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Science Technology and the Economic Future edited by Susan Raymond
Thomas R. Pickering
United States Ambassador to the Russian Federation
Based on remarks delivered at the New York Academy of Sciences on October 28, 1994. In May 1997, Ambassador Pickering became Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.
In a country with a history as rich and as deep as Russia; it may seem premature to offer an assessment of sweeping political and economic reforms that, after all, are only three years old. Such skepticism may he particularly acute because it is barely a year since the post-reform political struggle reached its most intense and bloodiest level. In modern-day Russia, however, three years is equivalent to an era. So an assessment is appropriate and the results are positive. The process may not always be smooth and progress may he uneven, hut overall, democratization and economic reforms are working in Russia.
Political Progress...
Democracy's roots are growing deeply into Russia's political soil. In December 1993, Russia conducted a fair and free election for a legislative body and adopted a constitution untainted by the ideology and precepts of the Soviet era. The legislature began its second session on October 5, 1994, a significant milestone given the dire predictions in September 1993 that the dissolution of the Supreme Soviet would only prolong internal political confrontation and erode support for reforms. On the contrary, and despite significant political differences, the Russian legislature has shown that it can work constructively with the executive across a range of areas. Equally significantly, the overwhelming majority of average Russians are adjusting to a new political and economic reality. The majority rejects a return to a totalitarian system and accepts that a representative form of government, with all of its problems, holds the key to a better future.
...Combined With Economic Reform...
Economic reforms are also taking hold. Over the past year, the Russian government has worked responsibly to control inflation, adhere to budgetary targets, and establish a legal framework for commercial transactions. Russia has completed the first phase of the largest privatization plan ever attempted. Despite great difficulties, Russia has also embarked upon a reform of the agricultural sector.
There are, of course, highly publicized setbacks. Many difficulties, including the threat of crime and corruption, remain for foreign investors. But progress is measurable and evident throughout the country. The stock market continues to flourish. Retail trade is vigorous. Private investment capital has begun to flow into the country. The question is no longer whether economic reforms are real, but how to speed up a process that is well under way and making palpable progress.
...Reinforce a Firm Commitment of U.S. Support...
The United States continues to support the process of democratization and economic reforms in many ways and at a number of levels. Perhaps the most tangible example of such support is financial assistance to Russia. In 1993-1994, U.S. aid to Russia totaled $2.5 billion; in 1994-1995, U.S. aid programs are projected to total $850 million. The financial role of the United States government, however, is necessarily limited in these days of tight budgets and competing priorities. Ultimately, the engine that must drive economic progress in Russia is not government assistance, but private investment. Toward that end, at the Washington summit in September 1994, President Clinton and President Yeltsin signed a framework agreement for economic partnership that will lower barriers to trade in both countries, and provide a foundation for further private investment and commercial transaction.
...Together with an Enduring Concern for Human Rights
In recognition of Russia's commitment to the protection of human rights, best exemplified by its constitution's strong bill of rights, President Clinton has declared Russia in full compliance with the Jackson-Vanik requirements of the Trade Act of 1974, which denied Most Favored Nation Status to those countries who limited free emigration by their religious minorities. This will allow trade between the two countries to flow with consistency and confidence.
This does not mean, however, that the U.S. government's concern over human rights issues in Russia has ended. Significant progress has clearly been made. Scores of political prisoners no longer waste away in Russian gulags. Psychiatry is no longer abused as a political tool. Nevertheless, many of the fundamental human rights guaranteed to Russian citizens in the new constitution exist only as future hopes. Prison conditions are abysmal. Police brutality abounds. Rights of refugees, both internal and external, are overlooked. Discrimination, cronyism, and outright corruption permeate all levels of civic and official structures.
The solution to these and other human rights problems will come only as the process of democratization advances. The Russian government will raise the priority of human rights on its political agenda only as society learns more about its own rights and begins to exercise them through the political system. Thus, U.S. support for democratic reform at the grass roots is an important element of our support for human rights in Russia.
The Future of Russian Science
The great achievements and long traditions of Russian science enjoy world renown. Indeed, it was through science that the strongest voices of protest spoke out in defense of democratic principles and individual freedoms. Perhaps the most notable, but certainly not the only, such leader was Dr. Andrei Sakharov.
Paradoxically, now that democratic freedoms are attainable, the future of Russian science is itself in question. There is widespread debate about whether or not scientific institutions will survive the reform process and, if so, in what direction they will ultimately go. There is a clear answer to the first question: Russian scientists will indeed survive the current financial crisis and political reform process. The "brain drain" process among Russian scientists is a process of emigration from government-supported science in Russia to private sector opportunities abroad. As the reform process in Russia deepens, and renewed efforts to support science take hold, young Russian scientists will return with experience, knowledge, and the proper tools to work in their fields.
