The Russian Election Compendium: Pre-election Polls
Russian Presidential Election Conference
Recent Polling Results on the Presidential Election
Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government
A. Polls assessing popularity of candidates:
- "One of Russia's most prestigious polling organizations" (likely the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research {VTsIOM}) released a poll taken during the month of April assessing the popularity of the presidential candidates in the first and second round. The poll was reported in The Financial Times on 4/17:
In the first round:
In the second round:
Zyuganov 29%
Yeltsin 28%
- The UK Center for the Study of Public Policy at the University of Strathclyde found more than 50% of Russians believe President Boris Yeltsin should resign and fewer than 20% think he should be running for reelection. 75% of respondents blamed the current government for economic ills, while only 36% believe the former Communist regime is at fault. The study suggests despite Yeltsin's recent surge in the polls, underlying hostility still exists toward him. Reported in The Financial Times on 4/16.
- The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll assessing the popularity of the presidential candidates in the first round. The poll was reported in Kommersant Daily on 4/6.
Zyuganov 27%
Yeltsin 21%
(no other results reported in article)
- The Public Opinion Fund released a poll assessing the popularity of the presidential candidates in the first round. The poll was reported in Kommersant Daily on 4/6 and the Boston Globe on 4/7.
Zyuganov 21%
Yeltsin 19%
Only 6-7% of those responding claimed they would definitely not vote.
(no other results reported in article)
- The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll of 1596 individuals conducted from March 5-13, 1996 on the unpopularity of the presidential candidates. The poll was reported in the Kuranty on 3/26 and OMRI 3/27.
"Whom of the following politicians would you not like to ever see as President of Russia?" (Answers given taken from those who have decided to vote. {65%})
|
Candidate
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
| Zhirinovsky |
49% |
49% |
59% |
| Yeltsin |
43% |
40% |
39% |
| Zyuganov |
14% |
21% |
26% |
| Lebed |
9% |
8% |
12% |
| Yavlinsky |
6% |
4% |
6% |
| Sv. Fedorov |
4% |
2% |
5% |
| Hard to Say |
8% |
8% |
11% |
- The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) released a poll comparing the popularity of Zyuganov and Yeltsin in a head-to-head race. The poll was reported in the Financial Times on 3/25 and OMRI 3/21.
|
Month
|
Zyuganov
|
Yeltsin
|
| March |
37% |
29% |
| February |
39% |
27% |
| January |
41% |
21% |
- The Industrial Institute of Social and Ethnic Studies conducted a poll of 2000 individuals which included the option of voting for "Against All Candidates" a category that will appear on both rounds of balloting. In order to win the election in the second round, a candidate must attain more votes that the total votes cast against both candidates. The survey found that almost none of the candidates who make it to the second round would receive more votes than "Against All Candidates." Reported in Moskovskiye Novosti No. 11, March 12-24.
Voting in second round:
|
Candidates
|
Candidate 1
|
Candidate 2
|
Against All
|
| Zyuganov / Yeltsin |
32% |
25% |
36% |
| Yeltsin / Zhirinovsky |
28.5% |
14% |
50% |
| Zhirinovsky / Zyuganov |
11% |
34% |
47% |
| Lebed / Yeltsin |
28% |
24% |
39% |
|
Yavlinsky / Zyuganov
|
34%*
|
29%
|
31%
|
|
Yavlinsky / Lebed
|
35%*
|
25%
|
32%
|
| Yavlinsky / Yeltsin |
35% |
20% |
37% |
* Yavlinsky defeats "against all" and would become president.
B. Other Polls:
- A poll by the Public Opinion Foundation asked 1345 Russians "Which of the listed things will happen in the country in the event a Communist candidate wins the summer 1996 presidential elections?" Respondents were allowed to choose up to three answers. Obshchaya Gazeta reported the results in the No. 14 April 11-17, 1996 issue.
| Order will be reimposed and peace restored to the country. |
17% |
| There will be a return to empty shelves and shortages of everything. |
16% |
| Timely and regular payments of wages will be guaranteed. |
15% |
| There will be a return to low prices of stable foods and consumer goods. |
14% |
| Property that has of late passed into private hands will be restored to the working people. |
14% |
| There will be curtailment of democratic freedoms (censorship will be introduced, free exit of the country will be restricted, free elections will be abolished.) |
14% |
| Russia will end up in international isolation; the Cold War will resume. |
12% |
| The USSR will be restored. |
11% |
| Civil war will break out, chaos and anarchy will ensue. |
10% |
| Military conflicts will arise between Russia and the ex-USSR republics. |
9% |
- A poll by the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) reported in OMRI on 4/15 found 41% of those polled believe the Soviet political system existing before the 1990's was the best option for Russia. 27% supported Western-style democracy, and 9% supported the current system. On economic issues, 42% favored an economic system based on state planning, 33% favored a market economy, and 25% responded "difficult to say."
- A poll on the Soviet reunification by the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion and Research (VTsIOM) conducted from March 22-27 with a degree of error of +/-4% was reported in Kommersant Daily on 4/2:
30% had positive or rather positive views toward the State Duma resolution against the Belovezh Accords.
40% had negative or rather negative views of the Duma vote.
30% had no opinion of the Duma vote.
22% believed the resolution would speed rapprochement with the former Soviet states.
38% thought the resolution would aggravate relations with the CIS.
40% could not judge the consequences of the action.
The Interfax news agency released a poll on April 3 showing that 62% of the 1600 Russians questioned believed the first thing they wanted their candidate to do if elected was to end the war in Chechnya. The war displaced crime and was ahead of the economy as the main concern among Russians polled March 22-27. The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 4%. (Boston Globe 4/5)
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