CIAO DATE: 05/2012
November 2011
Center on International Cooperation
Fragile states are beset and defined by recurring cycles of violence, and violence feeds their chronic underdevelopment. Violent and impoverished countries have poverty rates that are, on average, 20 points higher than their impoverished but peaceful counterparts. Past work on conflict has often sought a simple, one and the accompanying silver bullet to solve the problem of fragility. We now know with confidence that the causes of conflict are multiple and complex, and generally occur in combination. We know that it is difficult to sustain an exit from conflict, but not impossible;; that inclusive political settlements are important to peace;; that building trust and confidence around the political settlement and in reformed institutions is vital to its success. We also know this takes time often decades. Despite the complexity of causes, the overarching reasoning behind these conflicts is straightforward: to put it plainly, violence occurs in contexts where institutional alternatives to violence are weak or nonexistent;; weak institutions combined with a range of political, security and economic motivations (and external pressures) creates the conditions for conflict and violence. There are important gaps in our knowledge though. Among the most important are: understanding the dynamics of political settlements;; of confidence and risk-taking;; and of legitimacy. In policy terms, key gaps exist in understanding the role of external instruments in overcoming trust deficits on job creation;; on judicial institutions;; and on sub-regional capacity. We also need more knowledge about organized crime, terrorism, and their links to civil conflict.
Resource link: Development in the Shadow of Violence: A Knowledge Agenda for Policy [PDF] - 586K