|
|
|
|
The Russian Election Compendium
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
August 18, 1995, No. 8
To help track significant developments affecting Russian elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including a "betting chart." Individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as clearly as possible.
I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December 1995
| A. Individuals | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison (8/11): Director SDI Project |
85% | +5% |
| Sergei Grigoriev (8/17): SDI Project Fellow Former Spokesman for Gorbachev |
75% | +10% |
| John Lloyd (8/17) Former Moscow Bureau Chief Financial Times |
75% | |
| Matthew Lantz (8/17) SDI Project |
85% | +5% |
| B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections: | ||
DUMA PASSES DISTRICT BOUNDARY LAW IN SPECIAL SESSION: In a special session on August 12, the Duma overrode the Federation Council (Upper House) veto of the boundary law for district elections by a vote of 350 for, 5 against, and 2 abstaining. 300 votes were needed. The unexpected turnout and size of the unity demonstrated that the entire Duma seeks elections held in accordance with the law. Many feared using the old 1993 districts would give President Yeltsin the opportunity to overturn the results if they were not to his favor. Yeltsin is expected to sign the law within the next few days. (omri, 8/10, 8/12/95)
SVERDLOVSK REGION GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS HELD: No candidate attained more than 50% of vote. A runoff is scheduled on August 20 between the Chair of the Regional Duma, EDUARD ROSSELL (29%), and Sverdlovsk Regional Chair ALEXEI STRAKLOV (26%), the local leader of Prime Minister Chernomyrdin's Our Home Is Russia (ROH). The election was the first and likely last test of ROH before the parliamentary elections in December. Straklov had three times as much money as Rossell. Voter turnout was approximately 40%, well above the required 25%. (omri, 8/7, 8/8/95)
CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC) DETAILS CAMPAIGN SPENDING REQUIREMENTS: Instructions were in line with the election law passed on June 21. Campaign finances must be kept in a special temporary Sberbank account. The law dictates how bank accounts may be opened, limits on individual contributions, how money must be deposited, and how candidates must register receipts and expenditures of campaign funds. Failure to comply with the law may mean having a candidate or party's registration revoked. (omri, 8/10/95)
C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary Elections:
YELTSIN VETOES FEDERATION COUNCIL ELECTION LAW: The law which provided the election of deputies to the upper house was vetoed because it made the chamber too similar to the Duma. Currently, the chamber is formed by appointment from regional governors and heads of regional legislatures. The Duma claims it will not back down on its desire to see the upper house elected, but will work for a settlement in the conciliatory commission slated for August 28. (omri, 8/14, 8/15/95)
CEC HEAD NIKOLAI RYABOV IN CONFLICT WITH "FOR FAIR ELECTIONS": For Fair Elections, led by Duma deputies, ANATOLY SHABAD and VIKTOR SHEINIS seek independent observers to conduct a parallel vote count in the December elections to ensure accuracy of results. Ryabov responded angrily, "Not even a banana republic would allow a parallel vote count." He claimed For Fair Elections is "just a small group of people engaging in a provocation to undermine elections." He alluded to the group having CIA ties. Shabad responded, "The fact we want to exercise public control does not mean we were suspecting him of anything...I wonder why he reacted to our suggestion in such an angry way." (Moscow Times, 7/30/95)
II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June
| A. Individual | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison | 60% | +5% |
| Sergei Grigoriev | 60% | |
| John Lloyd | 55% | |
| Matthew Lantz | 50% |
III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Graham Allison | John Lloyd | ||
| Our Home is Russia (NDR) | 25% | CP-RF | 20% |
| Yabloko | 19% | ROH | 20% |
| Communist Party (CP-RF) | 15% | Yabloko | 14% |
| Sergei Grigoriev | Matthew Lantz | ||
| Communist Party (CP-RF) | 20% | CP-RF | 20% |
| Our Home is Russia (ROH) | 15% | ROH | 16% |
| (Chernomyrdin) | Agrarian | 12% | |
| Yabloko (Yavlinsky) | 15% | Lebed | 12% |
| Congress of Russian Communities | Yabloko | 10% | |
| (RKO -Gen. Lebed) | 13% | LDPR | 9% |
| Agrarian Party | 12% | Women of R | 6% |
| Rybkin Bloc | 8% | RChoice | 5% |
| Women of Russia | 7% | Rybkin Bloc | 5% |
| Liberal Democratic Party | 5% | Extreme Nationalists | |
| (Zhirinovsky) | 4% | ||
| Russia's Choice | 5% | ||
| Others: | |||
Oleg Soskovets (member ROH): ROH hopes to gain 30% of Duma seats. Ivan Rybkin (Duma Speaker): The three centrist groups (his bloc, Our Home is Russia and the Agrarians) will get 50% of the Duma seats. Mikhail Lapshin (Agrarian Party Leader):Our party, with the Communists, will achieve 50% of the Duma seats.