The future orientation of Russian science will depend, to some extent, on whether the United States and other Western countries provide the opportunities for cooperation that will enable Russian scientists to emerge from years of isolation and secrecy. That sup port must come from both government and private sources.
U.S. - Russia Scientific Collaboration
During the 1993 Vancouver Summit, President Clinton and President Yeltsin committed the U.S. and Russia to a renewed partnership on science and technology by establishing a U.S.-Russia Commission of Technological Cooperation on energy and space co-chaired by Prime Minister Chernomyrdin and Vice President Gore. The mandate of the Commission has now been extended to include basic sciences and the environment.
Among the first initiatives of the Commission is closer cooperation in space exploration. Under the space agreement, the U.S. will provide Russia with as much as $400 million between 1994 and 1997 in the form of payments for equipment and services for a joint Shuttle/Mir flight program and the early stages of planning for the space station. These and other collaborative ventures will provide more comprehensive data in such areas as environmental monitoring and global climate change research.
In the area of energy, extensive collaboration on fossil and nuclear energy is under way to identify improved technologies, develop environmental technologies, and assist with the commercialization and privatization of Russian facilities. The U.S. and Russia are also working jointly to upgrade the safety of nuclear power reactors in Russia and improve operating procedures, regulatory guidelines, and emergency response capabilities. The legal framework established for these efforts will also con tribute to closer private collaboration for civilian nuclear power. The Commission of Technological Cooperation also has established an agreement that, for the first time, opens all fields of science and technology to joint cooperation. The agreement, for example, provides for protection of intellectual property rights in cooperative programs. In addition to S&T efforts within the Commission, the State Department last year disbursed $700,000 to Russian scientists for global climate change projects. The Agency for International Development (AID) also has programs for environmental cooperation, notably in the Lake Baikal region.
The U.S. national laboratories have developed collaborative relationships with their Russian counterparts for projects ranging from basic research to the development of new commercial technologies. These efforts include improvements in the safety and security of nuclear materials, a critical issue in the post Cold War world.
National Security and Defense Conversion
Defense downsizing and military conversion represent areas of real difficulty for Russia, as they do in the U.S. Whereas the U.S. seeks to reduce defense spending from 6 percent to about 4 percent of GDP in Russia the numbers are much higher, and the consequent political and economic pain is much sharper. The Soviet economy was overwhelmingly militarized, and today large swaths of that military-industrial complex lie idle. A very large portion of the 50 percent decline in Russian industrial output is attributable to defense cutbacks.
In this context, the United States is helping Russia reduce its stockpiles of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, as well as associated missile delivery capability. Four Russian defense firms have already been paired with U.S. joint venture partners for con version projects. Another eighty-three such firms have been identified for assistance, pending availability of program financing, which is contingent on the quality of their proposals. Finally, the U.S. has funded the Independent Defense Enterprise Fund, which received an initial capitalization of $40 million from Congress to help finance commercially viable defense conversion projects. While U.S. assistance is important, the marker will ultimately determine which Russian defense firms survive.
New Collaborative S&T Institutions
Further evidence of international collaboration to secure Russian science can be found in two new institutions. The International Science and Technology Center, jointly funded by the U.S., Russia, Japan, and the European Union, has already funded some seventy six proposals for non-military research by former weapons program scientists. Private sector commitment has also been critical. The greatest contribution has been made by the International Science Foundation, established in late T 992 with start-up funds of over $100 million from George Soros to promote basic science research. Chaired by Dr. James Watson of the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, the ISF has made thousands of individual and institutional grants for research and funded the travel of hundreds of Russian scientists to international conferences. The Russian and American governments are now discussing ways to work together to continue this initiative.
The private commercial sector is also active in creating new initiatives. Various U.S. companies are joining with Russian scientists to establish new centers for R&D that are profitable and mutually beneficial. The opportunities are real, and the investments will pay off.
A Time For Action
Russia is well on its way to creating the conditions necessary for successful economic reform and thriving investment. But we cannot sit back and wait for the perfect time for further support to arrive; the perfect time for action will only come with our involvement. The United States has a proud record of supporting Russia in political partnership, security consultations, and scientific collaboration over the past two and a half years. The coming years will be equally critical, and success will be ensured only by collaboration between Russia and the United States and between the private and public sectors within Russia.
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