U.S.-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century: Questions for Discussion

American Assembly at Columbia University

November 1996

First Discussion Session

U.S. National Interest: What Kind of China Would the United States Like to See in 2010?

What would be undesirable?

• Powerful military, capable of making war outside China?
• Belligerence toward the United States, toward its neighbors, and toward world and multilateral organizations?
• Cold war between the United States and China?
• Intimidation of other Asia countries to get compliance?
• Invasion of Taiwan?
• Strong economy or weak economy?
• Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction?
• Despoiling of Chinese or global environment?
• Strains on world energy resources and food supply?
• Massive numbers of refugees?
• Totalitarian dictatorship?
• Chinese efforts to gain domestic unity by encouraging anti-foreign sentiments against the United States and Japan?
• Others?

What would be desirable?

• Strong or weak economy?
• Domestic chaos or national unity?
• Open markets, part of world economic system?
• Positively disposed to cooperation with the United States?
• Active positive role in world organizations?
  • Respect international regimes for controlling weapons of mass destruction, nuclear
  • proliferation, control of drug traffic, preservation of seas, and the atmosphere?
  • Active positive role in Asian multilateral organizations dealing with customs and
  • telecommunications?
• Growth of democracy, freedom, and human rights in China?
  • Freer publication and media?
  • Voting?
  • Reduction of the number of political prisoners?
• Chinese cooperation in dealing with worldwide emergencies?
• Others?

Second Discussion Session

East Asian Security: Can China Assist Rather than Threaten Regional Stability?

In next fifteen years China is likely to be a regional, not a global military power.

What is the current security structure in East Asia?

• U.S. alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, New Zealand
• Only the United States has region-wide power capabilities:
  • Other powers are allied to or adjust to U.S. power
• Relatively stable balance of power:
  • Are we confident U.S. commitments will remain strong?
  • Does the U.S.-Japan security relationship reduce the risks of an independent militarized Japan that could lead to a China-Japan arms race? What might
  • cause Japan to militarize or go nuclear? Does China see the U.S.-Japan security
  • relationship as helping or hurting Asian stability?
  • Can Japan, China, and the United States working with Korea develop a long term
  • vision for the Korean Peninsula that will preserve stability?

Where might serious conflicts erupt in East Asia?

• China and Taiwan
  • What might lead to conflict: Taiwan independence?
    • U.S. encouragement to Taiwan independence?
    • Chinese impatience?
  • How can the United States maintain good relations with Taiwan (and Tibet) while reducing risks of conflict?
• North and South Korea
  • Problem of heavily armed hostile powers
  • North needs to open to solve economic problems but is frightened: will opening destabilize their regime?
• Indonesian implosion after Suharto?
• What can the United States do to reduce the danger that these conflicts will erupt?
• What should the United States do if conflicts arise? Tibetan rebellion? Taiwan Straits conflict? Korean conflict?
• Can China help resolve conflicts as it did in U.N. peacekeeping in Cambodia and in denuclearizing North Korea?

Can the United States work with China to help shapef a new balance of power for the East Asian region that makes room for a stronger China?

• Encourage transparency and mutual trust to reach a balance of power that all are comfortable with?
• Encourage China to be transparent, to have military modernization that does not include long- range offensive capabilities that could lead to an arms race and possibly a new cold war?
• Agree on arms control, nuclear testing, and proliferation?
• If dialogues go well, how far might the United States and Chinese cooperate without disturbing China's neighbors?

To what extent will multilateral organizations be helpful in maintaining stability in Asia?

• Role of ASEAN regional forum (ARF) in airing problems and building trust
• Can Northeast Asia build a regional security forum? (China, Japan, North and South Korea, Canada, United States?)
• How much regional cooperation is possible by 2010?

Third Discussion Session

Global Economic Vitality: Chinese Impact on Trade, Investment Funds, Resources, Environment

In the next fifteen years, Chinese growth is likely to have a major impact on global trade, investment, finance, resources, and the environment. For discussion, let us assume, as most specialists believe, that China will continue to grow rapidly, and that it will not suffer political collapse or disintegration

If present trends continue without great change, in 2010 how large will China's economy be? Its foreign trade? Demand for world capital and resources? Impact on environment?

• What will be the impact on world trade if Chinese exports begin to grow at double-digit rates?

If Chinese exports to the United States continue to grow, how will this impact on U.S. interests? How strong will U.S. political pressures to reduce exports become?

If Chinese demand for capital investment continues to grow, how will this affect the world supply of capital and how might the world adjust to China's capital needs?

What interest does the United States have in maintaining access to Chinese markets and how might this best be achieved? How might U.S. government policy assist U.S.-based firms seeking market access?

If Chinese demand for resources, especially petroleum and food, continues to grow, how will these demands be met and what impact will this have on world markets?

What accounts for China's good record in participation in international economic institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund?

How should the World Trade Organization respond to China's request for membership? Can WTO remain strong without China's participation? Will easy access for China's joining WTO weaken the organization? Are there ways the United States can help China resolve domestic issues (opening of agricultural markets and state firms to global competition) and set up a timetable for membership that would reduce U.S.-Chinese hostility and help China make orderly preparation for membership.

Fourth Discussion Session

U.S. Policy toward China: How do we Rank our Priorities?

Are there alternatives to resolving these issues with China other than gaining cooperation and dialogue? Are cooperation and dialogue incompatible with pressure on human rights?

Is reestablishing cooperative dialogue necessary to resolve other long-term issues?

• How should we reestablish the underlying trust necessary to get the dialogue going?
• At what levels can this be achieved?
• What adjustment does this require in U.S. policy?
  • What principles are so important that they should not be sacrificed just for improvement of relations?

What are the next priorities in dealing with China?

• Avoiding conflict over Taiwan? (Also over Tibet and the South China Sea)
• Establishing a stable security structure in East Asia?
• Dealing with issues of proliferation, arms control?
• Promoting progress in democratization, freedom, and human rights? (Hong Kong as potential focus for these issues) How can these issues be balanced with other priorities?
• Gaining agreements on environmental preservation, planning for energy and food resources?
• Keeping U.S. access to Chinese markets?
• Reducing the trade deficit?
• Resolving issues in the Korean peninsula?
• Offering Chinese leaders and future leaders opportunities for special training on global issues
• and practices?
• Others?

How should priorities be implemented?

• How should the US work with allies in dealing with China?:
  • Japan, South Korea, European Community, Australia, Canada, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, New Zealand
• How should we work with other key countries? Russia, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia
• How should we work with global and regional organizations on issues related to China (e.g., UN, ASEAN, APEC)?
• How might various U.S. nongovernmental organizations play an enhanced role in implementing U.S. national goals?
  • Universities and think tanks (Role in training, research, dialogue)
  • Business
  • Media (How to get more depth and perspective?)
  • Citizens groups, philanthropic groups
• What role might multilateral and global organizations play?
• How can bilateral negotiations be better structured?

How do you describe the overall approach you would recommend the United States take concerning China? Should it be "comprehensive engagement," "containment," "linking tracks," or "____"?