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CIAO DATE: 2/00
Asia Society Address
December 7,1999, Hong Kong
Thank you for inviting me to speak to you today. It is truly an honor to be here in Hong Kong with my flagship, USS Blue Ridge. Bringing the 7th Fleet flagship to Hong Kong in December is actually a bit of a tradition, going back as far as anyone can remember. And I’m happy that we can be here again this year, keeping our tradition unbroken.
This is an interesting time of year to be making speeches that are both reflective and forward-looking. Though the turning of the millennium is just a trick of the calendar, it gives us a unique perspective as we sail from one dynamic and turbulent century into the unknown waters of the next.
A hundred years ago, as the world was in another time of centennial transition, American President Teddy Roosevelt wrote, ’Greet the new century high of heart, and face the mighty tasks which the coming years will surely bring.’
Today I want to talk to you about the mighty tasks that the U.S. Navy will face in the coming years, as we greet our new century here in the Western Pacific.
As you know, those of us in this room share a common bond. As business people in one of the great maritime hubs of the world, you all certainly have a common respect for the importance of free and open sea-lanes, and a common respect for the fact that regional security is critical to doing business. As a naval officer, I have spent my career in service to the notion’that freedom of navigation must be preserved; that security must be maintained; and that sea-lanes must be kept accessible to all.
A decade ago, as the Cold War was about to end, while I was a not-so-young Captain serving in the Pentagon, a scholar by the name of Paul F. Kennedy wrote a book entitled The Rise and Fall of Great Powers. In it, he reasoned that great nations throughout history eventually suffer from a condition known as ’imperial overstretch.’ As developing nations rise up and become new world powers, he argued, great nations find their economic and military supremacy fading. Kennedy warned that America could be beginning such a decline.
In the early 1990’s, as the American economy suffered the recessionary hardships of corporate downsizing, and when America began a series of post-Cold War reductions in the size of its military, many saw this as a vindication of Kennedy’s thesis. Moreover, his view was particularly believable here in the Far East’where the Asian tigers were rising, where America was closing its bases in the Philippines, and where a surging Japanese economy seemed ready to eclipse that of the United States.
Was this really a manifestation of Kennedy’s prophecy? Before we answer that question, let us look around the region and see what constants remain — and what changes are taking place.
Asia is a region of great dynamism and continuous transformation. Yet there are several enduring features that remain.
The first constant is the inherently maritime nature of this region. Asia is tied to the seas. You all know this. 80% of its population lives within 500 miles of the ocean. There are 52 million square miles of water in this region — seas that are filled with navigational choke points and strategic lanes of communication — the economic arteries that carry the lifeblood this region needs to trade, to draw its resources, and to survive. Over half of Asia’s oil is imported over the oceans from the Middle East — and by 2010, the region will import fully 74% of its oil — all by sea.
Indeed, more that any other region in the world, the people of Asia and the Pacific rely upon the seas not just for their prosperity, but for their very livelihood.
The second constant is that Asia is, and will continue to be, a vitally important region to the United States. In today’s age of global interdependence, Americans simply must be concerned about what goes on across the Pacific.
Why? For starters, because over 50% of the world’s economy derives from Asia — because over half of the people on our planet live here — and because Asia contains four of the seven largest militaries in the world. Half a million U.S. citizens live, work, and study in the region. About one-third of the United States’ two-way trade is with Asia, accounting for millions of American jobs. U.S. businesses conduct more than $500 billion in trade and have invested $150 billion throughout the region — including $21 billion right here in Hong Kong.
And the region is growing rapidly. Even when you account for the economic downturn in Asia of the last few years, the region’s growth as a whole over the past half-century is unsurpassed anywhere, and at any time in world history.
But there is another reason why Asia is important to us — a reason that transcends economics and jobs and touches the very core of who we Americans are. Asia matters to us because we have a shared emotional stake in its future. Three times in this century, America has fought wars here, and in the process has lost 200 thousand of its sons and daughters’lives added to the millions of Asians lost in those wars. This point is especially profound today — on the 58th anniversary of the bombing of Pearl Harbor.
Furthermore, there are over 9 million Americans of Asian descent living in the United States today — citizens who help give our nation an ever greater heart-felt reason to want the best for Asia and its people.
As U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albright said of Asia, ’No region of the world is more important to American security and prosperity, or to the values we share with others, or to our effort to meet new global challenges.’