B. New Evidence:
OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (ROH) PARTY CONFERENCE: At the second party conference district candidates were not selected because of the lack of a district boundary law. A conference in early September will do this. The party laid out its platform which stated relations with the government will be one of "critical solidarity." The party will not dissolve itself of the government, but also will not back the government uncritically. Speaking prior to the conference, Prime Minister VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN stated the party should embrace being called the "Party of Power." "We should be a party of power elected by the people." Chairman of the Party Program, ALEXANDER SHOKIN, claims the party seeks to pay state debts to industry and compensate citizens, especially the elderly.
Comments on the conference said that ROH is occupying the conservative center, which has been void for two years. The party's goal is to win the support of the regional leaders. However, Kommersant Daily reported the party's image is being defined not by its leaders and their vision, but by opponents and the media. The leaders are still uncertain about strategy and tactics of the movement. (Segodnya, 8/9/95, omri, 8/14/95, Moskovsky Komsomolets, 8/16/95, Kommersant Daily, 8/16/95)
RYBKIN BLOC STILL DISORGANIZED: Duma Speaker IVAN RYBKIN is still having trouble organizing his bloc, which is to play the center-left counterpart to the Chernomyrdin Bloc. Despite 50 small parties, few big names have joined the group. VASILY LIPITSY'S Social Democratic Union has left the bloc opting to campaign independently because the bloc was not socialist enough. A party congress is planned for early September. Rybkin is holding half of the bloc's election slate for the Agrarian Party, which has refused to join his bloc. Rybkin claims he will cooperate with the Agrarians in the regions and does not want to see the party split. One Western diplomat said of Rybkin's formation woes, "This is really just Yeltsin giving people the appearance of choice. In fact, these blocs are the just the same." (Segodnya, 8/16/95, omri, 8/15/95, Moscow Times 7/30/95)
LIKELY FINANCIAL BACKING FOR PARTIES: A report in August 17th's Izvestia claimed Yabloko, Russia's Choice, and Our Home is Russia are more likely to obtain foreign support than the Communists. Domestic banks are likely to support "rightist" parties, while agrarian interests will support Communist parties and their allies. In two surprising results, the military- industrial complex is not united in its support of GEN. ALEXANDER LEBED'S Congress of Russian Communities, preferring to support an array of parties. Likewise, Gazprom, the natural gas giant that Prime Minister VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN used to lead, may divide its support. (omri, 8/17/95)
POSSIBILITY OF SPLIT IN AGRARIAN PARTY: VASILY STARODUBTSEV, chair of the Agrarian Union, part of the Agrarian Party, is unhappy with Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL LAPSHIN'S election list selection process. Lapshin wants all candidates confirmed by the Agrarian Party Congress. Starodubtsev claims this violates the Agrarian Union's rights and Lapshin seeks to be the sole leader of the party without taking into account the party partners. Lapshin claims his party, cooperating with the Communists, can win 50% of the Duma. His party will also support a joint presidential candidate with the Communists. (omri, 8/8/95)
ALLIANCE OF COMMUNIST PARTIES UNLIKELY: YURI SEVENARD, a Duma deputy of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CP-RF), believes his party will not ally with other Communist parties. Although a united Communist Party would be desirable, it is impossible given the radical contradiction in views between the parties. (omri, 8/9/95)
GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED ANNOUNCES CORNERSTONES OF RUSSIAN STATEHOOD: They include spiritual might of the Russian church, creative spirit of Russian people, and valor of the Russian army. Lebed claims these have been neglected or destroyed by the Russian state authorities. (Moskovsky Pravda, 8/15/95)
EX-RUSSIAN VICE PRESIDENT ALEXANDER RUTSKOI AGGRESSIVELY HITS CAMPAIGN TRAIL FOR DERZHAVA MOVEMENT: Rutskoi believes his movement can win the majority of the parliamentary seats. He has been the most active campaigner thus far, by already visiting 49 districts. His campaign is being managed by VIKTOR KOBALEV, who organized Zhirinovsky's successful 1993 campaign. Derzhava believes in the unacceptability of democratic principles for the Russian people. The party platform calls for a return of orthodox religion as a basis for Russian statehood and restoration of the Russian empire. The future Russian state should be a multinational state with Russian people at its core and led by a president of national/orthodox orientation. (omri 8/10/95, Zavtra, 8/1/95)
DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA (DPR) TO CAMPAIGN ON TWO PARTY LISTS: Party Chairman SERGEI GLAZYEV will run on YURI SKOKOV'S and ALEXANDER LEBED'S Congress of Russian Communities (RKO) list. STANISLAV GOVORUKIN, leader of the party's Duma faction will run on ophthalmologist SVYATOSLAV FEDOROV'S Party of Popular Self Government list. In 1993 the DPR barely cleared the 5% hurdle to get into the Duma. The new strategy is to ensure as much DPR representation as possible in the Duma. (omri, 8/8/95)
FORMER FINANCE MINISTER BORIS FEDOROV'S FORWARD, RUSSIA! MOVEMENT ANNOUNCES ELECTION LIST: Fedorov holds the first position. Ms. BELA DENISENKO, Chairwoman of the Duma Committee on Health Care is second, and in a surprise, ALEXANDER VLADISLAVLEV, leader of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, is third. (omri, 8/15/95)
TWO MUSLIM ORGANIZATIONS PREPARE FOR ELECTIONS: The union of Muslims, led by AKMET KHALITOV, organized this year to represent the interests of muslims of various political orientation through 50 regional organizations. The All Russian "Nur" (light), led by KHALIT YAKHIN, also claims to represent muslims and says it has 47 regional organizations. Both men have past ties with VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY'S Liberal Democratic Party. (omri, 8/10/95)
IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Matthew Lantz | Sergei Grigoriev | ||
| Cherno | 30% | Lebed | 25-30% |
| Lebed | 20% | Cherno | 20% |
| Yavlinsky | 16% | Yavlinsky | 15% |
| Yeltsin | 14% | Ryzhkov | 10% |
| Zhirinovsky | 5% | Yeltsin | 10% |
| Zyuganov | 3% | Zyuganov | 8% |
| Rybkin | 3% | Zhirinovsky | 5% |
| Luzhkov | 3% | ||
| Other | 6% |
YELTSIN'S REELECTION CHANCES ASSESSED: ILYA ROYTMAN, a political scientist and key member of Committee to Nominate Yeltsin, says there are no other feasible candidates: Yavlinsky may not get the support of the Communists, Lebed does not have the organization, and Chernomyrdin will not run against Yeltsin. If Yeltsin decrees Chernomyrdin as his successor, the Committee will work for him. ALEXANDER LIVSHITS, a Yeltsin advisor says results of a study on Yeltsin's reelection prospects will be completed in September, and Yeltsin's staff will advise him accordingly. (Kommersant Daily, 8/11/95)
V. Poll Results For Elections.
The Financial Times reported on July 26, 1995 the results of a recent poll of 1600 urban residents conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Center saying that less than 10% of respondents had even heard of either of the two centrist blocs (Our Home Is Russia and Rybkin's center-left bloc).
The Financial Times reported a poll on August 1, 1995 conducted face-to-face in April by the All Russian Center For Public Opinion, backed by the University of Strathclyde stating that _ of respondents do not plan to vote, _ do not know who they will vote for, and 39% will scatter their votes between 14 groups. In the poll Yeltsin got a 10% approval rating and a 72% disapproval rating. 83% rejected using force to protect ethnic Russians abroad.
Segodnya reported a poll on August 10, 1995 conducted by the All Russian Center For Public Research conducted in June stating that Yabloko enjoys the highest support of the electorate.
Unattributed poll taken in every region discussed if in a second round presidential election ALEXANDER LEBED were pitted against Yeltsin, Zhirinovsky, or Yavlinsky, what would the results be? Against Yeltsin and Zhirinovsky, Lebed won in every region. Against Yavlinsky, Lebed won in every region except Moscow and St. Petersburg.
VI. ANALYSIS
• ON THE ELECTION BOUNDARIES: With the passage of the district elections boundary law, the December parliamentary elections are at last on track. All that remains is for President Boris Yeltsin to sign the legislation. The fact that the veto of the Federation Council was overridden so handily (350 votes when 300 were needed) in a special session of the Duma where most deputies had to come back from vacation signifies two important points. First, the deputies of the Duma are leaving nothing to chance in the preparation for elections. Recent events in Kazakhstan, where the Kazakh President threw out election results because of a misstep in the election law process, invoked fear that the same might happen in Russia if the new boundary law were not officially approved by the late August deadline. Second, the size of the vote confirms that almost all parties, regardless of political orientation, seek elections this December.
•ON OUR HOME IS RUSSIA AND CAMPAIGN THEMES: In an effort to make crime and corruption prevention an issue is his bloc's campaign, Prime Minister VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN has called for a full investigation into the recent murders of prominent Moscow businessmen. Along with the falling standard of living, preventing crime and corruption is the major concern of the Russian people in the upcoming election. However, crimes against bankers are not important election issues to the everyday man. If Chernomyrdin hopes to make a stand against crime and corruption to win votes, he must start with executive branch corruption. A few highly publicized arrests of corrupt officials would do much to show that his bloc is serious on the issue. As for the falling standard of living, Mr. Chernomyrdin should listen to the common man, as Boris Yeltsin used to do. Perhaps a trip to a nursing home, without his entire entourage, where he is shown listening to pensioners' woes and even getting lectured by them, would give the prime minister more of a "man of the people" image.
•ON THE RYBKIN BLOC: Speaker IVAN RYBKIN'S bloc is still in disarray, while Our Home Is Russia is proceeding onward. The groups's problem is that there are few real distinctions between the two blocs, and most politicians do not want to join an opposition bloc where they see fewer spoils of office coming their way. The Agrarian Party is the key for the Rybkin Bloc. Originally, the agrarians were seen as anchoring the center-left bloc, but when the Agrarian Party's leader, MIKHAIL LAPSHIN, opted to campaign independently in coordination with the Communists, the Rybkin bloc lost its grounding. Rumors persist that the Agrarian Party might split. This seems the only way that the Rybkin Bloc might ever materialize to be a serious contender in the December elections.
Email this citation