The Russian Election Compendium

RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
June 8, 1995, No. 3

Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government

I. The Probability of Duma Elections in December 1995

A. Individuals	Likelihood	Change From Last Week
Graham Allison (5/17): SDI Project	75%
John Lloyd (5/17): SDI Project Fellow Financial Times	70%
Alexei Ulyukaev (5/5): Russia's Democratic Choice Moscow Head	90%
Matthew Lantz (5/22) SDI Project	80%
B. Recent Events in Favor of Parliamentary Elections:

PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN SERGEI FILATOV SAYS ELECTIONS WILL TAKE PLACE. Responding to the question will the parliamentary and presidential elections take place? "A law has passed. For the time being I am 99% certain that they will take place. But I say 99% because anything can happen in this country." (Moskovsky Komsomolets 6/1/95)

OP-ED SEES ROOM FOR COMPROMISE ON VETO. Especially on turnout threshold and non-use of office benefits by candidates. Does not feel the 225:225 ratio will change. (Kommersant Daily 5/30/95).

FEDERATION COUNCIL SPEAKER SHUMEIKO WILLING TO COMPROMISE ON ELECTORAL LAW: In a reversal of a policy announced on June 1, Shumeiko said will allow the 225:225 ratio to stand. (omri 6/7/95)

ELECTION WATCHDOG GROUP TO BE CREATED: Politicians from several democratic political parties founded the "For Honest Elections" group to set up a network of election observers to supervise vote counting in December. Parties involved include: Russia's Choice, Yabloko, People's Party of Russia, Civic Union, Common Cause, and Democratic Russia. (omri 6/6/95)

C. Recent Events in Opposition to Parliamentary Elections:

DUMA QUESTIONS ELECTRONIC VOTING SYSTEM PROPOSED BY YELTSIN: Worry about confidentiality and the fact the system is foreign, when domestic versions may be available. Executive Branch plan has 500 computers and costs Rb160 billion ($32 million). Will be used to streamline the vote counting process and to decrease spending on administration of election campaigns. (omri 5/30/95) CONCILIATORY COMMISSION FAILS TO COMPROMISE ON DUMA ELECTORAL LAW: The Federation Council representatives agreed to the 225:225 split, but called for restrictions on party lists including no region be allowed more than 30% of their list to be from one region (to limit Moscow influence) and that deputies running simultaneously in a district and on a list get signatures of 1% of the voters in the district. Duma representatives agreed to the proposal, but would not endorse the regional limit on party lists. (omri 6/6/95)

II. Probability of Presidential Elections in June

A. Individual	Likelihood	Change From Last Week
Graham Allison	40%
John Lloyd	55%
Alexei Ulyukaev	60%
Matthew Lantz	50%
B. Recent Events in Favor of Presidential Elections:

See above statement by Filatov reported in June 1 Moskovsky Komsomolets.

C. Recent Events in Opposition to the Presidential Elections:

III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?

A. Individuals
Graham Allison		John Lloyd
Alexei Ulyukaev		Matthew Lantz
Cherno	20%	CP-RF	23%
CP-RF	17%	Cherno	15%
AgParty	11%	AgParty	15%
LDPR	10%	LDPR	11%
RChoice	9%	Yabloko	9%
Yabloko	9%	Lebed party	9%
Rybkin	9%	Rybkin	6%
		RChoice	6%
Missing	15%	Nationalists	5%
B. New Evidence:

AGPARTY REGIONAL MODEL: Russia is Our Home is supposedly looking at the Agrarian Party regional model for setting up a regional party network. The Agrarians are the first bloc to create a political hierarchy from the cropfield to the government. (Kuranty 5/30/95)

GORBACHEV WARNING TO DEMOCRATS: Article claims post-Yeltsin period has already begun. Urges democrats to join forces to see that free elections are held. (Moskoskiye Novosti 5/30/95)

VASILY TIMOSHENKO OP-ED ON STRENGTH OF PARTIES: "Russian parties are too small and weak to reflect public interests." CP-RF will finish first in the December elections; followed by the Agrarians, and Zhirinovskites. (Rossiya 5/30/95)

YELTSIN STAFF INTIMIDATING YABLOKO BACKERS? Rumors that the presidential staff allegedly recommended key bankers refrain from financing Yabloko. Yabloko member Grunov said many commercial firms have already backed away. (Obshchaya Gazeta 5/31/95)

D. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?

A. Individuals
Graham Allison		Matthew Lantz
Yeltsin	20%	Yeltsin	25%
Rybkin	10%	Cherno	25%
Cherno	10%	Lebed	10%
Yavlinsky	10%	Yavlinsky	10%
Lebed	10%	Rybkin	8%
Other	40%	Zhirinovsky	3%
		Other	19%
B. New Evidence:

DEFENSE MINISTRY ACCEPTS LEBED RESIGNATION: "He has one feature that no one else has: people trust him," says commentator Mikhial Leontyev, "He might win." (Financial Times, Boston Globe 6/2/95)

WHILE YELTSIN REFUSES TO ACCEPT LEBED RESIGNATION: Will refer issue to a review committee which is likely to reflect Yeltsin's desires and keep Lebed in military. (Boston Globe 6/7/95)

CHERNOMYRDIN SAYS WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT: Speaking before the Kransnodar branch organization of Our Home is Russia, Chernomyrdin said he would instead concentrate on advancing reforms by winning the December parliamentary elections. (omri 6/6/95) FILATOV ON OUTCOME OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: "Only Boris Nikolayevich will win." It has been difficult to keep Russia away from conflict and social war during five years. We came trough with minimal losses. Admits signs of weariness, but Yeltsin has traveled an uneasy path. (Moskovsky Komsomolets 6/1/95)