact of a Communist take over will be felt in Russia's foreign policy." (OMRI 10/23, 10/24, FT 10/21-22)

ZYUGANOV attempted to alleviate Western concerns by speaking before the American Chamber of Commerce in Moscow. He promised no repeat of the CPSU and claimed his party had no monopoly on truth, power, or property. The state should control the energy, transportation, communications, and military sectors. He also called for lower tariffs and taxes. The FT assessing his statements described the speech as at odds with the party platform. (FT 10/19, OMRI 10/27)

ZYUGANOV also said that his faction would not seek to impeach Yeltsin while he is incapacitated and claimed the CEC ban on Yabloko was a show. "The whole thing will give Yabloko priceless publicity." (BG 10/29, NYT 10/31)

CONGRESS OF RUSSIAN COMMUNITIES (KRO)(Yuri Skokov, Alexander Lebed, Sergei Glazyev): KRO continues its center-left opposition stances. Its program values economic power and state paternalism. It seeks moderate nationalism in a strong state. For the armed forces, KRO hopes to keep the military out of political struggles, keep the structure of the army and develop the high-tech core of the military-industrial base. The party continually attacks government policies.

KRO, although untested in elections, appears to be doing well, especially in the military. Its strength lies in its leaders YURI SKOKOV and especially GEN. ALEXANDER LEBED. Supporters of KRO will likely be the young and unhappy who do not want to join the LDPR. Its financial support is likely to come from Skokov's contacts with Unikombank, AMBI-bank, Tveruniversal bank and industries like Norilsk Nickel and other high-tech military-industrial industries. It has regional leadership support in Mordovia, the Mari-El Republic, Tartarstan, Bashkiriya, Karelia, Udmurtiya, and Chuvashia. (Nevavisimaya Gazeta 10/10, PRISM 10/6)

SKOKOV denied rumors earlier this month that he was being considered as a replacement for Prime Minister CHERNOMYRDIN. Although he has a good relationship with Yeltsin, he disagrees with the government policies. KRO will not be made into a "tame opposition". Some see this debate as an executive branch attempt to drive a wedge between Skokov, who deals with Yeltsin, and Lebed who does not. (Moskovsky Novosti 10/3, Kommersant Daily 10/10)

Polls show the LEBED is expected to win handily his race for the Tuva district seat. Results suggest that he will receive greater than half of the votes. (OMRI 10/27)

YABLOKO (Grigory Yavlinsky): On October 27th, the Central Election Commission announced it was prohibiting GRIGORY YAVLINSKY's Yabloko bloc from participating in the December elections. Yabloko was cited for changing its election list after it had been submitted to the CEC. Specifically, six candidates had withdrawn from the list without notifying the CEC. Yavlinsky had faxes of the six candidates and claimed the CEC would not accept faxes, and the documents had been sent to the CEC in time. Other parties such as NDR and the Rybkin bloc had also changed their lists after being approved by the CEC with no consequence. The net result is the million individuals who signed for Yabloko will be without a party on election day. Furthermore, a viable democratic party will not appear on the ballot if the ban stands.

The CEC action has provoked both a domestic and an international outcry. In Russia, Prime Minister CHERNOMYRDIN stated "The decision at the least was ill-considered and harmful," while ALEXANDER LEBED claimed, "If this is the way our system treats legitimate political parties, then who can treat our country seriously?" YEGOR GAIDAR, head of the pro- reform Russia's Democratic Choice threatened to boycott the elections if Yavlinsky's bloc was not reinstated. President YELTSIN, in his first decree since being hospitalized, demanded the CEC explain itself. The American White House and the European Union also expressed concern over the decree. Others in Russia have not been so offended. Communist party leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV, while upset over the action, stated eventually Yabloko will be allowed to run and will benefit from the publicity. Others were not so charitable; YURI SKOKOV, KRO leader, MIKHAIL LAPSHIN, head of the Agrarian Party, and LDPR leader VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY all claimed the law must be obeyed.

Should the CEC not reverse its decision, it is unlikely the elections will be considered valid. With both Yavlinsky and Gaidar not participating, voters will have no democratic alternatives. This would leave out a significant portion of the populace. Without democratic parties, it is unlikely the West would view the elections as valid. Currently, hopes are running high that the Supreme Court will force the CEC to reverse its decision and avert the crisis. (various news sources 10/27-10/31)

AGRARIAN PARTY (Mikhail Lapshin): In an interview with Nevavisimaya Gazeta Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN assessed the current political scene. He claimed the idea of two centrist blocs is absurd. It was a concept invented by the powers that be to plow up (nice agriculture term) the election field. He described Duma Speaker and Agrarian Party member IVAN RYBKIN as someone who got into power and was "enticed to swim to the other shore." He is effectively separated from the party. The Agrarian Party, according to Lapshin, acknowledged people can own their own Dacha or private plots. They can also sell and inherit these plots, but the party is against free selling and buying of agricultural and urban land, especially to foreigners. The party also is against a referendum on private ownership for fear that the government will sabotage the results. (Nevavisimaya Gazeta 10/18)

LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA (LDPR) (Zhirinovsky): LDPR is not expected to do nearly as well as in 1993 when it won the largest percentage of the proportional vote. LDPR has encountered administrative difficulties in October. It was forced to drop 11 of 12 candidates on its party lists when their names appeared on the CEC criminal list. Also, two of their regional candidates were rejected by the CEC for signature fraud. LDPR is not expected to do well in the regions. (OMRI 10/20, 10/31)

Perhaps to ally fears of a poor showing, LDPR press spokesman VIKTOR FILATOV, stated a common language would be found between the LDPR and the CP-RF in the districts. According to Filatov, both parties have the common objectives of toppling the current government, imposing tight order, and preventing a capitalist Russia. (Moscow Kuranty 10/24)

ZHIRINOVSKY visited Saddam Hussein in Iraq and claimed he admired the Iraqi leader and his policies. He also accused the Western intelligence sources of causing the president's health woes. (OMRI 10/13,FT 10/28-9)

RUSSIA'S DEMOCRATIC CHOICE (RDC)(Yegor Gaidar): YEGOR GAIDAR's party agenda includes radically changing the economic policy of the government. Entitlements will be abolished and tighter control will exist on natural monopolies. State support will go to the conversion of the military-industrial complex, not oil and natural gas sectors. Finally, parliamentary immunity from prosecution should be abolished to avoid a Duma of criminals. (Kommersant Daily 10/5)

In the campaign, RDC will rely on their own campaign strategists as opposed to hired political consultants. Campaign Director VLADIMIR BOXER says the campaign will move away from slick ads and TV. (Moscow Times 9/24)

GAIDAR claimed the party had no trouble collecting signatures, even in the Communist stronghold regions. Throughout the month Gaidar attacked the Communists calling them "a nationalist socialist imperial party" that would destroy the foundations of reform in Russia and compared them to the Eastern European Communist parties that went "...from red to pink, while ours have gone from red to brown." (FT 10/13, OMRI 10/27)

GAIDAR also said his party would not participate in the elections if Yabloko were not allowed to participate (see Yabloko section).

POWER TO THE PEOPLE (Nikolai Ryzkov): The Communist sympathetic Power to the People movement had assistance from the regional Communist party in collecting signatures. RYZKOV also claimed Yeltsin's statements against the Communists "practically unleased total war against the Communist and national blocs and practically divided the society in two. (OMRI 10/25)

DERZHAVA (Alexander Rutskoi): Like Yabloko, former Russian Vice President ALEXANDER RUTSKOI's nationalist bloc was also banned by the CEC for a similar election list violation. Derzhava's changes numbered around 80. Rutskoi claimed he too would appeal to the Supreme Court and stated Our Home is Russia had changed 40 on their list and the Rybkin Bloc had changed a similar number to Derzhava. The banning of Derzhava has not provoked such an outcry because it was unlikely to clear the 5% hurdle. (various sources 10/27-31).

