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The Russian Election Compendium
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
June 16, 1995, No. 4
I. The Probability of Duma Elections in December 1995
| A. Individuals | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison (5/17): SDI Project |
75% | |
| John Lloyd (5/17): SDI Project Fellow Financial Times |
70% | |
| Sergei Grigoriev (6/16): SDI Project Fellow Former Spokesman for Gorbachev |
70% | |
| Matthew Lantz (6/16) SDI Project |
85% | +5% |
| B. Recent Events in Favor of Parliamentary Elections: | ||
YELTSIN AND DUMA AGREE ON DUMA ELECTION LAW COMPROMISE: Yeltsin accepts the 225:225 list to district election proportion. Duma agrees the federal lists will only contain 12 candidates; the rest of the candidates must represent a particular region. Candidates running simultaneously on party lists and in district races must collect 5000 signatures, which will in turn count toward the 200,000 needed to register its list in the campaign. The government and members of the media can continue in their jobs while running for office, but in a vaguely worded clause, are prohibited from abusing their office for campaign purposes. Yeltsin accepted the 25% threshold the Duma desired. The compromise also prohibited holding the election in two rounds, as Yeltsin sought. The State Duma voted 264-45 to accept the compromises; the Federation Council will take up the document on June 13. (omri 6/8,9,12/95)
AFTER FAILING IN FIRST ATTEMPT, UPPER HOUSE APPROVES DUMA ELECTION LAW BY VOTE 113-9: In a reversal of the previous day's vote that fell short by 14 votes, the upper house approved the compromise Duma election law. The key factor swinging the votes was a speech made by the head of the Federation Council, Vladimir Shumeiko, warning the upper house that the Duma would override their negative vote anyway, and the President intended to sign the bill. Presidential advisor Georgy Satarov, also modified a previous statement that the President would face a difficult choice if the Federation Council rejected the bill, by saying the President would now sign the bill. After the negative vote on Wednesday, June 14, members of both chambers accused the Presidential apparatus of masterminding the failure in the hopes of postponing the elections. Izvestia on June 15, warned failure to enact the legislation could endanger the upcoming elections and threaten the political scene all together.(omri, 6/15-16/95)
CHAIR OF CENTRAL ELECTION COMMITTEE, NIKOLAI RYABOV, WELCOMES CREATION OF WATCHDOG GROUP: Says he hopes "For Honest Elections," the group created by democratic forces, wouldn't limit its activities to just supervising vote counts. (omri 6/8/95).
C. Recent Events in Opposition to Parliamentary Elections:
GORBACHEV WARNS OF POTENTIAL OF POSTPONING OF ELECTIONS: Reported in Moscow News: "An alarming presentiment will arise: the elections may not take place at all, or they will be held in such a way that it will distort the elections and end up preserving the existing regime and present day political course." (MN, 6/2-8/95)
DUMA QUESTIONS ROLE OF AUTOMATED VOTE COUNTING SYSTEM: Do not fear computer technology so much as possibility of vote rigging, which could be facilitated by the computer system. Fear creating a system where the outcomes could be altered. System is called "ELECTIONS." Other questions over system: who owns, who uses, what are the costs, why use foreign material, who has access to it between elections, and how might it be used then? (Kommersant Daily, 6/2/95)
II. Probability of Presidential Elections in June
| A. Individual | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison | 40% | |
| John Lloyd | 55% | |
| Sergei Girgoriev | 60% | |
| Matthew Lantz | 55% | +5% |
III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Graham Allison | John Lloyd | ||
| Sergei Girgoriev | Matthew Lantz | ||
| CP-RF | 20% | CP-RF | 22% |
| Agparty | 15% | Agparty | 15% |
| Com/Nat. | 15% | Cherno | 12% |
| Coalition (RKO, DPR,etc.) | Yabloko | 12% | |
| Yabloko | 15% | Lebed Party | 9% |
| Cherno | 10% | LDPR | 8% |
| Rybkin | 8% | RChoice | 6% |
| RChoice | 5% | Women of R | 6% |
| LDPR | 5% | Rybkin | 5% |
| Missing | 7% | Nationalists | 5% |
| B. New Evidence: |
*FORMATION OF UNITED DEMOCRATIC ELECTORAL BLOC (ODIB): A group of reform-minded parties and groups was formed this week to run only one candidate in each single member Duma constituency. This was major complaint in the 1993 defeat of the reform democrats in the Parliementary elections. Members of ODIB include Gaidar's Russia's Democratic Choice, Yakolev's Russian Party of Social Democracy, Yuri Chernichenko's Peasant's Party, Soldiers for Democracy, Women for Solidarity, and the Congress of National Associations of Russia. Yuri Skhokov's Congress of Russian Communities (RKO) (Lebed's supposed party) also said he would join according to public TV. Talks are also being held with Democratic Russia. Yabloko, the second largest reform party has not been included. (omri 6/18/95)
