The Russian Election Compendium

RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
October 1, 1995, No. 9

Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government

To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including a "betting chart." Individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.

I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December 1995

A. Individuals	Likelihood	Change From Last Week
Graham Allison (10/2): Director SDI Project	85%
Sergei Grigoriev (10/2): SDI Project Fellow Former Spokesman for Gorbachev	75%
John Lloyd (8/17) Former Moscow Bureau Chief Financial Times	75%
Matthew Lantz (10/2) SDI Project	85%
B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections:

CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC) HEAD NIKOLAI RYABOV ON MEDIA IN ELECTIONS: New regulations will guarantee equal access for parties and candidates to state owned mass media. This comment was seconded by ALEXANDER IVANCHENKO, the deputy head of the CEC, who said the CEC will require state- owned media to give 30 minutes of free air time to all registered political parties and electoral blocs between 11/15 and 12/15. This was later broadened to 30 minutes of free air time between 7:00 and 10:00 am and another 30 minutes between 6:00 and 11:00 pm. TV stations cannot edit or interrupt programs compiled by the parties. Parties can also buy additional air time. They will also be guaranteed space for campaigning in state-run national and regional newspapers. (OMRI, 9/1, 9/14, 9/21)

CEC OUTLINES ELECTION OBSERVER RIGHTS: The announced document is not a law. It defines six types of observers: campaign activists, electoral commission members, authorized representatives of electoral associations or blocs, observers - both foreign and domestic, and media. Domestic observers have the right to be present on elections day, to inspect ballot boxes before they are sealed, to have access to voting protocols, and to file complaints. Foreign observers can attend the counting of the votes, the drawing up of the protocols and results of the vote, and can send complaints and suggestions to the CEC. No punitive measures were described for non-compliance. (Kommersant Daily 9/5)

VYBORY (ELECTIONS) COMPUTER VOTE COUNTING SYSTEM WILL NOT BE USED OFFICIALLY IN DECEMBER ELECTIONS. CEC head RYABOV says the system will be implemented slowly through 2000. Some components will be tested in 1995. The system was not ready and telecommunications were not adequate. The Duma held hearings in May on the system. Some accused that the system could be manipulated by those in power. (OMRI, 9/7, Moskovsky Komsomolets 9/12)

C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary Elections:

YELTSIN STILL HAS YET TO DETERMINE ELECTION PROCEDURE FOR UPPER HOUSE: He still wants the Federation Council to consist of regional governors and heads of regional legislatures. The Constitutional Court has not been clear on the matter. Yeltsin has threatened to have his way by decree. Dispute should not affect Duma elections.

CEC OFFICIALS CONCERNED ABOUT LARGE NUMBER OF PARTIES: RYABOV criticized the Justice Ministry for registering too many parties, including the Rock Climber Party and the Bee Keeper Party. Thus far, 50 parties and 15,000 candidates are competing for 450 seats. This is an average of 28 candidates competing for each of the 225 party list seats and 14 for each of the district seats. Many of these parties will not be able to get the required 200,000 signatures hurdle. The Communist Party (CP-RF) was the first to submit its signature list on Sept. 20. (OMRI, 9/22)

II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June

A. Individual	Likelihood	Change From Last Week
Graham Allison	60%	+5%
Sergei Grigoriev	50%	-10%
John Lloyd	55%
Matthew Lantz	45%	-5%

FEARED FIRST STEPS FOR PREPARING TO POSTPONE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IF DUMA ELECTIONS TURN BAD: On Sept. 18, BORIS YELTSIN decreed all regional elections would be held in December 1996 after the June 1996 presidential elections. Some feel this is a trial balloon for postponing presidential elections. If no outcry emerges over delaying local elections, perhaps minimal outcry will emerge when presidential elections are postponed. One writer sees three possibilities: 1. Yeltsin appoints a strong successor (CHERNOMYRDIN); 2. Yeltsin himself runs; or 3. Yeltsin delays the elections in the name of societal order. Some feel Yeltsin fears repercussion against himself if an opposition candidate succeeds him as president. Both Chernomyrdin and YURI SKOKOV have stated they would allow Yeltsin to retire peacefully if elected. (Moskovskaya Novosti 8/22, Obshchaya Gazeta 9/27).

