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Science Technology and the Economic Future edited by Susan Raymond
John F. Ahearne
Director, Sigma Xi
Based on remarks delivered to the New York Academy of Sciences, September 18, 1996.
Finding a way to develop a national consensus on something as complex and potentially divisive as environmental priorities for the nation is a difficult, yet critically important problem. A concerted and unique effort to gather and combine a comprehensive set of views and opinions on future environmental priorities, National Forum on Science and Technology Goals, took place under the auspices of the National Academy of Sciences in 1995. It is important to understand the National Forum process to understand the importance of the findings.
The National Forum Process
In 1992, the Carnegie Commission on Science, Technology, and Government recommended that a series of national forums be convened in which a broad array of opinion would be sought to reach consensus on the potential contributions of science and technology to meeting long-term societal goals in the United States. With the support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York the National Academy of Sciences organized a National Forum in 1995. Environment was chosen as the first topic. The Forum began its work by seeking the views of a wide range of individuals and organizations on how science and technology could address problems of the environment. On the basis of the framework that emerged from that survey, the National Academy commissioned nine technical papers and then invited ~8 experts to four days of discussions in plenary sessions and small groups to generate ideas and to discuss priorities. Both the original survey and the subsequent conference attendees were selected to mirror the variety of views and institutions in the nation. The process involved federal and state government officials, industry, non governmental organizations, and activist groups. The Forum sought, and received, a broad spectrum of opinions. The result was extremely broad ranging. The organizing committee took this range of views and developed six critical areas of focus that are reported in the final National Research Council publication. 1
Economics and Risk Assessment
One of the most important conclusions in the report, and one with which some technologists might disagree, was that social science has a substantial contribution to make to environmental issues, and one of its particular assets is economic analysis and risk assessment.
Much can be contributed through this analytic technique, and much improvement In the technique is possible.
Risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis can be substantial aids to environmental decision-making. Nevertheless, improvements are needed. Present regulatory strategies frequently do not differentiate sufficiently between minor and major risks. The costs incurred to reduce risks often do not bear a consistent relationship to the magnitude of the risk involved and the number of people potentially affected. More research is needed to improve the analytic tools available to decision-makers. New approaches are needed for assessing the value people place on the services provided by ecosystems: Can models better accommodate such values? Can they predict changes in human behavior? Can quantitative risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis be integrated so that the health and ecological factors studied are the ones that the public understands and cares about?
New economic strategies, using the incentive approach rather than the command and control approach, have significant advantages in the long run, both in making environmental improvements more effective and in reducing the resources needed to accomplish that end. However, incentive-based approaches have proved harder to apply than theorists had predicted, although the results are in agreement with predictions. More experimentation is needed.
Environmental Monitoring in Ecology Monitoring is critical to better
understanding of ecological systems. But the data available to predict trends in the environment are decidedly poor. Few measurements are taken over extended periods of time in the same manner or in different places that are directly comparable, the Hawaiian significant advantages in CO2 data being the most notable exception. The desirability of directly comparable measurements has long been recognized, but the great amount of environmental data collected over the past several decades has generally failed to meet these standards. Indeed, there is often a general lack of agreement on the basic characteristics to be measured. In short, the U.S. monitoring system is outdated and inadequate.
A pressing need exists for compiling data that will characterize environmental change, evaluate the consequences of human activities, and provide an information base for sustainable management. The Office of Science and Technology Policy in the White House should review and evaluate the quality of existing measurement and monitoring systems. For its part, the Congress should assign either an existing or a new federal research organization the mission of working with the scientific community to identify the key subjects for ecological research, aimed at identifying and developing reliable indicators of the health and sustain ability of the environment in ecosystems and establishing monitoring systems that meet society's decision-making needs.
Chemicals in the Environment
Of particular importance are new chemicals in the environment that are a source of stress on the ecosystem. This includes chemicals that have unanticipated by-product effects and chemicals whose daughter products from degradation can be dangerous The pollution threats are to both air and water. Whereas 25 years of progress in air and water quality systems is to be applauded, there is still a great need to improve the ability to predict the environmental consequences of a new chemical on a variety of scales before the great expenditure of resources involved in getting that chemical to the market is undertaken.
Our predictive modeling abilities are poor, especially for the chronic effects of chemicals in the environment. Better test methods are needed to evaluate models and monitor the long-term environmental impacts of single compounds that are emitted as a result of new products or processes. The models must extend to both by products and degradation products of such products or processes, and to the biochemistry of both plant and animal species. Standardization of testing should be international, as should responsibility for testing.
Energy Systems
Energy is critical to economic progress not only in rich nations, but, even more so, in nations seeking to climb farther and more rapidly up the ladder of global prosperity.
Yet, the environmental effects of meeting these energy needs, particularly by the use of fossil fuels, can be large. The impacts are local, regional, and global. The most environmentally troublesome aspect of the present global energy system is the use of fossil fuels. Worldwide de fossilization, however, would require much greater emphasis on three major R&D directions—renewable energy sources; energy efficiency and conservation and safe publicity
Sustained research will lead to more options for energy generation and use, less emission of carbon to the atmosphere, and more efficient use of natural resources. For electrical power, more research is needed for non fossil fuel sources because per capita electricity use is strongly correlated with development. Research efforts are necessary for renewables, such as photoelectric cells and biomass, whose widespread use will not occur until the cost of electricity from these sources is so low that large public subsidies are no longer required to make them cost competitive.
Use of coal is another critical research target. Sixty percent of the electricity generated in the United States comes from coal. China, Russia, and India likely will rely to a large extent on coal. Improving the efficiency and reducing the emissions of coal plants will benefit the United States directly, and also the globe through the impacts of improvements in Europe and Asia.
Similarly, nuclear energy requires research attention. The nuclear industry has been crippled by the high cost of nuclear plants, government inability to solve problems of the safe and reliable disposal of waste, and the subsequent disenchantment of investors and the public. Research is required in all of these areas.
Another key area for attention is transportation. More than 50% of energy from petroleum products is used in transportation. I Improving the fuel efficiency of automobiles will help with this problem, but another important strategy is switching from vehicles powered by internal combustion engines to electric or hybrid electric hydrogen-fueled cars.
Industrial Ecology
Industrial ecology refers to the analysis of how the entire process of manufacturing can be improved by focusing on efficiency and environmental impact, not only within one company or industry, but also across industries. The objective is to develop strategies to integrate the design, production, and consumption of products to reduce the use of resources. One industry's wastes become another industry's input. Reusing and recycling "waste" may open up new opportunities for efficiency.
Currently, the approaches to industrial ecology are experimental and not completely agreed upon or accepted in many industries. Indeed, the increasing decentralization of formerly vertically integrated industries presents new problems for implementation of industrial ecology methodology. Nevertheless, the concept has intrinsic merit, and a great deal of further research and experimentation is called for.
Population
Global population trends bode ill for the environment. As noted in the formal National Forum report, over the next 50 years, global economic output is expected to quadruple and total population to double to about 11 billion people. Such population growth, in the context of existing modes of industrial and agricultural production and consumption, has the potential to significantly impact the environment.
The population growth problem is extremely sensitive, with all of the complexity inherent in the human condition. It is critical that we move toward seeing population growth as a product of the intricate interrelationships between birth rates, child survival, economic development, education, and the economic and social status of women. The United States, through partnerships with other nations and with international organizations, must support and participate in the scientific and technological research needed by international population programs to better understand both the environmental dimensions of the problem, and complex approaches to its resolution.
Note 1: Linking Science and Technology to Society's Environmental Goals, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1996. Back.
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