The third enduring feature that defines the region is the integral role of the U.S. military, and in particular the U.S. Navy. Though most people picture the battles of World War II when they think of the U.S. Navy’s history in the Pacific, in fact our forward presence in this region dates back more than a century and a half.
The East India Squadron, established in 1835,was permanently stationed in these waters to protect commerce, paying regular calls here in Hong Kong, as well as to mainland China, the Philippines, and Singapore. During this period, U.S. Navy ships visited Australia for the first time–a full century before the Battle of Coral Sea. Commodore Matthew C. Perry negotiated Japan’s opening to international trade in 1854. We have had a virtually uninterrupted presence here for over 160 years — and we will continue to be here in the next century.
Two years ago, the United States commissioned a detailed review of our military force structure, which reaffirmed America’s commitment to maintaining the capabilities represented by about 100 thousand troops in Asia. It recognized that, although the Cold War had ended and there was a lesser need for U.S. forces in other parts of the world, our forces level in Asia needed to remain constant in order to maintain security and stability in the region.
So while the Navy and the U.S. military as a whole have downsized, the resulting loss of forces is not here in the Western Pacific — it is at the piers in San Diego and Norfolk — and it is at the bases in Europe, where U.S. force levels have declined by nearly half. But out here in Asia, our force level remains unchanged — at about 100 thousand.
In the U.S. 7th Fleet, we have actually increased the capabilities of our forces, adding Aegis cruisers and destroyers, forming the USS Belleau Wood amphibious ready group in 1992, and replacing the aging USS Independence aircraft carrier with the recently-overhauled USS Kitty Hawk.
The 19 permanently forward-deployed ships of the U.S. 7th Fleet are the centerpieces of our forward presence in Asia. They are 17 steaming days closer to locations in Asia than their counterparts based in the continental United States.
Our bases in Japan contribute immeasurably to our presence in the Western Pacific. Furthermore, Japan has also recently revised their Defense Guidelines, which further enhance bilateral cooperation and rear-area support for U.S. forces during contingencies.
We also have important access agreements throughout Southeast Asia — including Singapore, which graciously hosts the 7th Fleet Logistics Force commander and his staff, hundreds of ship visits, and is constructing a new pier at Changi which will be able to accommodate visits by U.S. aircraft carriers.
Additionally, the Philippine Senate earlier this year ratified its Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States. Since then, we have had six ship visits to the Philippines.
U.S. Navy port calls to Hong Kong have also been a long-time feature, first under British rule, and then continuing with equal frequency through the 1997 reversion to Chinese sovereignty. Our port calls were interrupted following the tragic, accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in May. But we are encouraged by the fact that Beijing has begun allowing our ships and planes to visit Hong Kong again. In addition to providing welcome rest and recreation for our crews and an economic boost to Hong Kong, the ship visits also serve as a visible demonstration of Hong Kong’s openness and status as an international city.
Yes, U.S. presence in Asia is clearly a constant. As Secretary of Defense William Cohen said, ’Today, no Asia-Pacific nation can doubt U.S. commitment to remain engaged.’
But just as there are constants in the Asia-Pacific region, so too are there changes and uncertainties.
The first change in the Asia Pacific region is an apparent move toward multi-lateralism, or ’security communities’. Unlike Europe, Asia for the past century has been characterized by a series of bi-lateral agreements, such as the alliances the United States has with Korea, Japan, Australia, Thailand, and the Philippines. But the bilateral approach to regional security in Asia may be evolving still.
Last year’s report by the U.S. Department of Defense titled U.S. Security Strategy for the East Asia Pacific Region talks of the developing ’security pluralism, including expansion of multilateral dialogue in the region.’
Indeed, we have seen several instances in the recent years where such multilateral approaches have emerged — such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the Four Party Talks in Korea, the Trilateral Forum on the North Pacific, the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue, and the South Pacific Forum.
We have also seen moves towards multi-lateralism in our exercises with other nations. This past March, for instance, 7th Fleet hosted a multilateral training exercise near Guam, where we worked alongside our navy counterparts form Korea, Singapore, Australia, and Canada. And in Southeast Asia we have taken our existing bi-lateral exercises with several nations and put them together under one umbrella known as Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training, or CARAT. Though CARAT is actually a series of individual bi-lateral exercises, it remains an important way of engaging multiple nations.
