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CIAO DATE: 07/02
Russia's Decline and Uncertain Recovery
Thomas E. Graham, Jr.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
May 2002
Summary
The precipitous decline of Russian power and influence in the world may stand as the most significant development for international relations of the last quarter of the 20th century. Never in modern history has a great power fallen so far so fast during peacetime. This decline initially brought the four-decades-long Cold War to a hasty, unexpected conclusion, and subsequently the Russian state and people have experienced a traumatic decade of chaos and widespread impoverishment that can be compared with the Time of Troubles at the turn of the 17th century or the Bolshevik Revolution and ensuing civil war in the early 20th century.
In this monograph, Thomas E. Graham, Jr., clearly and succinctly analyzes the sources of Russia's decline during the Soviet period and the dangerous fragmentation and erosion of state power in Russia during the 1990s. In finding roots in Russian history for the oligarchic regime of the Yeltsin years and the increasingly authoritarian characteristics of the Putin regime, he challenges the appropriateness of the transition paradigm for what has emerged in Russia during the past ten years. According to Graham, whether Russia will achieve sustainable economic growth, political stability, and renewed international influence remains an open question.
Table of Contents
Foreward
Acknowledgment
Introduction: Misreading Russia
The Emergence of the New Russia
The Crumbling of the Russian State
Putin's Russia
Russia's Strategic Weakness
The United States and Russia
Epilogue: New Possibilities
Grounded in RealismNotes
About the Author
About the Russian and Eurasian Program
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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