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The Russian Election Compendium
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
July 7, 1995, No. 5
To help identify significant developments affecting Russian Elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project offers a simplified summary including individual's estimates of the likelihood of Russian elections and their results. The estimated probabilities are an indication of judgements of the individuals named.
I. The Probability of Duma Elections in December 1995
| A. Individuals | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison (6/17): SDI Project |
80% | +5% |
| John Lloyd (5/17): SDI Project Fellow Financial Times |
70% | |
| Sergei Grigoriev (7/7): SDI Project Fellow Former Spokesman for Gorbachev |
65% | -5% |
| Matthew Lantz (7/7) SDI Project |
80% | -5% |
| B. Recent Events in Favor of Parliamentary Elections: | ||
SECOND NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION IN GOVERNMENT FAILS: (See next section for description of first no-confidence vote) In response to the likelihood that the Duma would not vote for confidence in the government, Yeltsin dismissed three "Power Ministers" associated with the Chechen War. Gone are Victor Yerin, Minister for the Interior, Sergei Stepashin, Head of the FSB - the KGB successor organization, and Nikolai Yegorov, Deputy PM for Nationalities. The most disliked minister, Defense Minister Pavel Grachev, submitted his resignation, but Yeltsin refused it. Furthermore, at Yegor Gaidar's suggestion, the vote was altered from a confidence motion, to that of no-confidence in the government, thus allowing abstentions to help keep the government in power. Both events allowed the Duma a face-saving measure to back down. Finally, fear of early elections and loss of parliamentary privileges also swayed some votes.
In the second vote, only 193 deputies voted for no-confidence in the government (226 needed). Voting against the government again were members of Yabloko, the Communists, and the Democratic Party of Russia. The Agrarian Party mostly abstained. The failure of this motion helped strengthen the hand of PM Victor Chernomyrdin and ensured elections would not be moved up to October. (various sources).
YELTSIN SIGNS DUMA ELECTION LAW: According to Radio Rossii, Yeltsin signed the Duma election law, despite the fact it contained many of the clauses that had caused him to veto it in May. (omri 6/22/95)
C. Recent Events in Opposition to Parliamentary Elections:
DUMA PASSES FIRST NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE IN GOVERNMENT, 240-71 WITH 20 ABSTENTIONS. The vote was introduced by the Democratic Party of Russia, and had the support of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, The Agrarian Party, Yabloko, the New Regional Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party. Abstaining or voting on behalf of the government were Russia's Choice, Women of Russia, PRES, and Stability.
According to the Russian Constitution, the first vote is not binding, but if a second no confidence vote passes in three months, the President must sack the government or disband the parliament. Yeltsin has called for a second vote and has threatened to disband the parliament if it passes. He says he will call early elections. PM Chernomyrdin, also does not want the threat of a second vote hanging over the government's head for three months, he has called for the second vote, but also seeks a compromise by seeking to remove some of the power ministers involved in the Chechen war. No binding votes to remove the ministers of defense, interior, a deputy PM and the head of intelligence failed in the Duma on the same day, because Zhirinovsky's LDPR did not support the measures.
The final vote of confidence will occur on July 1st. A positive 226 votes of confidence will be needed by the government to pass. Only 70 votes existed in the first attempt. (omri)
YELTSIN IMPEACHMENT ATTEMPTED BY COMMUNISTS: According to Article 109 of the Russian constitution, "The President cannot disband the parliament once a motion of impeachment has been passed by 2/3 of the majority of the Duma." To get the motion discussed, the CP-RF attempted to gain 226 signatures. Their effort failed at only 172 signatures. The Agrarian party and Democratic Russia joined the Communists. (omri)
II. Probability of Presidential Elections in June
| A. Individual | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison | 55% | +15% |
| John Lloyd | 55% | |
