From the CIAO Atlas Map of Asia 

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U.S.-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century

American Assembly at Columbia University

February 1997


Project Proposal

The American Assembly is embarking on the third and fourth phases of a project on "China/U.S. Relations in the Twenty-First Century: Fostering Cooperation, Preventing Conflict." The goal of this four phase project is to use the convening and consensus-building power of The American Assembly to produce a set of policy recommendations for the Clinton administration that will promote a constructive long-term relationship between the two countries.

Phases III and IV will help develop broad-based recommendations and support.

Background

In 1981 The American Assembly co-sponsored a program on "The China Factor," which examined the impact of the normalization of relations with the People's Republic of China. Since then, China has grown at rates far more rapid than had been then predicted. Although Japan and the "four little dragons" (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) grew at a rate of around 10 percent per year for two decades, their combined population is one-sixth of that of China. China has been developing at that rate for approximately seventeen years, and specialists estimate that this will continue for the next few decades. This has changed the nature of China's ambition, its role in the region, and its relationship with the United States.

An advisory committee comprised of individuals with expertise and direct involvement in this topic recommended that The Assembly reexamine the U.S.-China relationship and U.S. national interests with the purpose of developing coherent, balanced policy recommendations for the Clinton administration.

China is now absorbing more international capital than any other country in the world. The growth of market forces has created greater inequalities between regions and people within China who have better access to markets and those with fewer opportunities. Economic changes are pushing China in the direction of becoming a more open society politically, but that trend has its ups and downs. Elections have been introduced in villages and in many factories, and the range of ideas discussed in the media has vastly increased, fostering a growing demand for greater freedom of speech. New tensions have arisen because of corruption. China's military has also grown rapidly and is expected to modernize greatly over the next fifteen years. Many people are concerned that the combination of economic growth and increased military expenditures will lead to expansion that may threaten neighbors.

The economics and politics of the region have similarly been transformed. South Korea and Taiwan have become democracies. The economies of "the four little dragons" have been transformed into regional operations centers that are providing services for the China market, while their basic manufacturing operations have been substantially transferred to China to take advantage of low-cost labor. This has greatly changed the dynamics of the region, but the problems of divided governments in China and Taiwan, and North and South Korea have become more acute since the end of the cold war.

In addition, China has swiftly, and to many surprisingly, become an exporting colossus, with a growing trade surplus with the United States that exceeds $30 billion and soon might surpass Japan's. This has complicated negotiations for China's joining the World Trade Organization, which both China, and the United States apparently desire, but on conditions not yet mutually agreeable.

Since 1992, when the Bush administration agreed to sell F-16s to Taiwan, tensions between the People's Republic of China and the United States over the future of Taiwan have increased, and have been intensified by the American reactions to the 1989 Tiananmen incident and to the growth of the economy, and especially to the flowering of democracy in Taiwan. The visit of Lee Teng-hui to Cornell last year became a symbol of this serious underlying problem. President Clinton made several visits to Taiwan before he became president, but he has not visited mainland China, and senior officials have only recently begun to meet with high-level Chinese leaders.

Perhaps the most acute challenge to U.S.-China relations may result from the July 1, 1997, return to Chinese sovereignty of Hong Kong, if it produces incidents of human rights suppression.

As a result of the tensions over Taiwan and Hong Kong, and Beijing's concerns that the United States is trying to contain and slow down its growth, relations between the United States and China declined in 1996 to their worst level since the opening of China in the early 1970's. Recent high level meetings and planned visits appear to offer a structure to improve relations, though continued human rights incidents continue to provoke concerns in the U.S. In this new circumstance, it is important to consider how China and the United States can avoid a new cold war and work to create a relationship that will provide stability between what may prove to be the two great powers of the world in the early twenty-first century.

The first phase of this initiative began with a delegation to China in June, 1996 that was chaired by Leonard Woodcock, the first U.S. Ambassador to the Peoples Republic of China. Meetings were held at the highest level with the Chinese on the mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Indonesia and Singapore. The report of this delegation's visits is enclosed.

Phase II was an American Assembly program at Arden House, Hrriman, New York, in November 1996 that was chaired by Sam Nunn, former United States Senator; and John C. Whitehead, Chair, AEA Investors Inc. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and former Deputy Secretary of State under George Shultz; and directed by Ezra F. Vogel, Henry Ford II Professor of the Social Sciences and Director of the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University. Sixty-one U.S. experts representing all points of view (including those who participated in the Phase I visits), identified America's long-term national interests concerning China and formulated policy recommendations for the incoming administration.

Numerous follow-up activities included: a panel discussion hosted by The Asia Society on November 21, 1996 at which key members of the Arden House program summarized and lead a discussion of The Assembly report and recommendations for the incoming administration; similar sessions in Washington, D.C. and New York organized by the Council on Foreign Relations; op-ed pieces in a variety of publications across the country (a number of which are enclosed); and interviews with Assembly participants, including Sam Nunn and Assembly president Dan Sharp, for venues as diverse as the "Voice of America" and The China People's Daily.

In addition, the Republican leadership of the House has asked The American Assembly to help them organize a meeting to launch a new U.S.-China caucus of approximately forty members of the House from both sides of the aisle, and possibly also the Senate. The specific date and agenda will be determined when congress convenes in February.

Phases III & IV

Phase III of the project will be a bilateral Assembly in the fall of 1997, in San Francisco. The Pacific Council on International Policy (PCIP) will co-sponsor this program and negotiations are currently underway with the Chinese People's Institute for Foreign Affairs in Beijing for their formal involvement in the program. Approximately 35 Americans and 35 Chinese will use the Arden House findings as the basis for their joint recommendations on the management of the U.S.-China relationship.

Phase IV will be regional American Assemblies in various cities across the country in 1997 and 1998 and proposed meetings in mainland China and Taiwan. Regional American Assemblies are traditionally held in cooperation with educational and other institutions across the United States. They are similar to the national meetings at Arden House except that the participants are drawn locally and the discussion agendas are often given a regional emphasis. They also prepare their own reports which are widely distributed in the region and to national leaders.

Planning is well underway in Seattle (October 16-19, 1997, organized by Washington State China Relations Council and Boeing); Atlanta (September 18-21, 1997, The Carter Center); Houston (Asia Society); Hawaii; the U.S. Air Force Academy (February 18-22, 1997); Minneapolis and Chicago; with the possibility of meetings in several other cities.

Wang Dohan, the former Mayor of Shanghai and mentor to China's president Jiang Zemin and other very senior Chinese leaders have expressed great interest in The Assembly and its process and in looking at ways for continuing involvement concerning China. In this regard, The Assembly is exploring the possibility of introducing a Shimoda-type conference in China-- (in the late 1960's The American Assembly and the Japan Center for International Exchange (JCIE) inaugurated a series of conferences to examine U.S.-Japan relations. Known as the Shimoda Conferences, these meetings marked a pioneering non-government effort to examine crucial, policy-relevant issues in the bilateral relationship). A similar interest has been expressed by the government of Taiwan to hold a regional Assembly in Taipei.