CIAO DATE: 11/03

China's New Journey to the West: China's Emergence in Central Asia and Implications for U.S. Interests

Bates Gill and Matthew Oresman

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

August 2003

 

About the Book

One of the most intriguing developments in Central Asia over the past decade has been China's renewed attention to diplomacy in the region. China's interest in building relations with Central Asia is not startling given its history, but the agility and creativity it has recently exercised in doing so has taken many by surprise. China has moved rapidly from the difficult task of delineating and disarming its borders with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to building a multilateral organization and growing economic and security ties, all the while working to alleviate traditional suspicions among Central Asian states about the Chinese government's true intentions.

This report argues that China's prominence in Central Asia will grow over the next decade, particularly if Russia's position continues to wane and the strategic attention of the United States is drawn elsewhere in the years ahead. However, on the basis of geography and economic reality alone, China appears well placed to expand its influence in the region over the long haul. Central Asian states will continue to seek robust engagement with China as their transportation infrastructure and developing economies become more intertwined, and China will likely continue to exercise a light touch with its diplomacy to assure stable, productive relations along its interior frontiers, dispelling fears that it is seeking regional hegemony. Given the above, the authors make the following recommendations for U.S. policy in Central Asia:

• Stay committed to the region;
• Encourage great power cooperation to address common problems;
• Establish low-level cooperative projects;
• Remain vigilant on political reform and human rights; and
• Engage China in the region.

 

Table of Contents

Foreword

Executive Summary

1. China's Rise in Central Asia

2. From the Silk Road to the SCO
   From Ancient to Contemporary Times
   Rapprochement in Central Asia and the "Shanghai Spirit"
   Impact on China's Relations with Russia
   

3. China's Interests and Policies in Central Asia
   Strategic and Diplomatic Interests
   National Security Interests
   Settling Border Disputes
   Energy and Trade Interests
   Bilateral Relationships
   China and Other External Powers in the Region
   Issues on the Horizon
   Conclusion: Challenges, Opportunities, and China's Commitment

4. Implications for the United States: Conclusions and Recommendations

Appendix 1. Project Participants

Appendix 2. Conference Programs

About the Author

Contents, Forword, Executive Summary (PDF format, 12 pages, 889 KB)