III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?

A. Individuals
Graham Allison		John Lloyd
Communist Party (CP-RF)	20%	CP-RF	25%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky)	19%	NDR	7%
Our Home (NDR)	18%	Yabloko	7%
Congress of R. Communities	12%	KRO	7%
(Lebed-KRO)
Agrarian Party	10%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky)	6%
Women of Russia	5%
Russia's Choice (Gaidar)	5%
Sergei Grigoriev		Matthew Lantz
Communist Party (CP-RF)	30%	CP-RF	28%
Agrarian Party	20%	Agrarian	15%
KRO (Lebed)	15%	KRO	12%
NDR (Chernomyrdin)	10%	NDR	11%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky)	7%	Yabloko	9%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky)	6%	LDPR	8%
Women of Russia	5%	Women of R	6%
		RChoice	3%
		Others	8%
B. New Evidence:

OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (NDR): The "party of power" held its second national congress in late August. It was described as calm and business like with a program that promises peace of mind in politics to economics and a future without crises. CHERNOMYRDIN, speaking at the congress said, "We are against those who would like to turn Dec. 17 into another Communist Revolution...(we) must consolidate politically and economically the course we have traveled in the last two years." The party list includes 1. CHERNOMYRDIN 2. VICTOR MIKHAILOV (Director Burnt by the Sun) 3. General LEV ROKHLIN (hero of Chechnya). The party is well staffed and funded. Obshchaya Gazetta ran an organizational piece stating NDR had 69 employees on the executive staff with 24 subunits which included: a press center, advertising, research, and fundraising departments, and a regional working group. Olbi concern gave NDR $2.5 billion roubles to run its offices. Chernomyrdin says the government will serve its term through the June presidential elections regardless of Duma election outcome. (OMRI, 9/1, 9/2, 9/21, Financial Times 9/4, Moscow Times 8/20, Obshchaya Gazeta, 8/30)

COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (CP-RF): The CP-RF announced at its party congress it would field the maximum 270 list candidates and will run candidates in 160 of 225 districts. The party list includes 1. GENNADY ZYUGANOV (party leader) 2. SVETLANA GORYACHEVA (former Soviet deputy) 3. AMAN TULEYEV (former candidate for President). CP-RF goals are to gain a majority and form a government of national trust to lead the country out of crisis. Zyuganov claims this is the last chance to end the crisis peacefully. The CP-RF will campaign using its vast regional network by going door-to-door. The party is cooperating with the Agrarian party in the regions and has held discussions with RYZKOV's Power to the People Movement and with SKOKOV and LEBED's Congress of Russian Communities (KRO). The CP-RF would like to be the core of a united opposition. Zyuganov believes if elections were free and fair, a left opposition would get more than 50% of the seats. The party is also again calling for impeachment procedures against YELTSIN for his Bosnia policy. In local elections in Volgograd in early October, the party won 20 of 24 seats. (OMRI 9/7,/9/12,9/14,9/20, Kommersant Daily 9/19, Financial Times 8/28, Boston Globe 8/27, Moscow Times 9/3, Boston Globe 10/3)

CONGRESS OF RUSSIAN COMMUNITIES (KRO): KRO attempts to be a party of actions, not words. It has recently attacked Our Home is Russia for its role in the current state of Russian affairs. Specifically, it attacks perceived NDR wide-spread corruption. It claims the party of power has handed away Russia's wealth and has permitted Russia to be humiliated. The KRO congress was closed to the press, which led to speculation that there was dissention between leader YURI SKOKOV and number two GEN. ALEXANDER LEBED. Lebed denied these charges saying, "We have an even, partnership relationship and I am not going to comment on something that does not exist." He also refuses to speak of presidential elections before the parliamentary elections. Press Spokesman ALEXANDER DENISOV confirmed KRO had been speaking with CP-RF about a loose alliance. The parties would try not to compete against each other in the regions. KRO is perceived as an up-and-coming party. (Kommersant Daily 9/2, Boston Globe 9/5, Muskovsky Novosti 9/12, Moscow Times 9/17)

YABLOKO: Yabloko continues to be the leading democratic reform party. Led by GRIGORY YAVLINSKY, the Moscow Times calls the group "a modest bloc with high approval." Yabloko runs as an opposition party to the government. It promises benefits to the middle class that got left behind in the reforms. It has a weak regional organization and runs on the strength and popularity of its leader. The party will cooperate in the regions with Russia's Democratic Choice , but will not merge with it during the parliamentary elections. Second on the party list is VLADIMIR LUKIN, Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Chair; third is TATYANA YARYGINA, a deputy who concentrates on social issues. Co-founder YURI BOLDYREV left the bloc prior to the party congress. (OMRI 9/15, NYT 9/14, Moscow Times 9/10, Segodnya 9/15, Moskovsky Novosti 9/19)

AGRARIAN PARTY: The Agrarian Party sees Our Home is Russia as its main rival. At the party congress, party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN called NDR policies anti-peasant and anti-populist. The party will campaign against a referendum proposed by Chernomyrdin on private property. The Agrarian party argues land should only belong to the rural workers. The platform of the party focuses on the anger of the agricultural workers. It calls for the restoration of the Soviet Union and the popular government in the sense of the Soviets. Also on the party list are 2. ALEXANDER NAZARCHUK, Agriculture Minister, and VASILY STARODUBTSEV, Chair of the Agriculture Union. IVAN RYBKIN, Speaker of the Duma, was removed from a leadership position in the party, but was not expelled. (OMRI 9/6, Moscow Times 9/16).

LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA (LDPR): LDPR's party congress was based on old Communist and Nazi party congresses with much pomp and circumstance. 2000 delegates attended. LDPR will run the maximum 270 list candidates and a candidate in every district. The party congress was fairly subdued in terms of rhetoric: it pledged to keep a multi-party system if it came to power; it called for a strong army, longer life spans, and a geo-political strategy for the next 100 years. The party list is headed by ZHIRINOVSKY, then comes 2. SERGEI ABELTSEV and 3. ALEXANDER VENGEROSKY, leader of the Duma faction. Recent polls show Zhirinovsky remains popular in the military. True to Zhirinovsky form, he was involved in a brawl on the floor of the Duma in early September and sent a letter of congratulations to the French on their nuclear tests. (OMRI 9/7, 9/11, Moskovsky Novosti 9/3, Moscow Times 9/10)

RUSSIA'S DEMOCRATIC CHOICE: YEGOR GAIDAR's party congress had a defeatist feel to it by many accounts. Many members feel Russia's Democratic Choice will not clear the 5% hurdle. However, Gaidar claimed the battle is not over yet. The party stands for freedom and opportunity versus opponents that stand for chauvinism, oppression, and stagnation. Gaidar blamed Yavlinsky for not cooperating. Number two on the party list in human rights defender SERGEI KOVALEV; number three is LIDIA FEDOSEYEVA-SHUKSHINA. The party appears to have funding problems. (Moscow Times 9/3)

WOMEN OF RUSSIA: YEKATERINA LAKHOVA, party leader says the Women of Russia will campaign independently, although it considers its closest allies to be the CP-RF and the Democratic Party of Russia. The party will push for constitutional amendments to bolster Duma powers relative to the executive branch; especially the right to appoint and review ministers. The party has 100 names on its list and 50 candidates running in districts. (OMRI 9/12, 9/27)

