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CIAO DATE: 06/05

Reshaping Rogue States: Preemption, Regime Change, and US Policy toward Iran, Iraq, and North Korea

Alexander T. J. Lennon and Camille Eiss

MIT Press

August 2004

 

Abstract

In January 2002, President George W. Bush declared Iran, Iraq, and North Korea constituents of an "axis of evil." US strategy toward each of these countries has clearly varied since, yet similar issues and policy options have emerged for US relations with all three. Reshaping Rogue States seeks to improve our understanding of Iran, Iraq, and North Korea as well as of current and future policy options to combat the threats these nations pose. The book's comprehensive analysis of preemption and regime change debates the circumstances under which each policy might be justified or legal under international law. Prominent strategists and policymakers consider alternatives to preemption -- including prevention, counterproliferation, and cooperative security -- and draw conclusions from efforts to bring about regime change in the past.

Reshaping Rogue States also reviews the differing policy challenges presented by each so-called axis member. Specifically, it considers how the United States might strike a balance with North Korea through multilateral negotiations; the changes within Iran that call for changes in US policy; and the dilemmas the United States faces in post-Saddam Iraq, including continuing insurgency, instability, and the feasibility of democracy.

Alexander T. J. Lennon is Editor-in-Chief of The Washington Quarterly, the journal of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Camille Eiss is associate managing editor of The Washington Quarterly, the journal of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

 

Table of Contents

The Contributors

Acknowledgments

Introduction: The Bush Revolution in Rogue Strategy (PDF, 9 pgs, 63 KB)
Alexander T. J. Lennon and Camille Eiss

Part I: Preemption

  1. A Work in Progress: The Bush Doctrine and Its Consequences
    Francois Heisbourg

  2. International Law and the Preemptive Use of Military Force
    Anthony Clark Arend

  3. Prevention, Not Preemption
    Lawrence Freedman

  4. The Best Defense: Counterproliferation and U.S. National Security
    Jason D. Ellis

  5. Redefine Cooperative Security, Not Preemption
    Gu Guoliang

Part II: Regime Change

  1. What Justifies Regime Change?
    Pascal Boniface

  2. When to Target Leaders
    Catherine Lotrionte

  3. Military Occupation: Legally Ensuring a Lasting Peace
    David B. Rivkin Jr. and Darin R. Bartram

  4. Lessons from Iran
    Barry Rubin

Part III: North Korea

  1. Toward a Grand Bargain with North Korea
    Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki

  2. China and the Korean Peninsula: Playing for the Long Term
    David Shambaugh

  3. A Blueprint for U.S. Policy toward a Unified Korea
    Derek J. Mitchell

  4. Focus on the Future, Not the North
    Victor D. Cha

Part IV: Iran

  1. Confronting Terrorism
    Gary Sick

  2. Debating Iran's Nuclear Aspirations
    Shahram Chubin and Robert S. Litwak

  3. Continuous Regime Change from Within
    Ali M. Ansari

  4. Understanding Iran: Getting Past Stereotypes and Mythology
    Mahmood Sariolghalam

Part V: Iraq After Saddam

  1. Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq
    Steven Metz

  2. Democracy in Iraq?
    Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack

  3. Can Federalism Stabilize Iraq?
    Dawn Brancati

  4. Not in My Backyard: Iraq's Neighbors' Interests
    Jon B. Alterman