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The Russian Election Compendium
RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
MAY 22, 1995 No. 1
I. The Probability of Duma Elections in December 1995
| A. Individuals | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison (5/17): SDI Project |
75% | |
| John Lloyd (5/17): SDI Project FellowFinancial Times |
70% | |
| Alexei Ulyukaev (5/5): Russia's Democratic Choice Moscow Head |
90% | |
| Matthew Lantz (5/22) SDI Project |
80% | |
| B. Recent Events in Favor of Parliamentary Elections: | ||
| C. Recent Events in Opposition to Parliamentary Elections: | ||
YELTSIN VETOS DUMA ELECTION LAW: despite liberal aids promise that he will sign it. Has three major disputes: Seeks the number of Duma members elected off party lists to be limited to 150 as opposed to the current 225. This should give more power to regional elections and make the Duma less Moscow-centric. Second, minimum turnout for a valid election should be 50%, not the current 25%. Rybkin calls this aspect highly unlikely. Third, Yeltsin objects to the provision that calls for government officials to suspend professional activities two months before the elections. Claims such a provision would leave Russia without leadership for two months. Yeltsin will resubmit legislation to Duma with these changes. Unclear the reaction. Speaker Rybkin sees compromise as possible. CP-RF leader Zyuganov and leaders of Yabloko say they will fight the changes. Russia's Choice members feel law could be passed by July. (omri May 23-24, 95)
Izvestia reports that YELTSIN IS NERVOUS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF CHERNOMYRDIN'S RUSSIA IS OUR HOME bloc. Failure of Speaker Rybkin to form a similar bloc worries Yeltsin that Cheromyrdin may have a party organization to run for President. Therefore, Yeltsin may postpone December Parliamentary elections until June to force Chernomyrdin to run for the Duma and not the presidency. (omri 5/19)
IF TWO NEW BLOCS ARE AHEAD IN POLLS PRIOR TO ELECTION, ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD, IF NOT CANCELED, reports Rossiya. Article claims there are 100's of reasons to cancel elections, but two will be used: "Salvation of the Fatherland" and "Do not meddle in our work." Both themes make up Russia Is Our Home program. (5/17)
II. Probability of Presidential Elections in June
| A. Individual | Likelihood | Change From Last Week |
| Graham Allison | 40% | |
| John Lloyd | 55% | |
| Alexei Ulyukaev | 60% | |
| Matthew Lantz | 50% | |
ON MAY 17th PRESIDENT YELTSIN SIGNED THE LAW ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: Elections are to occur the first Sunday after the President's term expires in June 1996. Requirements for the presidential elections include obtaining 1 million signatures with no more than 7% from any one region. Funding will be private with total expenditure not to be more than 250,000 times the minimum wage. (At current rates minimum wage is Rb20,500 ($4.06/month) which would make maximum presidential campaign expenditure $1,017,286. Individual donations are limited to 50 times the minimum wage ($203).
KORZHAKOV ACCUSED OF CREATING ELECTION SLUSH FUND FOR YELTSIN: The money was supposedly skimmed by Yeltsin's bodyguard from Russia's arms, oil, and gem exports. Papers have recently begun reporting more revelations of abuses.
III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely Outcomes?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Graham Allison | John Lloyd | ||
| Alexei Ulyukaev | Matthew Lantz | ||
| Cherno | 20% | CP-RF | 23% |
| CP-RF | 17% | Cherno | 15% |
| AgParty | 11% | AgParty | 15% |
| LDPR | 10% | LDPR | 11% |
| RChoice | 9% | Yabloko | 9% |
| Yabloko | 9% | Lebed party | 9% |
| Rybkin | 9% | Rybkin | 6% |
| RChoice | 6% | ||
| Missing | 15% | Nationalists | 5% |
| B. New Evidence: | |||
WOMEN OF RUSSIA TO CAMPAIGN INDEPENDENTLY says leader Yekaterina Lakova in the May 18th issue of Rossiiskie vesti. She described the group as a centrist faction with its own niche and a stable group of supporters. (5/18/95 omri)
D. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?
| A. Individuals | |||
| Graham Allison | Matthew Lantz | ||
| Yeltsin | 20% | Yeltsin | 25% |
| Rybkin | 10% | Cherno | 25% |
| Cherno | 10% | Lebed | 10% |
| Yavlinsky | 10% | Yavlinsky | 10% |
| Lebed | 10% | Rybkin | 8% |
| Other | 40% | Zhirinovsky | 3% |
| Other | 19% | ||
| B. New Evidence: |
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YELTSIN LIKELY TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT: Moscow News claims Yeltsin has already decided to run for president and has appointed Sergei Filatov to be his campaign manager. (5/11/95 Moscow News)
CHERNOMYRDIN'S CHANCES FOR PRESIDENT: Tatyana Vorozheykina predicts Chernomyrdin may win the presidency if unpopular Yeltsin runs for reelection, saying in absence of left-wing balance Chernomyrdin's bloc is beginning to look like Mexico's ruling institutional-revolutionary party. (5/18/95 Obshchaya Gazetta)
CHERNOMYRDIN SAYS WILL NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN INTERVIEW: Claims bloc will win large support in Parliamentary elections and will remain as an organization for the presidential elections, but denied he would run for president on Itogi program. (omri 5/22)
LEBED'S CHANCES FOR PRESIDENT: Dmitri Furman claims Lebed's distance from political establishment, authoritarian ways, and moderate political views make Lebed a good logical candidate if he can keep this image through the election (5/18/95 Obshchaya Gazetta)
E. Political Positions: What the Parties are Perceived to Stand For
| A. LDPR: | restore empire and Russian pride protect Russians in near abroad end crime wave |
| B. Rus. Choice: | market economy democratic institutions join the world |
| C. Yabloko: | restore soviet union peacefully through economics and democracy more efficient economic reform with less pain democratic opposition alternative a new way |
| D. CP-RF | stand up for those left out of reforms re-establish education and social help by the state industrial policy which allows petty trade but state control of economy elsewhere, especially industry |
| E. AgParty | protect/represent agriculture industry lobby for agricultural subsidies |
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