RYBKIN BLOC: The Rybkin bloc continues to fall apart. In the last month three of the major parties within the bloc have departed: the trade unions, the industrialists, and My Fatherland. This last group was particularly devastating because it took the number two and three candidates on the party list. Duma Speaker IVAN RYBKIN denied the departures were damaging, "Only six out of 270 individuals left." However, the CEC revoked the bloc's registration and forced it to re-register. Now the list includes besides Rybkin: 2. Deputy Duma Speaker ARTHUR CHILIN-GAROV and 3. YURI PETROV, leader, Union of Realists. (OMRI 9/18, 9/28, Moscow Rossiya 9/20, Moscow Times 9/14)

POWER TO THE PEOPLE: Power to the People is a new group led by former Soviet Prime Minister NIKOLAI RYZKOV, Duma Deputy SERGEI BABURIN, and 1991 coup plotter OLEG SHENIN. The party's goal is to restore government control over the economy and Russia's status as a superpower. They will compete for the left-wing and nationalist vote. (Moscow Times 8/27)

DERZHAVA: Former Russian Vice President ALEXANDER RUTSKOI's nationalist movement has been hit with infighting. Eight prominent members departed after claiming Rutskoi had included criminal elements on the party list to get funding for the party. They especially attacked VICTOR KOBALEV, Zhirinovsky's 1993 campaign manager, who is high on the party list. Rutskoi withdrew the list for review. He also recently claimed Derzhava "will endow Russia with incomparable military might and see to it that now looks down his nose at Russia." The party will run 270 candidates and in most single district seats. (OMRI 9/11, Segodnya 8/23, Financial Times 8/28)

FORWARD RUSSIA!: Fomer finance minister BORIS FEDOROV's party list includes: 2. Ms. BELA DENISENKO, Chairwoman of the Duma Committee on Health Care, and in a surprise, 3. ALEXANDER VLADISLAVLEV, leader of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. Fedorov recently charged government interference claiming some regional governors were preventing subordinates from joining the movement. He also claimed the IMF was propping up the central government. Fedorov claimed his party would win 10% of the vote. He also said he reads Newt Gingrich and has mailed the party's manifesto to every bureaucrat in the Russian White House. (omri, 8/15, 9/6, Moscow Times 9/10)

PARTY OF RUSSIAN UNITY AND ACCORD (PRES): SERGEI SHAKHRAI'S PRES withdrew from Our Home Is Russia in late August. It now intends to run independently. The party has promised if elected to do its utmost to dissolve the Duma and annul the electoral lists that created the Yabloko-Communist coalition. PRES expects only bad things from the next Duma. (OMRI 9/23)

IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?

A. Individuals
Matthew Lantz		Sergei Grigoriev
Cherno	30%	Lebed	30%
Lebed	20%	Chernomyrdn	7-10%
Yeltsin	15%	Yavlinsky	6-7%
Yavlinsky	10%	Zhirinovsky	7%
Zhirinovsky	5%	Yeltsin	<5%
Zyuganov	3%

A DISCUSSION EMERGED IN MOSCOW THAT CHERNOMYRDIN MIGHT BE REPLACED BY KRO HEAD YURI SKOKOV AS PRIME MINISTER. Most found this prospect unlikely, although recent reports say that YELTSIN is concerned about the political independence of Chernomyrdin. An Moscow Kuranty op-ed stated that if the new Duma was totally antagonistic toward Yeltsin, he would not remove Chernomyrdin on principle. Or if Chernomyrdin did well in the Duma elections, he would be groomed for the presidency in June. The worst case scenario is a mildly antagonistic Duma and a poor Chernomyrdin showing. Yeltsin prefers stability, so to appease the Duma, he might then replace Chernomyrdin to ensure tranquility. (Moscow Kuranty 9/19)

V. Poll Results For Elections.

INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION OF ELECTORAL SYSTEMS poll: A nationwide survey of 4070 Russians conducted in July found:

Presidential Elections		Parliamentary Elections:
Lebed	14%	Communists	14%
Yavlinsky	12%	Women of Russia	11%
Chernomyrdin	10%	Yabloko	9%
Yeltsin	7%