RYBKIN FORMS CENTER-LEFT BLOC: Russia's Regions in their second annual conference elected Duma Speaker Ivan Rybkin their leader. Said will form a unified bloc with the Agrarian Party. (no response yet from Agrarian Party). Rybkin will lead. If win majority, Rybkin will remain speaker and Lapshin will lead electoral bloc. (omri, 6/9/95)
COMMUNIST PARTY DOES WELL IN LOCAL ELECTION: In North Caucasian Republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessia, the CP-RF won 27 of 73 seats. Participation was 69% validating the results. Nationalist organizations of the republic fared poorly said the Chairman of the Election Commission. (omri, 6/12/95)
SEGODNYA POLL FINDS POPULARITY OF BORIS FEDOROV APPROACHING THAT OF YAVLINSKY. Also claims Communists and LDPR might try to attract victims of financial fraud be promising to reimburse their losses. (Segodnya, 6/8/95)
D. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Graham Allison | Matthew Lantz | ||
| Yeltsin | 20% | Cherno | 30% |
| Rybkin | 10% | Yeltsin | 25% |
| Cherno | 10% | Lebed | 12% |
| Yavlinsky | 10% | Yavlinsky | 10% |
| Lebed | 10% | Zyuganov | 5% |
| Other | 40% | Zhirinovsky | 3% |
| Rybkin | 3% | ||
| Luzhkov | 3% | ||
| B. Fedorov | 3% | ||
| Other | 6% | ||
| Sergei Grigoriev | |||
| Lebed | 25-30% | ||
| Cherno | 15% | ||
| Ryzhkov | 15% | ||
| Yavlinsky | 15% | ||
| Yeltsin | 10% | ||
| Zyuganov | 8% | ||
| Zhirinovsky | 5% | ||
| B. New Evidence: |
YELTSIN SAYS TOO EARLY TO DECIDE PRESIDENTIAL BID: Announcement would be too disruptive. If he says yes, every action would be considered a political move. If he said no, would disrupt work of executive branch. (omri, 6/12/95)
OUTCOME OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS PREDICTED BY MOSCOW ACADEMIC: Georgy Shakinazarov predicts presidential elections are the only way out of the present critical situation. Yeltsin, Zhirinovsky, and Zyuganov have practically no chance. Chernomyrdin is the closest to personifying the change of non-heroic, workaholic-type president that is becoming more and more popular. Although he does not rule out a new, yet unknown candidate emerging. (Moskovsky Komosolets, 6/3/95)
POLL OF MOST TRUSTWORTHY LEADERS: A poll of 2429 Muscovites over May 23,24 revealed Yavlinsky, Moscow Mayor Luzhkov, and Yeltsin (!) to be the most trustworthy political leaders. (Moskovsky Komosolets, 6/6/95)
YELTSIN ALLOWS LEBED TO RESIGN: May have a significant impact on Russian politics, should Lebed decide to enter the fray. Lebed announces he will not leave position until officially notified he is relieved of duty. (Boston Globe 6/15/95)
E. Public Opinion Foundation Poll Results For Parliamentary Elections.
Results of the poll appear in Moscow News June 2-8, 1995. Main results: Biggest winners Communist Party of Russian Federation, Yabloko, Women of Russia. Agrarians only gain 2% of vote (which seems remarkably low and calls into to question the results of the poll.)
Participants asked: "Had the elections to the State Duma taken place today, for the representatives of which political parties from those given below are you going to vote?"
| March | April | May | |
| Agrarian Party (Lapshin) | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Forward Russia (B. Fedorov) | - | 5% | 2% |
| Democratic Choice of Russia (Gaidar) | 6% | 4% | 5% |
| Dem. Party of Russia (Glazyev) | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Women of Russia (Lakhova) | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| CP-RF (Zuganov) | 9% | 7% | 6% |
| Congress of Rus. Communities (Lebed) | - | 2% | 2% |
| Lib. Democratic Party (Zhirinovsky) | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| Derzhava (Rutskoi) | - | 4% | 2% |
| PRES (Shakhrai) | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Rus. United Indust. Par. (Shcherbakov) | - | 0% | 1% |
| Par. of Self-Gov't of Working People | - | 4% | 4% |
| Party of Social Democracy (Yakovlev) | - | 0% | 0% |
| Yabloko (Yavlinsky) | 9% | 8% | 6% |
| Chernomyrdin Bloc | - | - | 4% |
| Rybkin Bloc | - | - | 2% |
Also asked: "The representatives of which parties and movements would you not like to see under any circumstances elected to the State Duma?" 36% said LDPR, 20% said Russia's Democratic Choice.
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