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Science Technology and the Economic Future edited by Susan Raymond
Robert Stempel
Executive Director, Energy Conversion Devices, Inc.
Based on remarks delivered to the New York Academy of Sciences, October 17, 1995.
Battery-powered electric vehicles will become a key part of the nation's transportation system. Electric vehicles are quiet, fun to drive, pollution free, convenient, and require little or no maintenance. But the reason that electric vehicles are now emerging as a potential force in the automotive marketplace is not due to automotive innovation, but rather to technological innovation in the electronic and information systems industries. From the early 1900s though the 1970s and 1980s, the auto. industry worked on electric vehicles. The results were, by and large, electric mechanical devices. Energy use was inefficient. Reliability was poor. Batteries were heavy, and energy density was low.
In 1987, however, innovation opened a new chapter and new possibilities. A solar-powered car, called the Sunraycer, crossed Australia at an average of 42 miles an hour for almost 2000 miles without ever fully discharging its batteries. The breakthrough was a combination of efficient design and computer-controlled power electronics. Computer systems allowed management of the energy collected from the sunlight to be used in the most efficient manner possible.
Interests of the Automotive Industry
Shortly after the Sunraycer achievement, General Motors began to develop a battery-powered vehicle to test the concept of computer energy management and solid-state power electronic devices. The result was the GM Impact, which operates on lead acid batteries and provides about a 60-mile driving range in the city and up to 80 miles on the highway. 1 Why would a company like General Motors, whose entire business is premised on the internal combustion engine, be interested in electric vehicles? GM believes that their electric vehicles can occupy a key place in the household vehicle fleet as well as in a commercial fleet. For an urban commuter, electric vehicles will present an efficient, attractive option. For a commercial operator with a predetermined delivery route, they will present similar advantages. Indeed, electric vehicles have proved their utility in the delivery business. United Parcel Service (UPS) operated electric delivery vehicles in Manhattan from 1950 until 1985. Each truck was really a warehouse on wheels, operating only 10 miles per day. But, given distances in Manhattan, this was perfectly acceptable. Nevertheless, even if all potential delivery fleet owners bought electric vehicles, the market would still be too small to be attractive. To achieve sufficient volume, the market must extend to the household. The second reason electric vehicle innovation is important relates to foreign competition. There is fierce competition between U.S. and Japanese auto makers over who will be the first to market an electric car. The United States occupies a market leadership position in power electronics and computer technology. If that leadership is not applied to transport, the nation will miss a competitive opportunity. But, whether we are trying to reach American households or Japanese markets, improved technology will be key.
What Happens to Technology with Mandates?
Much of the electric vehicle experimentation to date has resulted from an industry-wide recognition of the potential of the market and a series of technological innovations. The technology is far from perfected; indeed, it is changing rapidly. What will happen to innovation if large markets, such as California or New York, mandate that a percentage of manufacturers' products be zero-emission (which means electric) by 1998 in order to be able to sell gasoline vehicles In that market? I believe the answer will be a drop In Innovation, a shrinking of the potential market, and, ultimately, a fall-off in interest in electric vehicles within the automotive industry. Why?
First, we simply do not have enough information to meet such a mandate at this point. We do not know enough to lock in on a single vehicle technology and have the industrial capacity for production in sufficient volume by as near-term a date as 1998. Current technology is going to become obsolete very quickly. For example, in power electronics, reliability is improving every day, costs are going down, and control algorithms are getting better.
Battery technology provides another example. A great deal of experimentation with battery alternatives is directed toward increasing speed and range. A recent nickel/metal hydride battery is now to the point that it can operate a car on the highway at between 45 and 60 miles per hour and achieve 200 miles on a single charge. In the city, it can regularly get 100 miles per charge.
But none of these innovations is ready for a mass market. The critical need now is to push those improvements out farther, not to lock a single improvement into a large production process. If we do not continue up the innovation curve, we will not have an ultimately successful vehicle.
Second, with a less-than-optimal product, demand will wither. The electric vehicle is more than just a car; it is a consumer electronic device. Today consumers live and breathe electronic devices. They are used to taking them out of a box; switching them on; and having them operate immediately, quietly, and efficiently, with a minimum of time spent reading the owner's manual! Consumers are used to low or no maintenance for their electronic devices, and count on reliability and durability. Younger consumers may own two or three computers. They have no fear of electronic devices. Potential customers are going to have very high expectations of electric vehicles. If mandates result in underdeveloped products being rushed to market, those expectations will be disappointed. And every market analyst knows what happens to products that fail to meet consumer needs.
In short, mandates will force production, but they will not assure sales. If major manufacturers are forced to market to uncertain demand with predetermined sales volume, technology will be underdeveloped and customers will reject the product. Mandates will actually set back electric vehicle development.
Partnership Philosophy Needed
What should we do? A critical element of the electric vehicle strategy should be a partnership between the auto industry, the electric power utilities, and the government. The objective should be to develop infrastructure and to create several demonstration programs to launch the technology to achievable public expectations. Government policy is critical here. Governments can provide incentives to stimulate early purchase of vehicles by retail customers, to encourage the development of public charging networks by public utilities, and generally to expand and deepen the market.
Endnotes
Note 1: Editor's Note: Shortly after this presentation, the Impact, now called EV1, was introduced commercially in Los Angeles, San Diego, Tucson, and Phoenix. The cars are selling well. Back.
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