On social issues:	87% are unhappy with the way things are >50% feel inflation and falling standard of living are the largest problems in society.
	52% sought reestablishment of state control over the economy
	20% expect the economy to improve in the next 2 or 3 years
	40% expect the economy to worsen in the next 2 or 3 years
	80% feel state corruption is common place
	60% feel elected officials are only interested in helping themselves
	56% believe fraud took place in the 1993 election
	48% believe fraud will occur in the 1995 election
	32% claim to be uninterested in politics
	74% plan to vote in the December elections
(reported in Financial Times, Boston Globe, OMRI, 9/29)

Moscow Rossiya reported on 9/26 results of a monthly study of popularity ratings of electoral associations conducted by the Center of Strategic Analysis and Prognosis. It found the Communists remained the most popular and continued to climb because of strong organization. Our Home is Russia's popularity fell because of a week electoral list and SHAKHRAI's departure. Yabloko increased despite YURI BOLDYREV's departure because of YAVLINSKY's popularity and the weakening of other democratic forces. KRO moved up slightly, LDPR, Agrarians, and Women of Russia remained constant. Russia's Choice and Derzhava fell:

September 1995 popularity of Russian electoral associations based on results of assessments using a ten basic parameters including regional organization, intellectual positions, correspondence of program goals to mass expectations, finances:

1. Communists	6.7%
2. Yabloko (Yavlinsky)	5.8%
3. LDPR (Zhirinovsky)	5.7%
4. Our Home (Chernomyrdin)	5.5%
5. KRO (Lebed)	5.2%
6. Agrarians (Lapshin)	5.0%
7. Women of Russia (Lakhova)	4.8%
8. Rybkin Bloc	4.0%
9. PRES (Shakhrai)	3.7%
10.Sv. Fedorov's Party	3.7%

OMRI reported on 9/26 a poll by Vox Populi on Russian societal attitudes:

21% have a positive attitude toward democracy, while 55% have a negative

66% feel Russia is not heading in the right direction

37% seek rule by an iron hand, while 49% do not

29% support national/patriotic values, 49% oppose

38% support a return to socialism, 43% do not.

OMRI reported on 9/28 a poll reported in Verchernyaya Moskva on the ideas most attractive in election slogans of political parties: In order: law, human rights, justice, peace, order, labor, family, conscience, stability. Democracy placed 17th, but was in front of internationalism, dictator, and nationalism.

Moscow Kurranty reported on 9/22 results of a poll comparing a presidential race between ZYUGANOV and YAVLINSKY to determine if the society was forward looking or backward looking. "If you had to choose between Yavlinsky and Zyuganov, who would you vote for?" Yavlinsky: 26%, Zyuganov: 18%, against both: 21%, would not vote: 18%, hard to say: 17%. Of the Lebed supporters interviewed, they supported Yavlinsky over Zyuganov, 30% to 11%.

Argumenty i Fakty published on 9/7 results of a popularity poll conducted by the Institute for Systems of Research and Sociology. The poll stated a number of politicians and asked if the respondent had entirely positive, neutral, entirely negative, or hard to say responses. The four highest positive ratings were YAVLINSKY: 36%, LEBED: 34%, CHERNOMYRDIN: 32%, and RUTSKOI: 31%. The four highest negative ratings were: ZHIRINOVSKY: 59%, GORBACHEV: 54%, YELTSIN: 51%, ZYUGANOV: 38%.

Obshchaya Gazeta reported a poll on 9/6 by the Russia Public Opinion Fund that asked 1338 urban and rural respondents if they were willing to place their signature so YELTSIN can run for president: "If you were approached personally, would you affix your signature?" Probably will: 6%, Probably will not: 6%, Will not: 19%, Do not know: 60%.

Moskovsky Novosti reported in its Sept. 3-9 issue results of a poll of the military on which politician they most trusted. ZHIRINOVSKY was first with 15%, followed by YAVLINSKY, and ZYUGANOV. (LEBED not mentioned.)