CIAO DATE: 08/02

Russia’s Nuclear and Missile Complex: The Human Factor in Proliferation

Valentin Tikhonov

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

April 2001

Summary

This report examines the situation facing the inhabitants of the Russian nuclear weapons and missile complex. Russia inherited this sprawling network of cities and production facilities after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In its inherited form, this complex represents a serious burden for the troubled Russian economy, is vastly oversized given the current international situation, and is a potential source of nuclear and missile proliferation and instability. Across the entire Russian landmass, hundreds of thousands of previously pampered scientists and technicians face dire economic conditions. Their economic hardship dramatically increases the risk that they will be forced to sell their skills or materials at hand to the highest bidder, and also increases the difficulty Russia will have recruiting new scientists and technicians to join its military work force. The potential threats of migrating experts and materials diverted to proliferators have been a major source of concern for the United States and other countries throughout the 1990s. The disturbing demographic trends discussed in this report, however, reveal another growing concern: that it will be increasingly difficult for Russia to train, recruit, and maintain the type of experts it needs to ensure a safe, secure, and reliable strategic nuclear deterrent. This less widely acknowledged problem raises long-term security questions for Russia, the United States, and their strategic partners.

 

Table of Contents

Introduction

Part 1: The Study

Overview

Findings

Part 2: The Surveys

List of Figures

List of Tables

Nuclear Cities

1. Changes in Specialist Recruitment

2. Changes in the Qualitative Composition of Specialists Working in Closed Cities

3. Living Standards in Closed Cities

4. Moonlighting

5. Specialists’ Financial Situation

6. Potential and Actual Emigration

7. Personnel Shift toward Private Business

8. Personnel Training for the Nuclear Industry

9. Nuclear Security and Personnel

Missile Cities

10. Migration as a Factor in the Evolution of Missile Cities

11. Specialists’ Qualifications

12. Wages and Salaries

13. Income and Housing

14. Moonlighting

15. Financial Situation

16. Potential Emigration

17. Actual Emigration

18. Personnel Shift toward Private Business

19. Personnel Training for the Missile Industry

20. Missile Security and Personnel

About the Author

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace