CIAO DATE: 01/03

The Coming Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order

Victor A. Utgoff, Editor

MIT Press

July 2000

 

Abstract

How will continued proliferation of nuclear weapons change the global political order? This collection of essays comes to conclusions at odds with the conventional wisdom. Stephen Rosen and Barry Posen explore how nuclear proliferation may affect U.S. incentives to confront regional aggression. Stephen Walt argues that regional allies will likely prove willing to stand with a strong and ready United States against nuclear-backed aggression. George Quester and Brad Roberts examine long-term strategic objectives in responding to nuclear attack by a regional aggressor. Richard Betts highlights the potential for disastrous mistakes in moving toward and living in a world heavily populated with nuclear-armed states. Scott Sagan explains how the nuclear nonproliferation policies best suited to some states can spur proliferation by others. Caroline Ziemke shows how the analysis of a state's strategic personality can provide insights into why it might want nuclear weapons and how its policies may develop once it gets them. And, Victor Utgoff concludes that the United States seems more likely to intervene against regional aggression when the aggressor has nuclear weapons than when it does not.

 

Table of Contents

Front Matter and Foreword (PDF format, 5 pgs, 52 kbs)
General Larry D. Welch, USAF (Retired)

1. Pressures for Nuclear Proliferation and Crises

   1. The Specter of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons Proliferation (PDF format, 13 pgs, 108 kbs)
      Victor A. Utgoff

   2. Rethinking the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation: Three Models in Search of a Bomb
      Scott D. Sagan

   3. Universal Deterrence or Conceptual Collapse? Liberal Pessimism and Utopian Realism
      Richard K. Betts

   4. The National Myth and Strategic Personality of Iran: A Counterproliferation Perspective
      Caroline F. Ziemke

2. Potential Evolution and Consequences of a Nuclear Crisis with the United States

   5. Nuclear Proliferation and Alliance Relations
      Stephen Peter Rosen

   6. U.S. Security Policy in a Nuclear-Armed World, or What If Iraq Had Had Nuclear Weapons?
      Barry R. Posen

   7. Containing Rogues and Renegades: Coalition Strategies and Counterproliferation
      Stephen M. Walt

   8. The Response to Renegade Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction
      George H. Quester

   9. Rethinking How Wars Must End: NBC War Termination Issues in the Post-Cold War Era
      Brad Roberts

   10. The Coming Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order—A Combined Perspective
       Victor A. Utgoff

Contributors

Index