CIAO DATE: 2/5/2008
2005
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University
A flurry of political change in the Middle East has created the appearance of an “Arab Spring”: elections in Iraq and the PA (Palestinian Authority), mass rallies and elections in Lebanon, President Husni Mubarak’s decision to allow other candidates to compete in the Egyptian presidential elections, and local elections in Saudi Arabia. What is the essence of these changes, and what is their cause? Are they the fruit of President Bush’s policy to advance democracy in the Middle East, or are they perhaps an outcome of the media revolution currently sweeping the Arab world? Are they the harbingers of a genuine revolution that has been provoked by the considerable political, economic, and social frustration in the region, or are they merely a series of superficial coincidences that have nothing to do with comprehensive change? Are the various leadership successions inducing gradual transformations, or are the new heads of state simply waging the same persistent, ageold struggle to preserve the status quo?
Introduction..........7
FATHERS AND SONS, FROM JUMHURIYYA TO “JUMLUKIYYA”
Yoram Meital The Struggle for the Reins of Power in Egypt .............17
Eyal Zisser In the Name of the Father: Is Bashar in Control of Syria?..........49
Yehudit Ronen Mu‘ammar al-Qadhafi and Sayf al-Islam – Father and Son at a Historical Crossroads? .........55
AT THE CORE OF REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE
Ephraim Lavie Between Revolution and Statehood– The Palestinians in the Aftermath of the Arafat Era ....67
Ofra Bengio Upon the Fall of the Ba‘th: The Struggle between the Elites in Iraq .......91
Meir Litvak Iran’s Rebellious Youth............. 119
THE SURPRISING STABILITY OF THE MONARCHIES
Joshua Teitelbaum The Next Generation of Saudi ‘Ulama: A New Pillar of Support for the Regime? ......135
Asher Susser All in the Family: Generational Continuity in Jordan..........145
Daniel Zisenwine Political Elites amid a Changing Reality in Morocco .............. 163