FORWARD RUSSIA! (Boris Fedorov): Former Finance Minister BORIS FEDOROV urged the government not to take any more international financing loans. The government, according to Fedorov, is driving Russia to international bankruptcy. The party is running a populist campaign with slogans like "Land to Farmers, Jails to Gangsters." He also challenged VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY to a boxing match. Finally, Fedorov claims the democratic forces will be coordinating efforts in 90% of the districts. (OMRI 10/18,10/31 Moscow News 9/22)

DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA (DPR): The St. Petersburg DPR broke with party leader SERGEI GLAZYEV because of his insistence the party join KRO. Instead the party will back the DPR Duma leader STANISLAV GOVORUKHIN. Glazyev said KRO would be victorious and Govorukhin would not. KRO needs the five year old DPR regional structure for a presence beyond Moscow. (OMRI 10/11)

IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?

A. Individuals
Graham Allison		Matthew Lantz		Sergei Grigoriev
Yavlinsky	15%	Cherno	30%	Lebed	30%
Lebed	15%	Lebed	20%	Zyganov	15%
Chernomyrdin	15%	Yavlinsky	15%	Yavlinsky	10%
Yeltsin	15%	Yeltsin	10%	Chernomyrdin	10%
		Zhirinovsky	5%	Zhirinovsky	7%
		Zyuganov	3%	Yeltsin	<5%

CHERNOMYRDIN CLAIMS HE WILL NOT SEEK PRESIDENCY. The Prime Minister claimed Yeltsin is likely to run and went on to say, "I have not planned and am not planning to present my own candidacy for the elections for president." Later in the month, the PM went on to endorse the president stating, "I would like to see Boris Yeltsin continue working in the presidential office for the good of Russia." He also denied that relations between himself and the president had deteriorated. (OMRI, 10/5, NYT, FT 10/5, INTERFAX 10/12)

YELTSIN HOSPITALIZED FOR SECOND HEART ATTACK. Many now fear that the President will now not be able to seek reelection. Sergei Markov, of the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow, claims voters will not vote for such a sick individual; they might ignore a health ailment once, but not twice. In the Duma, Communist Party leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV has pledged not to continue with an impeachment motion while Yeltsin is ill. (FT 10/27, NYT 10/29, BG 10/29)

V. Polling Results For Elections

Moskovsky Novosti assessed on October 17th the strengths of the various political parties. The parties were divided into four groups. Group 1 parties were likely to clear the 5% hurdle. Group 2 parties will get around 5-6% of the vote and if well organized will get into the Duma. Group 3 parties will get 4-5% of the vote and have a small chance of getting into the Duma. A Group 4 (not reported here) consists of parties that will not clear the 5% hurdle.

Group 1

	Presence in Duma	Chances of Success	Popularity of Leader	Party Branches	Party Activists	Finances
Agrarian Party Lapshin	yes	high	low	high	high	medium
Communists Zyuganov	yes	high	low	high	high	high
LDPR Zhirinovsky	yes	high	high	high	high	medium
Our Home is Russia Cherno.	no	high	high	high	low	high
Yabloko Yavlinsky	yes	high	high	medium	medium	medium

Group 2

	Presence in Duma	Chance of Success	Popularity of Leader	Party Branches	Party Activists	Finances
KRO Skokov, Lebed	no	high	high	low	low	medium
Workers Self-Gov Party S.Fedorov	no	low	high	low	low	medium
Russia's Dem. Choice Gaidar	yes	medium	medium	medium	high	medium
Women of Russia Fedulova	yes	medium	low	high	medium	medium

Group 3

	Presence in Duma	Chance of Success	Popularity of Leader	Party Branches	Party Activists	Finances
Derzhava Rutskoi	no	medium	high	low	low	medium
Rybkin Bloc	no	low	high	low	low	medium
Forward Russia! BFedorov	no	low	high	low	medium	medium
Transition of Russia Rossel	no	low	medium	low	medium	low

 Kommersant Daily reported a poll of 1472 people by the All Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion on October 27th on trustworthy leaders.










1. Alexander Lebed
13% (esp. in central Russia and N. Caucasus)


2. Grigory Yavlinsky
12% (esp. in Moscow, St. Pete, Volga Region)


3. Svatoslav Fedorov
10% (esp. in northwest Russia and Volga Region)


Don't Trust Anyone
23%







 Moscow Kuranty reported on October 18th the percentage of parliamentary deputies in each faction that voted for the draft law on honest elections.