| Sergei Grigoriev | 60% | |
| Matthew Lantz | 55% | +5% |
III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Graham Allison | John Lloyd | ||
| Sergei Grigoriev | Matthew Lantz | ||
| CP-RF | 20% | CP-RF | 22% |
| Cherno | 15% | Agparty | 15% |
| Yabloko | 15% | Cherno | 12% |
| Com/Nat. Coalition | Yabloko | 12% | |
| (RKO, DPR) | 13% | Lebed Party | 9% |
| Agparty | 12% | LDPR | 8% |
| Rybkin | 8% | RChoice | 6% |
| Women of R | 7% | Women of R | 6% |
| LDPR | 5% | Rybkin | 5% |
| RChoice | 5% | Nationalists | 5% |
| B. New Evidence: |
Communists, Agrarians, LDPR, Yabloko, Democratic Party of Russia, New Regional Policy support first no-confidence vote in government. Russia's Choice, Women of Russia, Stability, PRES abstain or vote with government. In second vote many Agrarians abstain. (omri, 6/22/95)
WHO WOULD EARLY ELECTIONS HURT MOST? Gleb Cherkasov investigates this question. All serious parties have started preparations for a December campaign, but none are ready. Some argue Chernomyrdin's Russian is Our Home would be hurt greatly: a party must be registered 6 months prior to the elections. ROH would fail, but it is expected that it could get around this. Second, early elections would not give ROH time to clean up the Chechnya mess and print money to ease the economic burden, says an opponent. The Rybkin Bloc would also be hurt by early elections; it needs the ensuing months to organize. The democratic forces would be especially hurt because they would not have any time to put aside their personal squabbles and unite. Finally, the country would be hurt, because August is a vacation month in Russia; few would follow politics. (Sevodnya, 6/24/95)
GAIDAR LETTER CLAIMS YAVLINSKY FAILURE TO JOIN OTHER DEMOCRATS COSTS REFORM FORCES 16% OF VOTES. Cites a poll by All- Russian Central Public Opinion Research Institute (see last section) which states 40% of voters would vote for a Yabloko/Russia's Choice alliance. While alone the parties receive only 16% and 8% respectively. Gaidar concludes a union of democrats is stronger than its parts.
In the same letter Gaidar reaffirms Russia's Choice will not join Chernomyrdin's Russia is Our Home because of differences on military reform, draft legislation, corruption in the civil service, and Chechnya. However, to defeat extremists, the party is willing to cooperate with ROH in the regions. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 6/15/95)
RUSSIA'S CHOICE FORMS NEW UNION OF DEMOCRATIC ELECTORAL BLOC: Joining Gaidar's party will be the smaller parties: Party of Social Democracy, Women for Solidarity, Peasant's Party, Confederation of Russia's National Organizations. Democratic Russia may also join. No word from Yavlinsky. (Sevodnya 6/17/95)
RUSSIA IS OUR HOME IN THE REGIONS: Chernomyrdin's organization founded a branch in Bryansk. Moscow representative Ryzhenkov said the main objective of ROH is to bring into the Duma people who will work professionally. Vladimir Karpov will lead the regional branch. (Sevodnya, 6/21/95)
NEW ELECTION LAW WILL HIT YABLOKO ESPECIALLY HARD: New law requires parties to only have 12 members on their lists from the Moscow region. Yabloko is especially Moscow-based. They have few regional leaders and the regions will not like having Moscow politicians taking their places. Yavlinsky heads the list, with Vladimir Lukin second. The next eight come from Yavlinsky's Epicenter research organization. This leaves two spaces which will probably be sold (a common practice according to the article). The party would like to leave one space for General Lebed. (Sevodnya 6/21/95)
DEMOCRATIC CHOICE OF RUSSIA TO CAMPAIGN ALONE (WITHOUT CONGRESS OF RUSSIAN COMMUNITIES [RKO]): DPR leader Sergei Glazyev states that his party will seek elections without joining Yuri Skokov's RKO. For Skokov, the DPR demands were too high: four of the 12 Moscow list spots; leadership of the Duma faction and staff; first third of the places on regional lists; presence of the DPR party name in the name of the bloc; and finally, General Lebed on the first spot on the list - Skokov had reserved this for himself. Skokov needed the DPR for its regional organizations; the DPR needed RKO for its funding of those regional branches. The results? The DPR is old and well established, it should clear the 5% hurdle, says the article. The RKO is new; it depends on Lebed's stature at the election. (Kommersant Daily, 6/24/95)