And most recently, we have seen a multi-lateral approach taken in the ongoing operations in East Timor. Following the lead of Australia, forces have come together from Korea, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, the United States, and even Fiji. The humanitarian mission in East Timor is truly a positive sign that Pacific nations can come together in time of need.
These all represent the beginnings of regional approaches to pluralism, or as U.S. Commander in Chief in the Pacific, Admiral Dennis Blair, terms it: ’security communities.’ He recently said, ’We are seeing a general trend away form classical multi-polar, balance of power thinking towards the development of security communities. This is the way ahead — groups of nations that genuinely do not want or intend to fight each other and are willing to contribute armed forces and other aid to UN-mandated and humanitarian operations.’
The second area of change is the security landscape of the region. Though U.S. presence here is stable and constant, the Asian security environment in which we operate is undergoing change.
We are seeing new security challenges emerging — rising nationalism, nuclear proliferation, drug trafficking, organized crime, and piracy on the high seas that threatens commerce. We are seeing renewed skirmishes between India and Pakistan. We are witnessing concern over competing claims to the Spratly Islands. We are seeing a Japan that is more willing to provide rear support for U.S. forces, and to support non-combat operations abroad.
And we are seeing a Korean Peninsula that is poised for change. As last year’s Taepo Dong missile launch reminded us, North Korea—though weakened—is still capable of inflicting terrible destruction in South Korea and beyond.
We are also seeing the emergence of China. The United States does not view China as an adversary. On the contrary, we seek to encourage China to step forward as a secure, open, prosperous, and peaceful country. In recent years, our navies have built a friendship — taking important steps to increase mutual confidence and decrease the possibility of miscalculation.
China and the United States have established a Military Maritime Consultative Agreement to help avoid incidents at sea and create a venue for discussion between our operational naval officers and theirs.
As you know, China put its military relationship with us on hold following the unfortunate, accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade. Here in Hong Kong, the most visible consequence of that was the suspension of U.S. Navy ship and aircraft visits.
The United States expressed its profound regret over the Belgrade incident, and we are ready to assume our military relationship when China is ready. Indeed, such reconciliation is to the benefit of both countries and the entire region.
But we are encouraged. We are encouraged that the PLA participated in last week’s Search and Rescue exercise with U.S., regional and local Hong Kong authorities. And we are encouraged by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Kurt Campbell’s visit to Beijing last month, where preliminary discussions with Chinese officials took place on restarting military contacts. Yes, we are encouraged and hopeful that our nations can resume our important military-to-military relations.
The third and final change I want to tell you about is within our Fleet and our Navy.
The past decade has seen significant development in the scope of the missions that we can conduct. We have shifted our national interest from a single threat to regional challenges in the attainment of global stability. Today we are more focused on bringing our military resources to bear to help solve regional problems, on engagement with other countries on issues of global concern, and on operations other than war.
More than ever, our naval forces today are involved in a wide range of missions, from crisis response and deterrence, to strike warfare and direct intervention.
Today, it is a fact of life that the U.S. Navy will probably never undertake a full operation on its own again. Our operations will always be with joint or coalition forces. Virtually every military action that the U.S. has participated in in the past decade — the Gulf War, the Balkans, Somalia, Haiti, and East Timor — were all joint or coalition efforts.
Indeed, if Commodore Perry were to sail into Tokyo Bay today, he would probably do so not as a U.S. Navy Commodore, but as a Combined Task Force Commander. Gone are the days of any one service or any one nation going it alone.
As a Navy that is more joint, more combined, and more focused on operating in coastal waters, it is clear that we are poised to enter the next century as a flexible and credible deterrent.
In closing, let me read you some of the words that were written a century ago by American Secretary of State John Hay. He said, ’The Mediterranean is the ocean of the past, the Atlantic is the ocean of the present, but the Pacific is the ocean of the future.’
Hays’ words were prophetic. Today, the Pacific is America’s past, America’s present, and America’s future.
So was Paul Kennedy’s forecast correct? Is the sun setting on U.S. involvement in the Asia-Pacific region? Is American influence eroding? Most certainly not. We have been here for over a century and a half. The stakes are too high, our interests too great, for us not to remain committed to this important part of the world.
The region is changing, as are the U.S. Navy’s capabilities and focus. But our involvement, our presence, and indeed our commitment remain constant.
Thank you again for your gracious hospitality.
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