CP-RF
89.4%


Yabloko
85.2%


Russia's Choice
83.7%


Forward Russia!
54.5%


Agrarians
54.0%


PRES
46.2%


Stability bloc
35.9%


DPR
27.3%


LDPR
 3.6%


Women of Russia
 0.0%





 Interfax and OMRI reported a poll on October 17th by the Russian Public Opinion Foundation asking if elections were held next Sunday, who would you vote for?









1. CP-RF
13.4%


2. Yabloko
 6.7%


3. KRO
 5.4%


4. NDR
 3.0%





 Interfax reported on October 11th, results of a poll on presidential candidates conducted by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.









1. Lebed 
14%


2. Yavlinsky
12%


3. Chernomyrdin
10%


4. Yeltsin
 7%


5. Zyuganov
 6%


6. Zhirinovsky
 5%





 OMRI reported a poll on October 10th by Vox Populi asking which party would you vote for in the December election.









1. CP-RF
14%


2. NDR
10%


3. Yabloko
 8%


4. Women of Russia
 7%





Poll found low level of support for Russia's Democratic Choice, LDPR, and the Agrarians.
 Nevavisimaya Gazeta reported a poll on October 10th of the Moscow Oblast conducted by the Institute of Social and Political Technologies. The poll found 47% of those polled will vote, 11% will not, 42% have not decided. The most important issues were higher living standards (59%) and security (31%) Of the parties:









1. Women of Russia
21%


2. Yabloko
18%


3. CP-RF
18%


4. NDR
17%


5. LDPR
 5%


6. Rybkin Bloc
 4%





 Nevavisimaya Gazeta reported on October 5th a Defense Ministry memo assessing the chances of the different political faction in the upcoming elections.










CP-RF 
18-20% of list vote, max. number of seats including districts = 60-70.


NDR
14-15% of list vote, plus up to 20% of the districts (40-50 seats), has advantage of regional leadership support and material and media advantages.


Yabloko 
12-14% of list vote, if lucky get 15% of district seats, esp. in cities.


KRO
10-12% of list vote, cannot predict regional vote.


LDPR
8-10% of list vote (significant fall from last election), will fare poorly in the regions.


Agparty
6-7% of list vote, will do well in districts, possible 15-20%.


Russia's Choice






Derzhava
Both get 5-6%, just at 5% threshold.


Women of R.
4-5%, Will win few district mandates.





 Kuranty reported on October 3rd an assessment of the most influential individuals in Russia in the upcoming months as complied by the Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center and Vox Populi. The survey is conducted by polling 50 experts.









Overall list:
1. Chernomyrdin




2. Yeltsin




3. Luzhkov (Mayor of Moscow)




4. Korzhakov (Yeltsin's bodyguard)




5. Ivan Rybkin (Duma Speaker)





Most influential politicians over the next two months are expected to be:










NOVEMBER
DECEMBER
Regional Leaders










1. Chernomyrdin
1. Chernomyrdin
1. Luzhkov


2. Yeltsin
2. Yeltsin
2. Dudyaev (Chechen leader)


3. Rybkin
3. Zyuganov
3. Rossel (Sverdlosk governor)


4. Zyuganov (CP-RF)
4. Yavlinsky
4. Nemtsov (N. Novgorod governor)


5. Yavlinsky (Yabloko)
5. Rybkin
5. Shaimiev (Pres. Tartarstan)


6. Lebed (KRO)
6. Lebed




7. Volsky (Industrialists)
7. Volsky




8. Zhirinovsky (LDPR)
8. Zhirinovsky




9. Lapshin (Agparty)
9. Lapshin






10. Skokov (KRO)







 The New York Times reported on October 1 the results of a poll conducted by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems asking 3560 individuals what the largest problems of Russian society were. The top five responses included:









1. economic crisis 
24%


2. quality of life
15%


3. peace
 9%


4. political leadership
 8%


5. ethnic conflicts
 7%





Or earlier in the case Yeltsin is incapacitated. Measuring the number of seats in the resulting Duma incorporating both proportional and district voting.