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SIPRI Yearbook 1998: Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security
Stockholm Institute for Peace Research
May 1998
Part I. Security and Conflicts, 1997
Margareta Sollenberg, Peter Wallensteen, Trevor Findlay, Peter Jones, Gunilla Flodén, Vladimir Baranovsky, Adam Daniel Rotfeld
Chapter 1. Major Armed Conflicts
In 1997, 25 major armed conflicts were waged in 24 locations around the world. This represents a decline in the number of conflicts – there were 27 major armed conflicts in 1996 – and a continued downward trend for the period covered in the conflict statistics, 1989–97. The number of conflict locations remained the same in 1996 and 1997. By the end of 1997, after the re–establishment of the cease–fire in the Northern Ireland conflict, there were no active major armed conflicts in Europe. After the resolution of the conflict in Tajikistan, there were no active major armed conflicts stemming from the breakup of the Soviet Union or Yugoslavia, although the underlying political disputes remain to be resolved.
All the new conflicts in 1997 were on the African continent, and Africa was the only region which showed an increase in the number of conflicts. Africa was also the region with the largest share of conflicts with a high level of intensity, that is, with more than 1000 battle–related deaths in one year.
The conflict between India and Pakistan was the only interstate conflict recorded in 1997, all others being internal. However, as in previous years other states contributed regular troops in some of the recorded conflicts.
Appendix 1A, by Margareta Sollenberg and the Uppsala Conflict Data Project, presents data on the major armed conflicts of 1997.
Chapter 2. Armed Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution
There were several major successes in armed conflict prevention, management and resolution in 1997, with peace accords concluded in some lesser-known conflict situations. Historic all-party negotiations began over the Northern Ireland conflict, agreement to begin talks on peace treaties was reached by the two Korean states and by Japan and Russia, and peace accords were achieved in Bangladesh, Liberia, Nicaragua and Tajikistan. In contrast, military coups unravelled the peace settlements in Cambodia and Sierra Leone; the peace processes in Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chechnya and the Middle East remained deeply troubled, and diplomatic efforts failed to prevent or halt wars in Central Africa. Fighting erupted in the Central African Republic, western China and Comoros; the beginnings of armed resistance appeared in Kosovo; and fighting continued or was resumed in a number of other countries.
Since the end of the cold war the international community's capacity for conflict prevention, management and resolution has shown steady improvement, although professional conflict resolution and prevention capabilities at the UN and in regional bodies remain underdeveloped and underfunded. The largest peace-enforcement/peacekeeping mission, involving 31 000-36 000 troops, was the NATO-led Stabilization Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina. While most of the regional initiatives continued to stem from Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), there were also a number from African, Latin American and Asian organizations.
Appendix 2A, by Susanna Eckstein, presents a table of multilateral peacekeeping operations in 1997.
Chapter 3. The Middle East Peace Process
After what could have been a breakthrough in early 1997 over Israeli withdrawal from Hebron, renewed Israeli settlement activity stalled the Israeli–Palestinian talks. The peace process was further marred by new outbreaks of terrorist activity. There were no official talks between Israel and Syria, and the level of violence in Lebanon remained high. Internal fighting in Algeria worsened; conflicts in the Kurdish regions of Turkey and Iraq continued; and Islamic terrorists struck in Egypt, calling into question the government's assertion that it had defeated them. One hopeful indication came in Iran, where the pragmatic Mohammed Khatami was elected president by a wide margin. Although the new president has widespread popular support, he will face an uphill battle in trying to effect change against the wishes of the religious élite.
Appendix 3A contains excerpts from the 1997 Hebron Accord.
Chapter 4. Russia: Conflicts and Peaceful Settlement of Disputes
In 1997 Russia intensified its efforts to promote settlement of the unresolved conflicts over territory and status across the former Soviet Union. At the same time there was growing concern in Moscow about challenges to its position from competing influences, particularly in the oil–rich areas of Central Asia.
Russia played a prominent role in launching and promoting a political reconciliation process in Tajikistan. It increased pressure for negotiations between the conflicting parties in the Trans–Dniester region of Moldova, Abkhazia in Georgia and Nagorno–Karabakh in Azerbaijan, where the peace process remained fragile. Russia and Chechnya moved towards a practical modus vivendi in their postwar relations, although the future status of Chechnya remained an open question.
While Russia continued to place a high foreign policy priority on developing the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as a reliable Russian–centred power pole, the viability of this policy was called into doubt as CIS member states increasingly sought to distance themselves from Russia.
Chapter 5. Europe: The Transition to Inclusive Security
With the absence of an external threat to Europe the main challenges and risks are now of a domestic nature, stemming from economic and social problems. For this reason, the non–military elements of stability are gaining in importance, in particular the attempts to institutionalize the changes taking place in NATO 'from defence of member territory to defence of common interests'. Developments in 1997 in the parallel processes of enlargement of the European Union (EU) and the NATO Alliance brought Europe a step closer to establishing a system of inclusive security. While there was no real breakthrough in the shaping of such a security system, the potential for enhanced Europe–wide cooperation was advanced by the establishment of the Euro–Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC). In addition, the 1997 NATO–Russia Founding Act offers a basis for a lasting and inclusive peace.
While the tasks defined for the Organization for Security and Co–operation in Europe (OSCE) during the cold war period have been largely fulfilled or have outlived their relevance, it has conducted significant activities in the areas of conflict prevention, crisis management and resolution of disputes.
Appendix 5A contains the NATO–Russia Founding Act, the Basic Document of the EAPC, the Madrid Declaration on Euro–Atlantic Security and Cooperation, excerpts from the Amsterdam Treaty, and the text of one of the three identical Protocols of Accession to the North Atlantic Treaty.
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