ZHIRINOVSKY AND BUDENNOVSK: Vladimir Zhirinovsky was the only major politician to go to crisis area. Contrasted to Yeltsin in Canada. Quote by a local resident in the Washington Post after failed government storming attempt, "I didn't believe Zhirinovsky; I thought he would bring back the gulag, but now I plan to vote for him." (6/19/95)
D. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Graham Allison | Matthew Lantz | ||
| Yeltsin | 25% | Cherno | 30% |
| Cherno | 20% | Yeltsin | 20% |
| Rybkin | 10% | Lebed | 15% |
| Yavlinsky | 10% | Yavlinsky | 12% |
| Lebed | 10% | Zyuganov | 5% |
| Other | 25% | Zhirinovsky | 3% |
| Rybkin | 3% | ||
| Luzhkov | 3% | ||
| B. Fedorov | 3% | ||
| Other | 6% | ||
| Sergei Grigoriev | |||
| Lebed | 25-30% | ||
| Cherno | 20% | ||
| Yavlinsky | 15% | ||
| Ryzhkov | 10% | ||
| Yeltsin | 10% | ||
| Zyuganov | 8% | ||
| Zhirinovsky | 5% | ||
| B. New Evidence: |
CHERNOMYRDIN'S POLITICAL STAR RISES: A good two weeks for the PM. He first successfully negotiated the end to the Budennovsk hostage crisis, which won him international and domestic applause. He then earned praise from visiting VP Albert Gore saying, "The longer one works with Chernomyrdin, the deeper one's respect grows for his ability to get things done." He then successfully weathered the second no-confidence vote in his government. Finally, he made a speech saying his government would stay the course on economic reforms. (various sources, Boston Globe, 7/1/95)
BUDENNOVSK CRISIS AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: Izvestia political commentator Konstantin Egart said, "At the very least, it means that President Yeltsin does not intend to run for President in 1996; no one doubts that he has no chance...For all intents and purposes, this was the beginning of Chernomyrdin's election campaign." (NYT 6/20/95)
LEBED INTERVIEW: General Alexander Lebed says he would be happy to return to the army, but not under Defense Minister Pavel Grachev. He therefore has no other choice but politics. "I consider myself a centrist; I detest radicals on both the left and the right. Extremists do no good." He would not share with whom he has held political discussions. (Obschaya Gazetta, 6/21/95)
WOMEN FORCE LEBED'S SUCCESSOR BACK TO MOSCOW: A group of women protested Lebed's departure by standing on the runway where Moscow picked successor Valery Yevenich was due to land. They also protested/blockaded his hotel. Said one participant, "Yevenich go home, Lebed is the only guarantor of peace in the region." (Financial Times/NYT 6/18-9/95)
YELTSIN ADVISOR ON REGIONAL ELECTIONS: Vyacheslav Volkov, deputy chief of staff to Yeltsin, says regional elections for executives should take place after the June Presidential elections. Early regional elections would threaten stability on eve of presidential elections. He also asserted that federal legislation is needed before regional elections can be administered. (omri 6/21/95)
YELTSIN TO ALLOW REGIONAL ELECTIONS IN NIZHNY NOVGOROD: Date will be set soon. Governor Boris Nemtsov, who will run for reelection, favors the same date as the December parliamentary elections. Sverdlovsk will hold its local election, at Yeltsin's approval, in August. (omri 6/23/95)
E. Poll Results For Elections.
POLL REPORTED IN ROSSIYA, 6/14/95: In Chernomyrdin's home region of Orenburg, Yavlinsky is twice as popular as Chernomyrdin. Participants ranked the parties. Results (no percentages given):
| 1. Yabloko |
| 2. People's Conscience Party (Alexi Kazannik) |
| 3. CP-RF |
| 4. Russia's Choice |
| 5. Women of Russia |
| 6. Liberal Democratic Party |
POLL CITED BY GAIDAR IN MOSKOVSKY KOMSOMOLETS, 6/15/95: Conducted by All-Russian Central Public Opinion Research Institute of Russian urban population:
If election were tomorrow, who would you support?
1. Yabloko16% 2. CP-RF11% 3. LDPR11% 4. Russia's Choice 8% Which of the following coalitions would you support?
Yavlinsky/Gaidar40% Bloc of State Patriotic Forces (Zyuganov)23% Russia is Our Home23%
IZVESTIA ARTICLE PREDICTING ELECTION RESULTS, 6/23/95: 50% of population will not vote, in the reform side: Russia's Choice will get 3-5 million votes and win no more than 25 seats, Yabloko will get 40 seats off the list and another 20 from the regions, Fedorov, will not clear the 5% hurdle, so he must ally with others. Maximum Reform Seats: 90.
Center is less predictable: Lebed and Chernomyrdin Blocs: 120-200 seats. Nationalists: Rutskoi, Baburin, Zhirinovsky: 90-110 seats.
| Final results: | 1stCommunists/Agrarians |
| 2ndPatriots | |
| 3rdCentrists | |
| 4thLiberals |
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